Wooooww. Not a single one of those threads have aged well. 

I mean...I think it's clear that a single gimmick or game or concept is NOT enough to float a console. No matter the console. The console needs to be balanced, it needs to show innovation but not go too gimmicky. It needs to offer people what they want while introducing new ideas and concepts. It needs to be familiar but still new and exciting. and it needs to have exclusives. That's why Switch and PS4 sold so damn well (probably the #2 and #3 top selling consoles of all time when it's all said and done, respectively). Both of them are New enough to be exciting with new ideas that make them stick out, while also focusing on the core gaming crowd that buy the most. Both have innovation but also have crowd pleasers. both have exclusives and their own unique take on how to play. (VR and portability). Both are accessible without being too bland. 

PS4 showed that a good balance is super important. It was familiar enough to entice people, but everything about the console was done well. No one thing was stellar or groundbreaking, but they did almost everything right from day one. PS5 seems to be following in the Ps4's footsteps, but taking it a step farther with the new controller features, improved VR, and all the stuff with backwards compatibility that seems to be widespread across the industry now. Plus all the games. Just, so many games. 

I think it was Scott the Woz that I heard this from, but look at the PS1 vs the N64. PS1 came into the market basically outta nowhere and completely dominated the market. It was the first home console of all time to pass 100 million units, but the console really didn't have much of an identity. N64, though only selling about 1/3 what PS1 sold, had a more defined identity. Everyone who had an N64 had Mario 64 and Ocarina of Time and Mario Kart and Goldeneye, etc. You talk to ten different PS1 owners and they could each have entirely unique libraries. the people who play Final Fantasy VII aren't necessarily the same people who play Metal Gear Solid or Gran Turismo or Crash Bandicoot/Spyro. The PS1 targetted a wide audience worldwide and hit just about every note correctly, so when the PS2 came out it became an absolute juggernaut while Gamecube failed. 

PS4 and PS5 seem to be emulating everything PS1 and PS2 did. after a rough section with the PS3 - and Sony completely fucking up the first half of that console generation - the PS4 seemed to start fresh, by giving us a wide variety of different games in many genres, a mix of old franchises and new IPs and new takes on old IPs. The Ps4 had a bit of a slow start but ever since 2015/2016 it's been a steady stream of beloved games, both multiplatform and exclusive. The Ps5 is riding that wave, is backwards compatible, and has all sorts of new ideas and concepts that change how we play games. compare that to the only direct competition, which basically seems to be more of the same (it's just the same as last generation but with faster/stronger hardware, and few exclusives/new IPs), it's not hard not to see this as repeating history. 

Based on the trajectories of the past 10 years or so, I see PS5 selling more than PS4 if only by a small margin, while its competition will hover around the same or even end up lower unless a drastic change happens. This has nothing to do with brand loyalty, it's pattern recognition. 

Like I've said before, I don't even like half of Sony's exclusives, but that doesn't mean they don't sell or aren't well liked. I probably like The Last of Us less than anyone I know, but it still sold like 17 million units between its two releases (that's the first game on PS3 and the PS4 remaster, not including part 2) and got an astounding 95 metacritic. It's not for me, that doesn't mean it's not good. 

Point is, if you look at history and current trajectories, it's easy to assume Ps5 will sell as much if not more than PS4, unless something drastic happens. Unless the competition REALLY steps up or they REALLY mess up, that's the path we're on. 

DS is a handheld, not a console.

Exactly. But to add to the point of the ps4 being a fresh start. It sure did but that fresh start was earned during the ps3. That console ended really strong to build hype. The games at the end where definetly games that just made gamers want more while the competition left them wanting. 

That's the reason I don't believe the xbix series is a fresh start for MS. As much as fans like to believe its doing everything right, it has yet to do a god danm thing to proove so. They finished the x1 gen in the worst possible state I could ever inmagine. Complete lack of big games since 2019. And to boot the new console lauched with zero big games and the first wont be here untill this holiday and its another entry of a tired franchise. 

Like you said this pattern is easy to follow. Xbox is doing exact same thing. Promissing a lot while delivering on nothing. And fans just eat it up and forget the past. 

Ya might wanna be careful, I get warned/moderated every time I mention this stuff. I had arguments all last year about how Xbox keeps making promises but never delivering on them, and how all the studio acquisitions mean nothing until we actually see the fruits of the labours pay off. I have no doubt that of the three major console manufacturers, Microsoft has by far the most potential for success and growth but is doing the least to actually impress. No exclusives, few console exclusives, and the ones they DO put out are either shit at launch or disappointing compared to their 360 prime. Clinging to the same IPs with few new ones, and the ones that are new rarely break out or impress by any means. 

Sony over here is kicking out new IP like Returnal and Ghost of Tsushima just within the last year, both of which were well-reviewed and well-liked. They put out sequels to old games that people liked, rebooted two franchises (A la Spider-Man and God of War) which were the best selling and best reviewed of their franchises, and are generally actually doing things we care about by balancing genres and focusing on worldwide markets instead of just Japan or America. They actually tried a bunch of cool new stuff with their controller, they updated their PS5 UI to look like its own thing. 

Nintendo doesn't branch out all too much (They don't often explore new IP), and their hardware is pretty simple, but what they lack in strength or new IP they make up for in innovation both in gameplay mechanics and in hardware options as well as portability. PS4/5 may be my go-to for a lot of games, but I play most smaller indie games on Switch and I probably put more time into Pokemon and Breath of the Wild than anything on PS ever. 

The point is, Nintendo and Sony both have identity and/or something to draw people to their respective brands. They have things that set their consoles aside and makes them stand out; that's why PS4, PS5, and Switch are all doing so remarkably well. They hit their target demographics and they do so with skill and consistency. Well, maybe not consistency for Nintendo as much as I like them. But Xbox...only really caters to western audiences with very few exceptions, Gamepass and all their exclusives are on PC, the Series X is basically just a beefier Xbox One. That's fine for people who want that but I just don't see the series X outsellign the One unless they actually switch things up and REALLY give us new games, new IP, and better sequels than we've been getting. 

That's also why I think PS5 will sell MORE than PS4. if things don't change, the competition will not be as prevalent. There needs to be a huge shift if Xbox wants to take a larger market share and until I see some of these new games and new exclusives, I just don't see it happening. There will always be a place for Xbox in the market...but basically only in America since that's really all they cater to.

And yes, talking about the competition IS relevant to the topic at hand, before anyone goes reporting me (which they do any time I criticize Microsoft and Xbox)

Nintendo doesn't branch out all too much (They don't often explore new IP), and their hardware is pretty simple, but what they lack in strength or new IP they make up for in innovation both in gameplay mechanics and in hardware options as well as portability. PS4/5 may be my go-to for a lot of games, but I play most smaller indie games on Switch and I probably put more time into Pokemon and Breath of the Wild than anything on PS ever. 

Yeah regardless of what so many say, I really don't see PS5's competition as much stronger than PS4's so far.
Xbox Series is selling a little better than Xbone but not by much, and has yet to prove it will have staying power or fix many of Xbone's problems.
Switch doesn't directly compete, as its current gargantuan sales aren't stopping PS5 selling all it can ship, kinda like DS didn't stop PS3/360/Wii selling.

Nintendo actually has been releasing a good number of new franchises, even when they are spin offs of older IPs they have a totally different gameplay so they can be count for me to balance. For instance, Luigi's Mansion is part of Mario IP/Universe, but it's a totally different franchise of games. Point is Nintendo already has so many spin offs they are suffering to manage all them, we only got a Pokemon Snap sequel over 20 years after the original game, crazy you think about it 

That's said they still releasing some new IPs this gen: Astral Chain, Arms, Ring Fit, Labo and Clubhouse Games. They also announced Game Bulding Garage. I think the perception of lacking in new IPs is mostly because:

1) older IPs overshadows new IPs completely on Switch, during Wii U we at least got Splatoon that turned into a flagship AAA Blockbuster title this gen. Meanwhile most of Switch new IPs has been proven fairly forgettable. Ring Fit is becoming a new big IP though 

2) some of their new IPs are for a more casual crowd or fall into gaming design tied to peripherals (Clubhouse Games, Labo) that aren't greatly enjoyed by all kinds of gamers, I personally only like Ring Fit Adventure among all those ""casual"" Nintendo games

He's speaking strictly about home consoles. Problem solved. ;P