If Enix bothered to create two completely different games for 3DS and PS4 I will not be surprised if they do the same for Switch and PS5. Standard Switch can handle DQ 11 pretty well, nowadays engines make easier to scale down some games. I'm sure they will release DQ 12 (at least 2 years away) playable at least on Switch Pro. If Pro will really replace standard Switch 2 years in market will be enough to ship at least another 6 million hardware in Japan, so Enix will sell two versions of the game one playable on Switch Pro and PS4 (15-16 million japanese userbase) and another version targeting PS5 and PCs (3-4 million userbase in Japan)

This of course if they really want Dragon Quest to increase its current popularity in western markets like Capcom did with Monster Hunter World without lose market space in Japan 

Yeah, I didn't go as far as to say it will not be on the Switch but I definitely get a leaning it will be on PS5. With a cross platform release they have a lot of options including timed exclusivity to Playstation (sonys a big fan of that recently) as well as doing 2 versions, 2D-HD and AAA. Each could be temporarily exclusive to Switch and PS5 respectively than rebundled as a multiplat re-release a year so later (giving them time to port the AAA version to Switch). Alternatively, they build the game with Switch hardware in mind, unlike DQXI. This depends on UE5 tools being fitting for Switch development atm and maybe thats what caused the delay to DQ11 switch (late UE4 support). I can just see it going in any manner of directions. 

Slightly off topic but does anyone know the platform breakdown for DQ11's 6.5m sales? Obviously its skewed towards PS4 because of the initial exclusivity but im still curious 

Dragon Quest 11 wasn't exclusive to PS4. In 2017 it came out in Japan on PS4 and 3DS. In 2018 the West got it on PS4 and PC. 2019 got the S version on Switch, then in 2020 went to PC, PS4, and Xbox One. 

Japan takes up the majority of the sales for DQ. I believe 5 million is from Japan while the West only takes up the remaining 1.5 million. 3DS version sold best in Japan if you're wondering.

I doubt Sony would go for DQ exclusivity since that is a heavily Japanese focused franchise. As I stated above 5/6.5 million of the sales came from Japan. Also, Nintendo has shown to have a lot of interest in DQ. Nintendo has published nearly all DQ games in the West on their platforms since the DS DQ remakes. 

DQ sales in Japan are closer to 4 million than 5

Standard Edition sold 1.43 million for PS4

3DS version sold about 1.83 million (VGC data from 2017)

Switch Definitive edition is coming close to 0.6 million 

Definitive edition moved a mere 50k copies for PS4 so I'm guessing Xbox and PC numbers in Japan were negible

This sums about ~3.96 million in Japan, with slightly over 4 million being a given as 3DS numbers are pretty outdated 

All numbers were physical, but Square stated back in 2017 the majority of numbers in Japan were physical to take it with a grain of salt 

Have they announced which platforms DQ3 will be on?  I didn't think they'd officially announced the platforms yet.

DQ12 will either be Switch exclusive or it will be Switch/Playstation multiplat.  There is a 0.0% chance that DQ12 will be a PS5 exclusive.  Sony has never given a damn about Dragon Quest, while Nintendo has been trying to sell it outside of Japan since Dragon Quest 1 (and they never seem to give up hope that it will happen one day).  Sony will be fortunate if DQ12 ends up on PS4/PS5 even as a multiplat release.  They definitely won't make some special deal with SquareEnix for exclusivity.  They'll pay for another Final Fantasy game before they'd ever consider paying for Dragon Quest.

They don't need to pay for anything. The announcement of DQ gave me vibes they are aiming to catch international audiences. Success of DQ XI rose western audience awareness towards this IP, I'm sure they will use fancy graphics and a more open world design as a way to turn DQ into mainstream audiences after all, we are not talking about a game that has only japanese appeal. The single idea of DQ being Switch exclusive makes no sense to me, if they bothered to release a Xbox version almost nobody bought why would they ditch a platform that provided ~35% of DQ XI sales even in Japan arguably the Nintendoland?

That would most likely kill the franchise.

With roughly 20% digital it would be at around 5mil.

They don't need Playstation to be successful WW. The Xbox release might have been just to see how well it'll sell, it's no guarantee for anything. Since iirc DQ Builders 2 also went to Xbox I can imagine a late port, but not much more.

Personally I think it'll be Switch/PS5 multiplat, but I don't see a PS5 version as guaranteed in part because of the terrible software sales in Japan. Even if DQ XII is going to be the most successful DQ game in the west, most sales will still come from Japan regardless, unless a miracle happens.

I disagree, they absolutely needs Playstation (and PC) to truly reach mainstream audiences outside Japan. Being released on Switch only I can see DQ XII struggling to even reach DQ XI sales even if it gets several re-releases just like XI

Dragon Quest isn't a flasgship franchise outside its home market and overall JRPGs have good synergy with Playstation and other Sony systems, but more important DQ needs as much newcomers it can get. This is no Monster Hunter Rise, at least not yet, Rise sales in west was a byproduct of "World" sales and half of World sales outside Japan comes from PCs. If World was a PS4 exclusive it would have sold less than 9 million, great sales but more than 7 million behind what it sold, no wonder why even Monster Hunter Rise will be released on PCs

Edit: Another thing to consider is advertising. The worst thing to advertise in JRPGs is the turn based combat, what is easy to advertise is fancy graphics and a beautiful world full of things to explore. PS5 will provide those fancy graphics and world with very big scope, Switch will not