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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS5 Lifetime Sales Predictions

 

How well do you think PS5 will sell lifetime?

Under 50 million 2 1.38%
 
50-75 million 4 2.76%
 
75-100 million 24 16.55%
 
100-125 million 85 58.62%
 
125-150 million 29 20.00%
 
150+ million 1 0.69%
 
Total:145
curl-6 said:
ice said:

Considering both the series X and PS5 are selling out whatever stock they have, not sure how you're coming to this conclusion, especially after 6 months. I mean, even if Gamepass is getting people interested there's more than just buying the series x|s consoles and the subscribers are going up pretty darn fast so idk if it's just a "rave on forums" thing, lots of casuals I know have heard about it.

Playstation will continue being successful but there's a chance Xbox can get their share of the pie too.

GamePass has been out quite a bit longer than the Xbox Series, it sure didn't give Xbox One a second wind. And the Series S isn't sold out, you can get it all over the world; if Gamepass was such a killer app why wouldn't people opt for the cheaper way to access it?

Same reason people are buying the series X over the S? Not everyone wants the cheapest option, subscription services take time to build, GP is just now gaining on word of mouth and good press, I never implied it was a killer app, but the growth is there and it has potential to be one.

The marketshare potential of the xbox series, and the "killer app" status of Gamepass is way too early to call. And the cheapest option with be Mobile and PC (if you already have one) which wouldn't impact console sales anyways if people want to go that route.



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ice said:
curl-6 said:

GamePass has been out quite a bit longer than the Xbox Series, it sure didn't give Xbox One a second wind. And the Series S isn't sold out, you can get it all over the world; if Gamepass was such a killer app why wouldn't people opt for the cheaper way to access it?

Same reason people are buying the series X over the S? Not everyone wants the cheapest option, subscription services take time to build, GP is just now gaining on word of mouth and good press, I never implied it was a killer app, but the growth is there and it has potential to be one.

The marketshare potential of the xbox series, and the "killer app" status of Gamepass is way too early to call. And the cheapest option with be Mobile and PC (if you already have one) which wouldn't impact console sales anyways if people want to go that route.

That's the thing though, I'm only talking about its ability to move Xbox consoles, which at this point, 4 years after its launch, has yet to be demonstrated in any way.



curl-6 said:
ice said:

Same reason people are buying the series X over the S? Not everyone wants the cheapest option, subscription services take time to build, GP is just now gaining on word of mouth and good press, I never implied it was a killer app, but the growth is there and it has potential to be one.

The marketshare potential of the xbox series, and the "killer app" status of Gamepass is way too early to call. And the cheapest option with be Mobile and PC (if you already have one) which wouldn't impact console sales anyways if people want to go that route.

That's the thing though, I'm only talking about its ability to move Xbox consoles, which at this point, 4 years after its launch, has yet to be demonstrated in any way.

Which again, Subscription services take time to build momentum and the Series X (the console in demand) is still sold out. How can we say if it's currently selling systems either way? We just have to see later in the gen once the demand is met.

I can say for myself, Gamepass wasn't worth it the first year or so, but the offerings they've been getting since last year convinced me to jump on.



ice said:
curl-6 said:

That's the thing though, I'm only talking about its ability to move Xbox consoles, which at this point, 4 years after its launch, has yet to be demonstrated in any way.

Which again, Subscription services take time to build momentum and the Series X (the console in demand) is still sold out. How can we say if it's currently selling systems either way? We just have to see later in the gen once the demand is met.

I can say for myself, Gamepass wasn't worth it the first year or so, but the offerings they've been getting since last year convinced me to jump on.

If it was really such a system seller I reckon we'd have seen Xbone get a late life bump and the Series S being sold out as well. Guess for now we will just have to agree to disagree and see where things go.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 19 May 2021

curl-6 said:
ice said:

Which again, Subscription services take time to build momentum and the Series X (the console in demand) is still sold out. How can we say if it's currently selling systems either way? We just have to see later in the gen once the demand is met.

I can say for myself, Gamepass wasn't worth it the first year or so, but the offerings they've been getting since last year convinced me to jump on.

If it was really such a system seller I reckon we'd have see Xbone get a late life bump and the Series S being sold out as well. Guess for now we will just have to agree to disagree and see where things go.

I will reinstate that sub services take a while to build up, Gamepass on Xbox One didn't have the day 1 3rd party releases and MS's first party didn't have the studios to support such a service, things are vastly different now. As for the series S, Xbox Series X was always selling more/in demand even before it became readily available. I'm not claiming it is or isn't selling xboxes, I'm making the stance that we simply do not know either way but regardless I do agree that time will eventually give us the answer.  



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ice said:
curl-6 said:

If it was really such a system seller I reckon we'd have see Xbone get a late life bump and the Series S being sold out as well. Guess for now we will just have to agree to disagree and see where things go.

I will reinstate that sub services take a while to build up, Gamepass on Xbox One didn't have the day 1 3rd party releases and MS's first party didn't have the studios to support such a service, things are vastly different now. As for the series S, Xbox Series X was always selling more/in demand even before it became readily available. I'm not claiming it is or isn't selling xboxes, I'm making the stance that we simply do not know either way but regardless I do agree that time will eventually give us the answer.  

4 years is plenty of time for a service to establish itself. I remain certain that GP would've eased Xbone's decline and have the Series S sold out if was really the killer app it's claimed to be.

I'm also supremely confident that come 2023 Xbox Series will still be getting easily and decisively outsold by PS5.



curl-6 said:
ice said:

I will reinstate that sub services take a while to build up, Gamepass on Xbox One didn't have the day 1 3rd party releases and MS's first party didn't have the studios to support such a service, things are vastly different now. As for the series S, Xbox Series X was always selling more/in demand even before it became readily available. I'm not claiming it is or isn't selling xboxes, I'm making the stance that we simply do not know either way but regardless I do agree that time will eventually give us the answer.  

4 years is plenty of time for a service to establish itself. I remain certain that GP would've eased Xbone's decline and have the Series S sold out if was really the killer app it's claimed to be.

I'm also supremely confident that come 2023 Xbox Series will still be getting easily and decisively outsold by PS5.

lol Well thanks for stating the obvious there, doesn't mean that Xbox series can't outsell the xbox one and regain some market share? 

You said Gamepass hasn't done anything to boost Xbox's sales, we all know Playstation is going to sell better. Unlike Nintendo and MS (to lesser degree) they never had a flop home console. Idk How we are making this judgement call 6 months in is literally my point.

But we are going into circles so...

You believe Gamepass is a nonfactor is sales

I believe we can't tell yet either way

/End



ice said:
curl-6 said:

4 years is plenty of time for a service to establish itself. I remain certain that GP would've eased Xbone's decline and have the Series S sold out if was really the killer app it's claimed to be.

I'm also supremely confident that come 2023 Xbox Series will still be getting easily and decisively outsold by PS5.

lol Well thanks for stating the obvious there, doesn't mean that Xbox series can't outsell the xbox one and regain some market share? 

You said Gamepass hasn't done anything to boost Xbox's sales, we all know Playstation is going to sell better. Unlike Nintendo and MS (to lesser degree) they never had a flop home console. Idk How we are making this judgement call 6 months in is literally my point.

But we are going into circles so...

You believe Gamepass is a nonfactor is sales

I believe we can't tell yet either way

/End

Not so much a total non-factor so much as not the megaton killer app it's made out to be on the internet. As as the rest go yeah, we'll simply have to disagree for now.



Runa216 said:

GamePass was released first on June 1st 2017. Almost four years ago, now. And the Sony brand has only increased in reputation since then. There seems to be little to no correlation or causation between them. 

I find it so odd how insistent people are that GamePass is going to change the industry. (PSNow, as well). If it was going to, it would have had a larger impact by now. As it stands, the reality of the situation is that it's good for a niche audience but the nature of games as an interactive medium means it really won't ever replace owning games. They've have plenty of time to prove its usefulness, and while it certainly has its appeals and certainly has its audience, it's not as big a mover and a shaker as people insist. 

Honestly, the only correlation/causal links I can find that differentiates Nintendo/Sony from Microsoft are exclusives and unique gameplay opportunities or features. I just...come on guys, go with the data. 

Ok boomer

We talk in 10 years if we still here

PM sent

Last edited by CGI-Quality - on 18 May 2021

curl-6 said:
ice said:

Considering both the series X and PS5 are selling out whatever stock they have, not sure how you're coming to this conclusion, especially after 6 months. I mean, even if Gamepass is getting people interested there's more than just buying the series x|s consoles and the subscribers are going up pretty darn fast so idk if it's just a "rave on forums" thing, lots of casuals I know have heard about it.

Playstation will continue being successful but there's a chance Xbox can get their share of the pie too.

GamePass has been out quite a bit longer than the Xbox Series, it sure didn't give Xbox One a second wind. And the Series S isn't sold out, you can get it all over the world; if Gamepass was such a killer app why wouldn't people opt for the cheaper way to access it?

Because GP isn't a killer app. GP is a new revenue model

The purpose of GP existence is not to help Xbox brand, but to change the way MS revenue comes from

Guess I triggered Sony fans in this thread with my 10% decrease take, if I also predict an even bigger decrease on Xbox sales this commotion will stop?

People aren't desperate to use GP, GP is something to change gaming habits and gaming payment model. Slowly people will start to get into

It's not like 100% of console market will adopt GP, it's never going to happen but to think 100% of console market will remain static for every generation to come when services are only growing? Hard to believe