That's the thing though, it's all well and good for Gamepass to have a lot of subscribers across all platforms, but in this context we're talking about how it will affect comparative sales of Xbox and Playstation, and so far it's just no proving itself to be a killer app.

That was what I was meaning with I said it'll have an impact for sure. For when really big games hit the service day 1 I expect it to boost Xbox Series X/S sales though how much it will exactly I'm not sure. If GTA VI was on game pass day 1 I think everyone should be able to agree that would cause a big sales boost but that shouldn't happen so it's to be seen how big the boost will be for big but not GTA level big games.

I'm still not convinced. I guess time will tell but so far this gen is looking like it'll play out much like the last with a roughly 2:1 lead in hardware sales for Playstation. GP has yet to demonstrate to me it will considerably change Xbox's market share.

I don't think it'll considerably change things unless it somehow does get stuff like GTA and COD day 1, to me it's something that should cause a few million or so gamers to buy an Xbox this time so a decent boost but nothing that major. Quality first party titles will be far more important. 

Yeah exclusives will be more important I reckon and Xbox has a looong way to go if they wanna catch up to Sony in terms of the hardware-moving power of their first party catalogue. They still have yet to prove they can get Halo back on track for a start.

They should overall do better first party wise this time but unfortunately they're not starting well. Also it's kinda funny all this Xbox discussion has happened in the PS5 sales prediction thread instead of the Xbox Series X/S one lol.

Yeah, I think it is not outlandish to assume that PS5 sales and Xbox Series sales are linked. PS3 and Xbox 360 sold together 173M, while PS4 and Xbox One are currently at 165M and probably will not grow much anymore and probably end up similar. So it is quite possible that PS5 and Xbox Series also together sell around the same number, which also means that a stronger Xbox will end up leaving PS5 weaker. If you buy into that premise though is another story.

For people stating that PS5 and Xbox Series launched stronger than their predecessors: so did PS4 and Xbox One.

You sure about that? because talking about the competition in the market is absolutely related to a console's sales numbers. 

78% know it will do better than 100M easily. Seems about right. I have said PS5 will sell the same as PS4 numbers but I think it will be a bit more actually.

Like I said before, I expect the PS5 to sell ~100M, give or take 10M. But when I posted that prediction, I didn't explain the reasoning as to why "only" 100M

Playstation + Xbox have for 3 generations now (PS2 +Xbox; PS3 + 360; PS4 + XBO) sold somewhere around 170M when added together. Considering that the XS is off to a much better start and has much less negative baggage than the XBO had, I do expect the XS to outsell it's predecessor. Consequently, when going by the rule that the total Playstation + Xbox sales only budge very slightly, I expect PS5 numbers to be down compared to the PS4.

However, I don't think that it will be down by much, and while I expect the PS+XB total to go up slightly this gen to maybe 175M-180M, Playstation will still have a clear lead over it's direct competitor in the end, just not quite as overwhelming as it was last gen.