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noshten on 08 July 2021
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Top 20 2020 Q3:

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 749.362
  2. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure - 528.581
  3. [PS4] Ghost of Tsushima (Sony) - 399.370 NEW
  4. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 273.939 NEW
  5. [NSW] Paper Mario: The Origami King - 256.899 NEW
  6. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 228.076 NEW
  7. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics - 219.575
  8. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 180.243 NEW
  9. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 179.182
  10. [PS4] Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco) - 161.014 NEW
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co.) - 106.362
  12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 99.574
  13. [NSW] Smash Ultimate - 99.099
  14. [PS4] The Legend of Heroes: Hajimari no Kiseki (Nihon Falcom) - 96.140 NEW
  15. [PS4] Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris (Bandai Namco Games) - 87.144 NEW
  16. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 85.666
  17. [NSW] Super Mario Party - 84.644
  18. [NSW] Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles (Square Enix) - 56.187 NEW
  19. [PS4] Marvel's Avengers (Square Enix) - 54.373 NEW
  20. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 50.851

NSW - 14
PS4 - 6

TOTAL: 3.996.281

NSW TOTAL: 3.017.997 (75.5%)

PS4 TOTAL: 978.284 (24.5%)

Last year in Q3 it was mostly New Horizon & Ring Fit stock maintaining momentum for the Switch in the summer. The major titles launched on the Switch in the Quarter were 3D All-Stars, The Origami King, eBaseball as the only titles that broke 200K sales, from a perspective of smaller titles there was definitely no much coming out as Crystal Chronicles was the only other new game to surpass 50K sales. 

On the PS4, Ghost of Tsushima accounted for over 40% of the Software sales but there were plenty of mid-range titles from eBaseball, Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost, Hajimari no Kiseki, Alicization Lycoris. 

This year everything is pointing towards Baseball Spirits, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Yu-Gi-Oh as the games that should surpass 300K, in the 100K to 300K range we have Skyward Sword, Shin-kun, Ace Attorney Chronicles, Lost Judgement & Tales of Arise,  

Overall Konami is set to have a very strong summer but Capcom aren't looking to shabby with their line-up either. Q3 of 2020 is comparable to 2021 for Nintendo overall, simply because of New Horizon & Ring Fit adding so much sales between them. Overall I can see software ending up over 3 million on the Switch this quarter simply by virtual of having 18/20 of the Top 20 games.

It's PS ecosystem that will continue it's major decline of software as it's unlikely that they can surpass 300K across Tales of Arise & Lost Judgement, considering those games come out at the end of the Quarter and I doubt the initial shipment retailers will order will be sizable after struggling to sell off Village which is the highest profile game on the ecosystem this year(only Demon Slayer has a chance to outsell it PS4/PS5 combined). 

  

HARDWARE TOTAL: 1.325.232 

NSW HARDWARE: 1.287.203 (97.1%)

PS4 HARDWARE: 38.029 (2.9%)

In terms of hardware last year Switch managed an average of 99K sales per week during the summer, we need to see if OLED announcement has any impact on hardware sales. Still there is a good chance of matching 2020 this Quarter or being only slightly down, which would still put 2021 well ahead of 2020. 

PS4 basically was on-life support last year so obviously in terms of market share YoY, we will see growth - software wise it's where we will see PlayStation's problem continue in 2021. 

Last edited by noshten - on 08 July 2021