Oh, I see.  You think the Switch is like the Wii.  You think it is attracting a new crowd of people or maybe bringing back the old Wii crowd.  That is why you are defining "arcade" in terms of accessibility.  

The problem with this reasoning is that the Wii was a whole lot more accessible than the Switch is.  The Switch has no Wii Sports type of game.  If you are thinking "arcade" means accessible, then the Switch needs a mega seller that is as easy to learn as Wii Sports.  It doesn't have this.  You shouldn't put the Wii and the Switch in the same vertical column on your table, because their library of games is pretty different.

Switch is not successful because of extreme accessibility.  Switch is successful, because it is a handheld system.  Nintendo has never been defeated in the handheld space.  They are leveraging their extreme success in the handheld market and bringing it into the home market as well.  That is why the Switch is successful.  It is not about extreme accessibility.

The "arcade gameplay" on the Switch is actually pretty similar to the "arcade gameplay" on the N64 and Gamecube.  Switch's big arcade-like games are Mario Kart, Smash Bros and Mario Party.  You could find these same types of games on the N64 and Gamecube.  You could also find these types of games on the 3DS.  They sell better on the 3DS.  Now they are selling well on the Switch.  That's because the Switch is bringing in all of the handheld gamers and then bringing in some home console gamers too.  It's not bringing in the Wii crowd in big numbers.  It's merging the home and handheld markets.

You misunderstand my argument, so let me put it simply for you.

1) The words "accessible" and "arcade" do not mean the same thing.  The game Defender was not considered accessible, but it was most definitely arcade.  Likewise, "The Sims" was an extremely accessible game, but it was most definitely a PC game.  If your argument is really about accessibility, then you should call it that instead of "arcade".

2) Even if you think these two words do mean the same thing, the Switch is not nearly as accessible as the Wii was.  The main thing Nintendo found before they developed the Wii is that people hated the classic controller (i.e. 2 analogue sticks, 8+ button, etc... controller).  Most Switch games use this as the default controls.  The Switch is not selling because of simple controls.  However, the Wii had Wii Bowling and Wii Tennis.  All you do is wave a TV remote and the game works.  The magic is not in the "sports" part.  The magic is in the simplicity.  People who would not play any other video game would still play Wii Sports.

There is no mega seller on the Switch that is as simple as Wii Sports.  The Switch is selling to a different crowd, and that crowd doesn't really care about accessibility.  I would be shocked if I walked into a retirement center and they were all playing Animal Crossing.  I wouldn't be shocked if they were still playing Wii Sports, because no other game has come along to get them to buy a Nintendo system.  Animal Crossing is selling to a totally different crowd.  It's not pulling in the Wii gamers.

I wouldn't consider the Wii U PC Priority, more like a balance. While Nintendo was trying to get multiplat and 3rd party support to get the PC games. The Wii U is far closer to having an arcade evolution type experience then consoles like the PS3/360 and Xbox since the Wii U offered a gamepad to create new simple arcade type experience with its touch functionality and other features, as Nintendo prioritized simple arcade fun over PC games and a game like Nintendo Land shows that. The PS3/360 and Xbox weren't really aiming to be arcade evolution (Outside the Kinect & PS Move, but those are add-on and the system originally wasn't made with those add-ons in mind). If the Wii U was PC Priority, the Wii U would've been far more powerful to be able to gain more 3rd Party Support to get the PC games primarily on Xbox One and PS4.

Great thread. Interesting how you separate the 2nd, 3rd and 4th generations different than the typical listings but I would definitely include Intellivision with Gen 2 not Gen 3. It actually released in 1979 (two years after the 2600, three years before your other Gen 3 consoles) and its tech, while better than the 2600, was noticeably eclipsed by the 5200 and Colecovision.

Mario Kart (wheel), RFA (weight loss) and Just Dance (waggle) can't sell the numbers they're selling without some of the Wii casuals.

Was 30-100 people sharing a single console in a retirement home really responsible for a large portion of casual Wii sales?

RFA is definitely pulling in people from the Wii.  I'll give you that.  However, that is the only Switch game pulling the new gamers from the Wii.  It also isn't even in the top 10 yet.  Perhaps 7m out of the 80m Switch owners are actually new gamers from the Wii.  That is still less than 10% of the base.  The Wii crowd is not the reason why the Switch is so successful.

Just Dance...do you have sales numbers for this?  I would love to know how much Just Dance is selling on the Switch.

Mario Kart is what Nintendo called a bridge game.  It appeals both to new gamers and also to really experienced gamers.  It can be hard to tell where those sales are coming from.  What I can tell you, for sure, is that Mario Kart was the most popular game on both the Wii U and the 3DS.  It is also currently the most popular game on the Switch.  It was not the most popular game on the Wii.  Wii Sports was by far the most popular game.

It is disingenuous to say the Switch is like the Wii and unlike the Wii U and 3DS.  The top 10 on the Switch looks a whole closer to the top 10 on the Wii U and 3DS than it does the top 10 on the Wii.  Here take a look.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wiiu.html

This idea that the Switch is selling because it pulled in the Wii gamers that the 3DS and Wii U missed is very much like forcing a square peg into a round hole.  These "new" sales the Switch is getting are not coming from the Wii.  The extra sales are coming from the PS4 and XB1 crowd.  The PSP was essentially a portable PS2.  The Switch is essentially a portable PS4, except you can also play it on a TV just fine and it has all of Nintendo's fantastic first party games.  Twilight Princess was a launch title, but it did not make it into the Wii's top 10.  On the other hand BotW seems to just keep selling.  This is not a game for the Wii crowd.  It most definitely is a game for PS4 and XB1 gamers.

I think you are too narrowly defining the Wii crowd.

Yes Wii Sports was the biggest seller, but NSMB, Mario Kart, Smash and others also sold gangbusters. People who bought those titles were very much in the Wii crowd.

And, the Wii launched in 2006. So we have to think about where the Wii crowd has gone.

The 6 year old kid who picked up a Wii and Mario Kart in 2009 is now headed to college looking for a multiplayer machine. The 18 year old kid who bought Wii Sports at launch to play drinking games college (I knew a few) is now in their early 30's with kids who are getting to gaming age. The 12 year old kid who got a Wii in 2008 is now in their mid 20s, and old enough to feel nostalgic.

The Wii crowd was more than just Wii Sports. And, they are now 10-15 years older than they were when they first got the Wii. So, you don't necessarily have to appeal to them in the exact same way. 

Also, there is a huge overlap between the Wii and DS market, to the point where it would be hard to say which audience is making the Wii a success. 

All that being said, I think putting the Switch in the "arcade evolution" category or claiming its success is based on accessibility or however you like to term it is mistaken.

I think the main reason for Switch's success is its versatility both in terms of form and gameplay. If you want a handheld to play on the train, you got it. If you want something to play while you're sitting on the couch with your significant other and they're watching a show that you really don't care for, you got it. If you want a multiplayer machine to play drinking games with, you got it. 

In terms of games if you want a casual pick up and play game, you got those (1-2 Switch, Animal Crossing, Clubhouse Games, Super Mario Party, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, NSMB/3D World). You want competitive multiplayer you got that (Smash, Splatoon, ARMS, Pokken). You want motion controlled games, they're there (Super Mario Party, 1-2 Switch, Mario Tennis, Ring Fit, ARMS). You want more traditional but still kid/casual friendly games, yup (Pokemon Let's Go/Sword Shield, Luigi's Mansion, Marios, Kirby). You want more "hardcore" titles, those are there too (Xenoblade 2, Monster Hunter, BOTW, Bravely Default 2, Dead Cells, Hades, Astral Chain, Witcher, Doom). Primarily driven by Nintendo's offerings, but major third parties and indies help pick up the slack.

The Switch's success kind of had me stumped for a while, because it doesn't seem amazing in any one area. Not as good as a pure casual machine as the DS or Wii, not as good for "hardcore" gamers as the PS4/XBone, not as good as a handheld as the 3DS, etc. But whatever your gaming habits are (on the go, on TV, off TV) and whatever kind of games you like, it offers a good enough experience.

To that end, pointing to the Switch's success as coming from the Wii crowd or the handheld audience or whatever is too narrow. It's drawing from pretty much all across the spectrum. Which is pretty much what Nintendo's always wanted to do, this is just their (potentially) most successful attempt yet.

I would agree. Ring Fit is seeing a nice boost especially because people are in lock down globally and many can't or won't go to a gym to all in home fitness equipment is seeing a big boost (try buying a home gym, the prices are fucked). 

But the Switch was already a huge hit before that released and if you removed that game it would still be selling the same IMO. 

The Switch's top 10 software sales is more like the Wii U or a more conventional Nintendo platform just with bigger numbers for the usual Nintendo franchise staples. 

Mario Kart is what Nintendo called a bridge game.  It appeals both to new gamers and also to really experienced gamers.  It can be hard to tell where those sales are coming from.  What I can tell you, for sure, is that Mario Kart was the most popular game on both the Wii U and the 3DS.  It is also currently the most popular game on the Switch.  It was not the most popular game on the Wii.  Wii Sports was by far the most popular game.

Uhhhhhhh... so? We'll accept for argument's sake that Wii Sports was the most popular game on the Wii (bundles for both games make it a bit hard to say definitively). Mario Kart 8 still has sold more than 7 million than Mario Kart 7/8Wii U combined. If we assume there is significant overlap between the Wii U and 3DS audience, it seems safe (and rather conservative) to say that there will be 15-20 million more unique Mario Kart 8 owners than there were during the Wii and 3DS era.

Where did those sales come from? Not all from one place obviously, but it seems like the most likely source of additional source would be people that we know liked Mario Kart in the past. Fans of the Wii and DS game seem like a pretty logical suggestion. 

It is disingenuous to say the Switch is like the Wii and unlike the Wii U and 3DS.  The top 10 on the Switch looks a whole closer to the top 10 on the Wii U and 3DS than it does the top 10 on the Wii.  Here take a look.
https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/wiiu.html

This idea that the Switch is selling because it pulled in the Wii gamers that the 3DS and Wii U missed is very much like forcing a square peg into a round hole.  These "new" sales the Switch is getting are not coming from the Wii.  The extra sales are coming from the PS4 and XB1 crowd.  The PSP was essentially a portable PS2.  The Switch is essentially a portable PS4, except you can also play it on a TV just fine and it has all of Nintendo's fantastic first party games.

I don't think Pyro said that... but anyways, how can you compare the Switch top 10 to the Wii to argue that Switch is not getting sales from the Wii, then go on to argue that the extra sales are coming from the PS4 and XB1 crowd.

First off, comparing top ten is sort of an arbitrary cutoff. More importantly though, I don't think anyone is arguing that a large share of the Switch's sales are coming from 3DS owners. They are the most obvious source, so the top 10 is going to look pretty similar. But, the Switch is outpacing the 3DS by about 30 million, so even if we assume 100% of 3DS owners stayed with Nintendo (unlikely) then we still have a big chunk to account for.

You say, that the sales game from PS4 and XBox 1? Well, if you think that top 10 sales are a useful metric, let's look at those.

https://www.vgchartz.com/games/games.php?name=+&keyword=&console=PS4&region=All&developer=&publisher=&goty_year=&genre=&boxart=Both&banner=Both&ownership=Both&showmultiplat=No&results=50&order=Sales&showtotalsales=0&showtotalsales=1&showpublisher=0&showpublisher=1&showvgchartzscore=0&showvgchartzscore=1&shownasales=0&showdeveloper=0&showcriticscore=0&showcriticscore=1&showpalsales=0&showreleasedate=0&showreleasedate=1&showuserscore=0&showuserscore=1&showjapansales=0&showlastupdate=0&showlastupdate=1&showothersales=0&showshipped=0

Our numbers aren't perfect, but they should be good enough for our general purpose. 

The top games are Spider-man, GTAV, Uncharted IV, two Call of Duties, two Fifas, Red Dead Redemption, and the Last of Us. 

None of these games, nor anything like them, are in the top 10 on the Switch. Putting aside BOTW for a moment, we'll get to it, there is nothing in the top 10 that is remotely like the games that are thriving on Switch. Gritty shooters, sports sims, and open world games, aren't making the Switch a success. If you're judging by top 10 games, you'd have to conclude that the Wii audience is a FAR more likely source of new owners than the PS4. 

Twilight Princess was a launch title, but it did not make it into the Wii's top 10.  On the other hand BotW seems to just keep selling.  This is not a game for the Wii crowd.  It most definitely is a game for PS4 and XB1 gamers.

Now we can get to BOTW. I'll grant for argument's sake that Breath of the Wild is "a game for PS4 gamers". Even with that, this is extreme cherry picking.

Sure BOTW is still selling well. But... what else is selling?

Smash Ultimate has more than doubled the 3DS version, and will Ultimately (see what I did there) double the Wii U and 3DS combined.

NSMB U on Switch has already outsold the Wii U version which was a launch title. Very likely will outsell NSMB2.

Mario Odyssey will double (at least) 3D Land sales.

Super Mario Party is approaching 15 million. Sold about 3 million on 3DS.

Animal Crossing Switch will Triple sales of New Leaf by the year's end.

Pokemon Shield has outsold X and Y.

Clubhouse Games has sold over 2.5 million copies. 

Oragami King has already outsold Sticker Star by about half a million copies. Ditto for Star Allies. 

Twilight Princess vs BOTW is at best one piece of data suggesting that "PS4 style games" are selling well on the Switch (and honestly, I'd say that despite being both open world games there is a monumental difference between BOTW and something like Spider-man). Nothing else that is doing big numbers on the Switch is very PS4 ish.

Meanwhile, pretty much all of Nintendo's key franchises are beating and in most cases outright crushing their 3DS numbers. 

If we're trying to see if these gamers came more from the PS4/XBox One crowd or were lapsed Wii/DS owners, we are left with two possibilities.

A) PS4 and XBox Owners came to the Switch in large numbers primarily for BOTW. Despite the Switch not really having the kinds of games that thrived on the PS4. And then, they didn't really buy any of the PS4 style games on the Switch in big numbers. And they traded Fifa, Call of Duty, Halo, Gears of War, and Uncharted for Animal Crossing, Pokemon, Mario Kart, and Mario Party. 

or...

B)The Switch appealed to a large swath of lapsed Wii/DS owners, and people with similar tastes. They have been buying games similar to those which they enjoyed on the DS or Wii, which is why games like those have seen large increases in sales. They're not especially interested in PS4ish games, which is why while some of those games do decently on Switch (not saying no PS4 owners bought a Switch), they are not performing exceptionally well. These fans for whatever reason also really like Breath of the Wild. Logical reasons might include the age of the gamers (the younger Switch owners are now old enough for a more complicated game), the quality of the game (Twilight Princess was a great formulaic Zelda game, BOTW is a transcendant potential Game of the Generation), the style of the game (BOTW definitely takes some cues from things like Minecraft that have become quite popular), etc. 

If instead of cherry picking (looking just at BOTW, acting as though Wii Sports was the sole game that made the Wii sell, not considering what's selling on PS4/Xbox One) you look at all the data, Wii/DS owners being a major contributor to the Switch's success makes WAY more sense than PS4/XBone owners.