The exact same point can be made with Gen 8 which was fucked up by MS which Sony took good advantage of their missteps.

Series S/X isn't competing with the PS5 head on like traditional rivals anymore, as its not the only primary selling point for Xbox in Gen 9. Its not about selling hardware but selling subscriptions. Xbox hardware it just an alternative and an option to get into Live/GP. This isn't Nintendo vs Sega anymore, those days are over, as much as many still want to believe its the same thing, its not.

We already got that... Series X is still fragile because of the reveal of X1 thus only next gen Xbox will catch up.

If GamePass wasn't available on Windows, you might be right. But it's highly unlikely Xbox will catch up to PlayStation outside of the USA or North America.

But there will be millions of GamePass subscribers now and in the future who don't purchase an Xbox.

Xbox's best market, the United States, still puts it in heavy competition with PlayStation and Nintendo. Xbox is pretty much a nonfactor in Japan, and I don't think that will ever change.

Honestly, Xbox has only a few options if they have any hope of catching up to the PS5 (let alone surpassing it).
-Some true exclusives, either timed or permanent. While a lot of PlayStation titles will be on PS4 or Windows, they have an edge in this department. There's even a third-party game, Final Fantasy XVI, which is only confirmed for PS5. Now I can all but guarantee it will make its way to Windows and possibly Xbox Series S/X. But that will take months or years. Every Xbox Series game right now is available on Windows or something else.
-Massive price cuts, though this would lead to more hardware revenue losses. If Microsoft got the Series S down to $200 and the Series X down to $400, this could undercut Sony big-time. But it would have to involve Sony not dropping their prices as well.
-Bad PR from Sony. They already have some bad PR moves in recent times. But if it got a lot worse, Microsoft could use this to their advantage. Xbox One's bad PR certainly hurt its chances against the PS4. Though In North America, it wasn't as much behind PS4 as you would think.

Is that the exact same point? When MS fucks up Sony wins. When Sony fucks up, Sony still wins even with MS having 1 year head start.

I don't understand the deflection. This is about a prediction of console sales. Either that is true or false.
But if you only care about subscriptions... Sony has their own subscription in PS+ and it sells more than 2x as much as GP.
And their GP numbers are including PC subscriptions where Sony isn't even competing now.
GP isn't finding massive more success than PS+, even as percentage of Xbox/Playstation install base, let alone shifting user base share.

Don't forget Bill Gates divorce... ;-P

I sort of agree with you but this will happen only IF Microsoft buys a major Japanese game studio. So if MS can pull off buying SquareEnix then yes, it will be as strong as PS or might even surpass it.

That would essentially be a death sentence to whatever Japanese studio they bought. Xbox is never going to happen in Japan, no matter what Microsoft does. The US fanbase for those games is unlikely to follow them to Xbox. Even in the US, Japanese games sell far less on Xbox than they do on PlayStation or even Nintendo. After the first couple of flops you'd see a mass exodus of talent followed by Microsoft shuttering the company or selling its remnants to another publisher. 

I agree. Xbox will dominate this gen.

Fuck ups are fuck ups regardless. XB1's fuck up helped boost PS4 sales, PS3s fuck ups helped boost 360 sales. Now if you do some research this is what you will find. PS went from PS2's 150m consoles sold to the PS3's 85m consoles sold due to these stuff ups. OG Xbox went from 30m consoles sold to the 360's 85m sold. That's a minus -65m units sold for the PS brand to a plus 55m console boost to Xbox. Gen 8, we currently have the PS4 gaining 35m more units than last gen while Xbox lost 35m consoles this gen. Do you see the pattarn yet? Understand how this works now? Majority of the same audience continues to shuffle around brands depending on its value and reception.

FYI: PS3 is the 2nd worst profitable console in history, the 360 not only made heaps more money and lose less money last gen, it also sold a lot more software. The definition of "Winning" in these comparison is quite funny. I consider a winner the one that actually makes more profit if we are looking at it as a business sense. Console sales is well.. nonsense.

I have read comments on people saying MS brought Bethesda and it has made no difference in sales.. umm Bethesda hasn't even released a game yet. So the premature assumptions is also quite concerning. 

Also GamePass isn't a Xbox console exclusive, you can access it on PC which means its going to help move customers from Xbox rather than gain customers for their hardware. The Series S/X isnt meant to outsell the PS5, it has its own sales targets which currently right now, the Series X is sold out. This is why comparing head to head sales is really only to stroke peoples fantasy's online. The two companies have very different end goals, the industry has changed and its time people accept it and move past the console wars.

You gotcha the root cause, Series won`t outsell PS5 because of the divorce, that will suck up all the resources MS was going to use to buy the win this gen (same that was gonna be used to buy gen 6, 7 and 8). Although I always thought that infinite divided by 2 was still infinite.