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noshten on 09 July 2021
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HARDWARE Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 4.427.926

NSW Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 3.954.085 (89.3%)

PS4 Q1-Q3 TOTAL 2020: 473.841 (10.7%)

HARDWARE TOTAL 2021: 3.705.738

NSW TOTAL 2021: 3.085.951 (83.3%)

PS5 TOTAL 2021: 619.787 (16.7%)

In terms of hardware Switch doesn't need that much to still be ahead of 2020, with 73K per week average being enough to stay ahead with the OLED launch to follow shortly. More likely I can see the Switch actually ending up at around 4.17 million by the end of Q3 with an average per week of around 90K, I don't personally think OLED will impact demand all that much until very late in September. 

Last year PS4 basically didn't get any stock during Q3, so its likely that we see PS5 at over 800K by the end of the Quarter, which would be pretty decent result in terms of hardware if we had the software sales to match it. But as discussed the software sales don't actually match the current user base of the PS5 and are actually lower than X360 achieved during the same time, there is also basically no games on the PS5 that are likely to surpass 100K this quarter either. While the PS4 audience is declining very quickly. 

Still in terms of hardware we would see Switch & PS5 surpass 5 million units by Q3 with OLED, Pokemon Remakes and December there to ensure 2021 is the peak year. 

Famitsu 2020 Q1-Q3 Top 30:

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) - 5.754.082
  2. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) - 1.106.546
  3. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square) - 932.821
  4. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (Pokemon Co) - 757.221
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 525.216
  6. [PS4] Ghost of Tsushima (Sony) - 399.370
  7. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo) - 391.195
  8. [NSW] Smash Ultimate (Nintendo) - 383.816
  9. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) - 366.328
  10. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 317.449
  11. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) - 297.159 
  12. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo) - 273.939
  13. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo) - 267.467
  14. [NSW] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX (Pokemon Co.) - 259.513 
  15. [PS4] Resident Evil 3 (Capcom) - 258.676 
  16. [NSW] Paper Mario: The Origami King (Nintendo) - 256.899
  17. [PS4] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 243.769 
  18. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 228.076
  19. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (Sony) - 222.943 
  20. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 (Konami) - 180.243
  21. [NSW] Luigi's Mansion 3 (Nintendo) - 179.438
  22. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) - 172.831
  23. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) - 168.345
  24. [PS4] Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. MaxiBoost On (Bandai Namco) - 161.014 
  25. [PS4] Nioh 2 (Koei Tecmo) - 156.772
  26. [NSW] Fishing Spirits (Bandai Namco) - 156.140
  27. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) - 155.834
  28. [PS4] Persona 5 Scramble: The Phantom Strikers (Atlus) - 149.898
  29. [PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot (Bandai) - 149.654 
  30. [NSW] Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 (Sega) - 138.550

NSW - 20

PS4 - 10

TOTAL: 15.011.204

TOTAL NSW: 12.156.044 (81%)

TOTAL PS4: 2.855.160 (19%)

Famitsu 2021 Top 30:

  1. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise (Capcom) - 2.279.942
  2. [NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu (Konami) – 1.018.875
  3. [NSW] Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury (Nintendo) - 798.431
  4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo) – 582.086
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo) – 441.511
  6. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo) – 435.353
  7. [NSW] Minecraft (Microsoft) – 329.216
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo) – 312.968
  9. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Pioneers of Olive Town (Marvelous) – 281.140
  10. [NSW] New Pokemon Snap (Pokemon Co.) - 253.358
  11. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass (Pokemon Co.) - 242.855
  12. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo) - 219.311
  13. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Nintendo) - 204.227
  14. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo) - 194.291
  15. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
  16. [NSW] Miitopia (Nintendo) - 179.233
  17. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
  18. [NSW] Game Builder Garage (Nintendo) - 143.648
  19. [NSW] Bravely Default II (Square Enix) – 136.091
  20. [NSW] Rune Factory 5 (Marvelous) - 127.968
  21. [NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush (Nintendo) - 112.115
  22. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars (Nintendo) - 104.782
  23. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Nintendo) - 104.343
  24. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe (Nintendo) - 103.273
  25. [NSW] Fitness Boxing 2 (Imagineer) - 83.547
  26. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (Nintendo) - 80.508
  27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 77.692
  28. [NSW] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 72.796
  29. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo) - 70.860
  30. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (Nintendo) - 69.066

NSW - 28

PS4 - 2

TOTAL: 9.409.734

NSW TOTAL: 9.059.486 (96.3%)

PS4 TOTAL: 350.248 (3.7%)

The big games Baseball Spirits, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Yu-Gi-Oh this quarter can potentially add over 1.2 million software; while we also have a few mid-range titles Skyward Sword, Shin-kun, Ace Attorney Chronicles, DBZ: Kakarot, Lost Judgement & Tales of Arise. 

Still software will continue to be down YoY in the Top 30 mainly due to New Horizon being such a juggernaut, if we remove it from last year's total 2021 software is already ahead, but those 5.7 million sales will be near impossible to overcome this Quarter. However in Q3 we do have a one multi-million selling title, and one million selling title - which should ensure that Software does end up YoY. 

From a PlayStation perspective, we might see 3 games that end up in the Top 30 at the end of the Quarter - Village, Nier Replicant & Tales of Arise; Lost Judgement launches at the very last week of the Quarter and it's launch is likely not going to allow it's PS4 SKU to chart. Also no guarantees that Tales of Arise actually makes it since it could be that the PS4 SKU only manages 100K in September and 50K on the PS5, which I don't think will be enough.

In terms of the Top 5, Monster Hunter Rise's legs aren't as strong as I thought, I think we need to see an update for Obon to reignite demand in the title in order to surpass 2.5 million physical by the end the Quarter. While Momotaro will likely end up pretty close to 1.5 million, Bowser's Fury probably close to 1 million, Ring Fit around 800K, MK8D or Yu-Gi-Oh are for me the most likely games to come into the 5th Spot, Yu-Gi-Oh's demo reception should give us a better idea of what to expect but it could definitely be a potential million seller on the Switch if WoM is good. So around 6.4 million across those game.

Within the Top 10 it doesn't seem that there would be a game below 400K, so an additional 2 million across those at minimum. Most likely games to be competing are New Horizon, Smash, Minecraft, Monster Hunter Stories 2 & Baseball Spirits 

While on average the remaining 20 games will end up around 200K, so an additional 4 million. 

So at minimum by the end of Q3 we would surpass 12 million sales, 3 million shy of last year - I'm expecting the biggest boosts at Obon for Momotaro, Ring Fit, Rise