Xbox Series still not looking too hot. As well as getting more supply of the X online, they need to start putting out some first party software soon.

After the mediocre performance of the Xbone they don't seem to be trying as hard as they could to turn things around.

Sony's Shipped number was at 115.9 as of march 31st this is 2 weeks later but sold to consumers not just retailers. 

Why? How do you know only 200k PS4s are on shelves? 

I'm way more happy about Nintendo's success than I have any right to be. It just, makes me smile, can't help it. I love the content.

That's just wishful thinking though, not a sound argument

So like Ben Johnson?

200k is a small amount for a system still selling available worldwide, I know it's at the end of its life but it's not dead yet.

"shipped" units will include those on store shelves, but also in storage for the retailers, and in transit to the retailers (essentially as soon as it leaves Sony's legal hands)... depending on the reporting method this may even extend up to international shipping which can be 2-4 weeks just for the transit without customs  handling times (though I believe Sony started reporting "sales" back in 2006/7, which most likely means the units leave Sonys hands from subsidiaries in US/Europe etc, but without working for them I can't be sure)

For reference, the 3DS shipment LTD in March 2020 was 75,770k, whereas VGC had the sales at approx. 125k below that.... at the time the 3DS was only selling 1/4 of what the PS4 is now. (<15k per week).
I wouldnt expect the stock:weekly sales ratio of PS4 to match that of 3DS (handhelds are easier to stock due to smaller form, this doesn't mean half-the-size = double-stock but it will make a difference) but having a 6-10 week discrepancy doesn't seem unreasonable to me.

VGC has the PS4 selling more than it shipped since for all 4 quarters of last calendar year, (shipped 6.2m for the year, sold 8.6m, which means the stock level in Jan 2020 was 2-3mil, or about 15 weeks worth) everything was in high demand from March-Dec, PS4 stock may indeed have gone very low. (Sony was super focused on gettting PS5 out for the holidays so may have neglected PS4) but until it gets discontinued there have to be some quarters where it ships more that sold.

600k is not an unreasonable discrepancy, and 200k is a very low amount of stock for a system still selling 40-50k. It seems to be widely available now as I don't hear people saying PS4 is out of stock much like the PS5 is.

Switch in NA alone = nearly double Xbox Series worldwide, and XD sales in Europe only 5k more than PS4.

PS5 + XS more than 1/5th of the way to the threshold of my bet, with 56 months to go.

Made that data into a bar graph. I added the PS2's shipment data between Janurary 1st-March 31st of 2005 to be able to include every console in history. Unfortunately there's no sell-through data of the PS2'S first quarter anywhere on the internet so I decided to use shipments even though it is subject to be completely wrong when it comes to actual sell-through between that time period. Plus I did a little estimation for the PS2's shipment data since it doesn't include the time period between March 31st and April 17th. But other than that all the sell-through data is spot on.