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Forums - Sales Discussion - The evolution of the console market over time

If those 8m RF casuals only returned when RF appeared that means RFA would be responsible for ~1/3rd of this years hybrid sales given no-one buys a Switch Lite for RFA.

Seems unlikely that Switch would have such poor 2020 sales without RFA.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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JWeinCom said:

Mario Kart is what Nintendo called a bridge game.  It appeals both to new gamers and also to really experienced gamers.  It can be hard to tell where those sales are coming from.  What I can tell you, for sure, is that Mario Kart was the most popular game on both the Wii U and the 3DS.  It is also currently the most popular game on the Switch.  It was not the most popular game on the Wii.  Wii Sports was by far the most popular game.

Uhhhhhhh... so?
(...)

You made a long thoughtful post with some good points.  However, I can tell by these first two words that you missed the context of what I was talking about.  Let me back up and provide some context.

Go back to Rol's table in his first post.  If you are like me, then it probably is not entirely clear what some of his terms mean immediately, and you might also wonder why he put some systems into certain categories.  After getting a couple of replies from him, I realized that he is using the terms "arcade" and "accessible" interchangeably.

For example in one previous post he said, "I've said it multiple times before, a complete version of such a table would include handheld consoles. I can tell you where Nintendo's handhelds would be placed: GB/C, GBA and DS would all be Arcade Evolution, because those were the games those handhelds were about."

Does the DS really represent arcade gaming though?  It has a touch screen and stylus.  This kind of control scheme is pretty similar to how a mouse works.  With a mouse you might scroll your cursor onto some icon and click on it, and that is pretty similar to tapping your stylus on an icon on a touchscreen.  The DS controls are actually a move toward the PC direction compared to the GBA.  Also there were some top selling DS games like Brain Age and Nintendogs which used a stylus a lot like how a person might play these games with a mouse.  The DS is definitely an accessible system, but it is also a move toward PC gaming compared to the GBA.  However, Rol says the DS and GBA are equally arcade-like, because he is using the terms "arcade" and "accessible" interchangeably.

Now the systems we were actually comparing were not the DS and GBA.  We were comparing the Wii and the Switch.  Rol has both of these in his "arcade evolution" category, because he thinks they are both equally accessible.  I don't think these two systems are equally accessible.  I don't think the Switch has any really popular game that is accessible as Wii Sports.

Now you, or anyone else, are free to disagree with me.  Maybe you think the Switch is just as accessible as the Wii or even more accessible.  However, at least now I hope you know the context of what I was talking about.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

Does the DS really represent arcade gaming though?  It has a touch screen and stylus.  This kind of control scheme is pretty similar to how a mouse works.  With a mouse you might scroll your cursor onto some icon and click on it, and that is pretty similar to tapping your stylus on an icon on a touchscreen.  The DS controls are actually a move toward the PC direction compared to the GBA.  Also there were some top selling DS games like Brain Age and Nintendogs which used a stylus a lot like how a person might play these games with a mouse.  The DS is definitely an accessible system, but it is also a move toward PC gaming compared to the GBA.  However, Rol says the DS and GBA are equally arcade-like, because he is using the terms "arcade" and "accessible" interchangeably.

Brain Training had you hold the DS like a book and use the stylus like a pen. Arcade-like simplicity.

In regards to point n touch/press/click, you're right it's like a mouse but the mouse was a simple, arcade-like innovation for computers.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

I think the Switch has a lot more in common with the SNES, Genesis and PS1 (and even the PS2, to a lesser extent) than the Wii, but I don’t think it has much in common with the PS4/Xbox either.

I tend to think of the Switch as a “Super SNES”. This amazing system really throws me in a glorified SNES/PS1 era. 

Last edited by Valdney - on 01 April 2021

The_Liquid_Laser said:
JWeinCom said:

Mario Kart is what Nintendo called a bridge game.  It appeals both to new gamers and also to really experienced gamers.  It can be hard to tell where those sales are coming from.  What I can tell you, for sure, is that Mario Kart was the most popular game on both the Wii U and the 3DS.  It is also currently the most popular game on the Switch.  It was not the most popular game on the Wii.  Wii Sports was by far the most popular game.

Uhhhhhhh... so?
(...)

You made a long thoughtful post with some good points.  However, I can tell by these first two words that you missed the context of what I was talking about.  Let me back up and provide some context.

Go back to Rol's table in his first post.  If you are like me, then it probably is not entirely clear what some of his terms mean immediately, and you might also wonder why he put some systems into certain categories.  After getting a couple of replies from him, I realized that he is using the terms "arcade" and "accessible" interchangeably.

For example in one previous post he said, "I've said it multiple times before, a complete version of such a table would include handheld consoles. I can tell you where Nintendo's handhelds would be placed: GB/C, GBA and DS would all be Arcade Evolution, because those were the games those handhelds were about."

Does the DS really represent arcade gaming though?  It has a touch screen and stylus.  This kind of control scheme is pretty similar to how a mouse works.  With a mouse you might scroll your cursor onto some icon and click on it, and that is pretty similar to tapping your stylus on an icon on a touchscreen.  The DS controls are actually a move toward the PC direction compared to the GBA.  Also there were some top selling DS games like Brain Age and Nintendogs which used a stylus a lot like how a person might play these games with a mouse.  The DS is definitely an accessible system, but it is also a move toward PC gaming compared to the GBA.  However, Rol says the DS and GBA are equally arcade-like, because he is using the terms "arcade" and "accessible" interchangeably.

Now the systems we were actually comparing were not the DS and GBA.  We were comparing the Wii and the Switch.  Rol has both of these in his "arcade evolution" category, because he thinks they are both equally accessible.  I don't think these two systems are equally accessible.  I don't think the Switch has any really popular game that is accessible as Wii Sports.

Now you, or anyone else, are free to disagree with me.  Maybe you think the Switch is just as accessible as the Wii or even more accessible.  However, at least now I hope you know the context of what I was talking about.

Gotta admit, I'm a bit irked. Cause this feels a bit evasive, and I feel I wasted my time in replying. 

There isn't any context I missed or misunderstood. I generally find semantic argument about labels, such as what counts as arcade or not to be incredibly dull and pointless. If two people agree on terms, then that's all that matters. So, while I understand your discussion about arcade vs accessibility, I did not respond to that part.

The question of where Switch sales likely came from is a question that can be answered with facts, data, and logic, and is one that I thought might be worth discussing. That's the point I chose to comment on. Whether the Switch sales came from the PS4 and Xbox 1 as you stated is a factual claim that stands on its own independent of any context. The Switch sales came from the PS4 or they did not, and what Rol means by "arcade evolution" is completely irrelevant to that point. Whether the Switch is as accessible as the Wii is at best tangentially related to the claim.  

I'll give the benefit of the doubt that this was not an attempt to be evasive. So, kindly answer these yes or no questions.

1. Did you say "these "new" sales the Switch is getting are not coming from the Wii. The extra sales are coming from the PS4 and XB1 crowd"?

2. Was my post responsive to this claim? I.e. did it propose reasons why we either should or should not accept that claim?

If the answer to both of these questions is yes, then you should either explain why my counterargument is not sound, or concede that the extra sales are not likely from the PS4 crowd. Alternatively, you can say "I'm not going to defend the point, and you wasted your time replying". But, don't tell me that I somehow "missed the context" when I am directly addressing a claim you made. 

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 01 April 2021

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Even if Switch was limited to former Wii owners, it would still have a much higher potential consumer base if most of those Wii owners wanted a Switch. The reason is Wii wasn't commonly owned by just one person, it was usually communally owned or used, by a household or a family. If you lived in a house with 4 or 5 other roommates, it's unlikely you'd have more than one Wii between everyone; but you might have 4 or 5 Switches down the road. This is why even though way more DSs sold, just about every DS owner had a Wii at home - even if they didn't themselves own a Wii.

It's also why I like the Switch hybrid so much, because this can work with Switch alone - a household with one Switch as the community console might turn into a household with 4-5 personal Switch consoles (speaking from experience).



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

JWeinCom said:

 you look at all the data, Wii/DS owners being a major contributor to the Switch's success makes WAY more sense than PS4/XBone owners.

Well, as of 2020 40% of Switch owners also have PS4 or Xbox in USA

In UK this number is closer to 60%

So yeah, like half of Switch userbase comes from PS4/Xbone

Switch having a huge part of DS owners makes sense, as half of DS owners also bought a 3DS and Switch is just the sequel of 3DS. The four biggest 3DS franchises are also exclusively on Switch: Aninal Crossing, Pokemon, Mario Kart and 2D Marios

But Wii-only gamers are honestly a minor factor here. With 4 Wii-related games selling over 20 million copies and not a single one of them being on Switch it's hard to believe the Wii-only gamers come back to Switch 

I'm actually more inclined to believe very old Nintendo gamers from SNES and N64 who left Nintendo home consoles came back again to play Mario Odyssey and Breath of The Wild 



IcaroRibeiro said:
JWeinCom said:

 you look at all the data, Wii/DS owners being a major contributor to the Switch's success makes WAY more sense than PS4/XBone owners.

Well, as of 2020 40% of Switch owners also have PS4 or Xbox in USA

In UK this number is closer to 60%

So yeah, like half of Switch userbase comes from PS4/Xbone

Switch having a huge part of DS owners makes sense, as half of DS owners also bought a 3DS and Switch is just the sequel of 3DS. The four biggest 3DS franchises are also exclusively on Switch: Aninal Crossing, Pokemon, Mario Kart and 2D Marios

But Wii-only gamers are honestly a minor factor here. With 4 Wii-related games selling over 20 million copies and not a single one of them being on Switch it's hard to believe the Wii-only gamers come back to Switch 

I'm actually more inclined to believe very old Nintendo gamers from SNES and N64 who left Nintendo home consoles came back again to play Mario Odyssey and Breath of The Wild 

There's a few problems here.

1. First off, there's a chicken and an egg problem. For instance, I own a PS4 and an XBox One, I'm primarily a Nintendo gamer. So, if you just count co-ownership, you don't whether it is somebody who owned a PS4 who was converted to Wii, or vice versa. Knowing the gaming preference would be useful here. 

For clarity's sake, I should have probably said something like "lapsed Wii gamers". What I assume was meant, (at least what I meant) was people who were Wii owners, didn't buy a 3DS or a Wii U, and now bought a Switch. These people might have bought a PS4 in the interim (like me) but the appeal of the Switch was for a Wii-ish experience.

2. Second, that figure is going down if you believe the available data (we have no idea of knowing how accurate it is since there is one source as far as I know). In 2018 the figure was 70%.https://nintendosoup.com/npd-70-of-switch-owners-also-own-a-ps4-or-xbox-one/

We were somewhere over 50 in early 2019 https://gamingbolt.com/over-50-of-switch-owners-own-ps4-over-40-own-xbox-one-npd-group

Now we're at over 40. https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/01/more_than_40_percent_of_switch_owners_in_the_us_have_another_video_game_system

The data on this seems to all come from NPD. Possibly their data is off altogether (even if not there'd be a margin of error). But if we want to take their results at face value, that means that the number of co-owners is shrinking pretty quickly, and will likely continue to fall. This would suggest that the early adopters were generally big gamers (not surprising) who were likely to buy multiple consoles, and the newer people buying Switches are not PS4 or XBox One owners.  

3. Building on that point, what about Wii? The data on that is more scarce but, as of 2009, https://www.alistdaily.com/media/most-wii-owners-do-not-own-xbox-360-ps3/ about 14% of Wii owners had a PS3 and about 26% owned a PS3. That number almost definitely went up as sales of the Wii dropped, sales of the 360 and PS3 increased, and Sony and Microsoft both directly targeted the Wii market with Kinect and Move. Depending on how many people owned all three, between 26 and 40% of Wii owners had another console as of 2009.

Considering that the number of Switch owners who own another console has been dropping and is somewhere above 40% (in the US anyway), then ultimately, the numbers of Switch owners owning a PS4One will not be too far off from Wii60 and PSWii owners. 

As for the "4 Wii games" argument...

1. This is pretty sketchy. I'm not sure exactly what you're counting, cause technically there are 5. Wii Sports, Play, Fit, Fit Plus, Sports Resort. 

Wii Fit/Plus has a spiritual successor in Ring Fit that is actually doing quite very well. It will definitely hit ten million, and has the potential to hit 20 million in the long run. Play shouldn't count because it was purchased mainly because it came with an additional Wiimote. So, there's really only two that haven't yet come to Switch, Sports and Sports resort.

Also, if you want to say that the gamers can't be former Wii players because the games with "Wii in the title" didn't come to Switch, then how does that jive with PS4 owners accounting for a huge jump in sales? Call of Duty and GTA aren't here, Fifa ain't selling on Switch, and TLOUS style horror games aren't doing much. 

2. The problem here again is that like Laser, you're conflating Wii owners with "people who bought Wii Sports and nothing else". And, that really isn't the case.

The Wii sold about 920 million games. Wii Sports/Play/Fit/Plus/Play/Motion/Party/Music etc sold around 190 million copies. This is only about 20% of what was purchased for the Wii.

So sure, there are some people who only played Wii Sports and Wii Fit and nothing else, and those people probably have not bought a Switch and likely will not unless something like that comes out, and maybe not even them.

But, a lot of Wii/DS owners bought Wii Sports and then played Mario Kart, or Mario Party, New Super Mario Bros, Smash, Kirby, Paper Mario, Mario Galaxy, Pokemon, etc. Those games dropped big from Wii/DS days and now are jumping back up again.

So... which who's more likely buying Mario Party, Ring Fit, and Mario Odyssey, in huge numbers while not buying almost no rated M games, shooters, or sports games (except maybe Fortnite)?

Honestly, this is a system where Clubhouse Games is outselling NBA 2K, Doom, Fifa, Witcher 3, and Skyrim, and people are like "you know, I bet it's succeeding because of all those PS4 fans". Come on now... 

I'm actually more inclined to believe very old Nintendo gamers from SNES and N64 who left Nintendo home consoles came back again to play Mario Odyssey and Breath of The Wild 

O_o..?

Mario Galaxy outsold Mario 64. New Super Mario Bros Wii outsold Mario World (by a lot). And Galaxy 2 crushes Mario World 2 for what it's worth.

Considering that, why on Earth would you be inclined to believe that the group that bought less Mario, is less than half the size in absolute numbers, and last bought a Nintendo console a decade or two earlier bought more Switches than Wii owners?

It's semi more plausible with Zelda (TP sold about the same as Ocarina without GC sales, although it handily outsold LTTP), but still outside some weird Wii bias, I can't figure out why this would be logical.

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 02 April 2021

JWeinCom said:

There's a few problems here.

1. First off, there's a chicken and an egg problem. For instance, I own a PS4 and an XBox One, I'm primarily a Nintendo gamer. So, if you just count co-ownership, you don't whether it is somebody who owned a PS4 who was converted to Wii, or vice versa. Knowing the gaming preference would be useful here. 

For clarity's sake, I should have probably said something like "lapsed Wii gamers". What I assume was meant, (at least what I meant) was people who were Wii owners, didn't buy a 3DS or a Wii U, and now bought a Switch. These people might have bought a PS4 in the interim (like me) but the appeal of the Switch was for a Wii-ish experience.

2. Second, that figure is going down if you believe the available data (which is shaky at best). In 2018 the figure was 70%.https://nintendosoup.com/npd-70-of-switch-owners-also-own-a-ps4-or-xbox-one/

We were somewhere over 50 in early 2019 https://gamingbolt.com/over-50-of-switch-owners-own-ps4-over-40-own-xbox-one-npd-group

Now we're at over 40. https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/01/more_than_40_percent_of_switch_owners_in_the_us_have_another_video_game_system

The data on this seems to all come from NPD. Possibly their data is off altogether (even if not there'd be a margin of error). But if we want to take their results at face value, that means that the number of co-owners is shrinking pretty quickly, and will likely continue to fall. This would suggest that the early adopters were generally big gamers (not surprising) who were likely to buy multiple consoles, and the newer people buying Switches are not PS4 or XBox One owners.  

3. Building on that point, what about Wii? The data on that is more scarce but, as of 2009, https://www.alistdaily.com/media/most-wii-owners-do-not-own-xbox-360-ps3/ about 14% of Wii owners had a PS3 and about 26% owned a PS3. That number almost definitely went up as sales of the Wii dropped, sales of the 360 and PS3 increased, and Sony and Microsoft both directly targeted the Wii market with Kinect and Move. Depending on how many people owned all three, between 26 and 40% of Wii owners had another console as of 2009.

Considering that the number of Switch owners who own another console has been dropping and is somewhere above 40% (in the US anyway), then ultimately, the numbers of Switch owners owning a PS4One will not be too far off from Wii60 and PSWii owners. It's a bit higher, so sure, some people who previously played mainly on PS4 or XBox One are mixed in there, but that's not the driving force. 

As for the "4 Wii games" argument...

1. This is pretty sketchy. I'm not sure exactly what you're counting, cause technically there are 5. Wii Sports, Play, Fit, Fit Plus, Sports Resort. 

Wii Fit/Plus has a spiritual successor in Ring Fit that is actually doing quite very well. It will definitely hit ten million, and has the potential to hit 20 million in the long run. Play shouldn't count because it was purchased mainly because it came with an additional Wiimote. So, there's really only two that haven't yet come to Switch, Sports and Sports resort.

Also, if you want to say that the gamers can't be former Wii players because the games with "Wii in the title" didn't come to Switch, then how does that jive with PS4 owners accounting for a huge jump in sales? Call of Duty and GTA aren't here, Fifa ain't selling on Switch, and TLOUS style horror games aren't doing much. 

2. The problem here again is that like Laser, you're conflating Wii owners with "people who bought Wii Sports and nothing else". And, that really isn't the case.

The Wii sold about 920 million games. Wii Sports/Play/Fit/Plus/Play/Motion/Party/Music etc sold around 190 million copies. This is only about 20% of what was purchased for the Wii.

So sure, there are some people who only played Wii Sports and Wii Fit and nothing else, and those people probably have not bought a Switch and likely will not unless something like that comes out, and maybe not even them.

But, a lot of Wii owners bought Wii Sports and then played Mario Kart, or Mario Party, New Super Mario Bros, Smash, Mario Galaxy, etc etc. Those people may have, and I think did in many cases, come back.

To the same point as my last post, we have tons of traditional Nintendo franchises that were on the Wii or DS, then 3DS, and now Switch. Mario Party, 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Mario Kart, Mario Tennis, Kirby, Paper Mario, Smash, etc. In pretty much every case the games are solidly beating their 3ds versions, in about half, they are completely destroying them. Are these sales likely more attributable to Wii/DS players (who were the driving force the last time these franchises were successful) or PS4 owners who are now buying games in franchises, genres, and styles they don't support all that much on PS4?

I'm actually more inclined to believe very old Nintendo gamers from SNES and N64 who left Nintendo home consoles came back again to play Mario Odyssey and Breath of The Wild 

O_o..?

Mario Galaxy outsold Mario 64. New Super Mario Bros Wii outsold Mario World (by a lot). And Galaxy 2 crushes Mario World 2 for what it's worth.

Considering that, why on Earth would you be inclined to believe that the group that bought less Mario, is less than half the size in absolute numbers, and last bought a Nintendo console a decade or two earlier bought more Switches than Wii owners?

It's semi more plausible with Zelda (TP sold about the same as Ocarina without GC sales, although it handily outsold LTTP), but still outside some weird Wii bias, I can't figure out why this would be logical.

1) Wii Sports was bundled outside Japan, that's why I skipped it to favor games that people actively spent their money on

2) PS4/XBONE owners are the console gamers who are used to play games with standard controllers, action-adventure, RPGs, platformers and so on. Sometimes I feel people think Nintendo gamers and PS4/Xbone gamers are two completely separate groups. It's anecdotal evidence, but almost every PS4/Xbone gamer over 30 years old I know used to play Nintendo games from NES, SNES and N64 eras (even if they played those games illegally). Just because those people are picking Sony and Microsoft for quite sometime it doesn't mean they were doomed to never buy a Nintendo home console again (specially because in reality they never really stopped playing Nintendo, as handheld sales suggest). When those guys come back? In my opinion, they are coming back on Switch 

3) You are totally right, I'm biased against Wii, that's why I shouldn't have talked about Wii user base as a whole. I guess I might now have make myself clear, for Wii-only gamers I wasn't talking about gamers who have Wii but not PS3 or X360, but to newcomers, gamers who got into gaming because of Wii games (mostly Wii Sports games, as those sells humongous numbers) and they seem to account for some relevant part of that generation market.

In 6th generation a total of 212 million home consoles were sold (Dreamcast included)
One generation later this number increased to 275 million

Market growth aside it's a very big increase. As industry growth, new teenagers and kids got into gaming and overall people get more wealth such growth is expected

The problem is after 275 million hardware was sold in 7th gen so far we have 245 million (Switch Lite removed) hardware sold with both PS4 and Xbone dying, Wii U dead and it's just with Switch inflating the hell of this stats thanks to the huge influx of handheld owners who buy only handhelds (particularly common in Japan where Switch success is beyond madness) it's still a decrease of 30 million systems and I'm very inclined to believe those guys were mostly Wii owners than PS3-X360 owners for the single reason PS4 and XBone are so similar to PS3 and X360 that I wouldn't understand why those system would bleed buyers (plus sales for PS3+Xbox360 and PS4+XBone are similar)

How to explain those 30 million hardware not bought (yet) for 8th generation despite the marketing increase in all kinds of metrics? Was PS3-X360 owners who decided not buying hardware anymore? Possible, but more unlikely. Sales for PS4+Xbone are only 8 million less than PS3+X360, their userbase seems to be quite consistent, maybe declining a bit because people are ditching them in favor to Switch for a while now, but overall the numbers seems stable 

For me, those are more likely the Wii owners who got into games like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Resort, etc. I don't see this crowd buying Switch massively so far indeed the only game that look remotely close to Wii is Ring Fit and this game it's not going to be nowhere near as Wii Sports despite Switch being very likely to outsell Wii in 2021 already. If those gamers are Wii Sports crowd they might be really slow to pick Ring Fit

And this crowd was huge, we are talking about a series of games that together moved about 21% of the total software of a system you maybe not realize how big it is but I can't think a single franchise that was able to get that close of software share of any Nintendo system (or in any console system at all). Not even all Mario franchises combined, not even Pokemon on 3DS, nothing

So yeah, I'm not seeing this Wii-crowned accounting for a big chunk of Switch sales, not until I see a huge influx of software similar to RFA pulling the same numbers of what they used to pull on Wii days



IcaroRibeiro said:
JWeinCom said:

There's a few problems here.

1. First off, there's a chicken and an egg problem. For instance, I own a PS4 and an XBox One, I'm primarily a Nintendo gamer. So, if you just count co-ownership, you don't whether it is somebody who owned a PS4 who was converted to Wii, or vice versa. Knowing the gaming preference would be useful here. 

For clarity's sake, I should have probably said something like "lapsed Wii gamers". What I assume was meant, (at least what I meant) was people who were Wii owners, didn't buy a 3DS or a Wii U, and now bought a Switch. These people might have bought a PS4 in the interim (like me) but the appeal of the Switch was for a Wii-ish experience.

2. Second, that figure is going down if you believe the available data (which is shaky at best). In 2018 the figure was 70%.https://nintendosoup.com/npd-70-of-switch-owners-also-own-a-ps4-or-xbox-one/

We were somewhere over 50 in early 2019 https://gamingbolt.com/over-50-of-switch-owners-own-ps4-over-40-own-xbox-one-npd-group

Now we're at over 40. https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2020/01/more_than_40_percent_of_switch_owners_in_the_us_have_another_video_game_system

The data on this seems to all come from NPD. Possibly their data is off altogether (even if not there'd be a margin of error). But if we want to take their results at face value, that means that the number of co-owners is shrinking pretty quickly, and will likely continue to fall. This would suggest that the early adopters were generally big gamers (not surprising) who were likely to buy multiple consoles, and the newer people buying Switches are not PS4 or XBox One owners.  

3. Building on that point, what about Wii? The data on that is more scarce but, as of 2009, https://www.alistdaily.com/media/most-wii-owners-do-not-own-xbox-360-ps3/ about 14% of Wii owners had a PS3 and about 26% owned a PS3. That number almost definitely went up as sales of the Wii dropped, sales of the 360 and PS3 increased, and Sony and Microsoft both directly targeted the Wii market with Kinect and Move. Depending on how many people owned all three, between 26 and 40% of Wii owners had another console as of 2009.

Considering that the number of Switch owners who own another console has been dropping and is somewhere above 40% (in the US anyway), then ultimately, the numbers of Switch owners owning a PS4One will not be too far off from Wii60 and PSWii owners. It's a bit higher, so sure, some people who previously played mainly on PS4 or XBox One are mixed in there, but that's not the driving force. 

As for the "4 Wii games" argument...

1. This is pretty sketchy. I'm not sure exactly what you're counting, cause technically there are 5. Wii Sports, Play, Fit, Fit Plus, Sports Resort. 

Wii Fit/Plus has a spiritual successor in Ring Fit that is actually doing quite very well. It will definitely hit ten million, and has the potential to hit 20 million in the long run. Play shouldn't count because it was purchased mainly because it came with an additional Wiimote. So, there's really only two that haven't yet come to Switch, Sports and Sports resort.

Also, if you want to say that the gamers can't be former Wii players because the games with "Wii in the title" didn't come to Switch, then how does that jive with PS4 owners accounting for a huge jump in sales? Call of Duty and GTA aren't here, Fifa ain't selling on Switch, and TLOUS style horror games aren't doing much. 

2. The problem here again is that like Laser, you're conflating Wii owners with "people who bought Wii Sports and nothing else". And, that really isn't the case.

The Wii sold about 920 million games. Wii Sports/Play/Fit/Plus/Play/Motion/Party/Music etc sold around 190 million copies. This is only about 20% of what was purchased for the Wii.

So sure, there are some people who only played Wii Sports and Wii Fit and nothing else, and those people probably have not bought a Switch and likely will not unless something like that comes out, and maybe not even them.

But, a lot of Wii owners bought Wii Sports and then played Mario Kart, or Mario Party, New Super Mario Bros, Smash, Mario Galaxy, etc etc. Those people may have, and I think did in many cases, come back.

To the same point as my last post, we have tons of traditional Nintendo franchises that were on the Wii or DS, then 3DS, and now Switch. Mario Party, 3D Mario, 2D Mario, Mario Kart, Mario Tennis, Kirby, Paper Mario, Smash, etc. In pretty much every case the games are solidly beating their 3ds versions, in about half, they are completely destroying them. Are these sales likely more attributable to Wii/DS players (who were the driving force the last time these franchises were successful) or PS4 owners who are now buying games in franchises, genres, and styles they don't support all that much on PS4?

I'm actually more inclined to believe very old Nintendo gamers from SNES and N64 who left Nintendo home consoles came back again to play Mario Odyssey and Breath of The Wild 

O_o..?

Mario Galaxy outsold Mario 64. New Super Mario Bros Wii outsold Mario World (by a lot). And Galaxy 2 crushes Mario World 2 for what it's worth.

Considering that, why on Earth would you be inclined to believe that the group that bought less Mario, is less than half the size in absolute numbers, and last bought a Nintendo console a decade or two earlier bought more Switches than Wii owners?

It's semi more plausible with Zelda (TP sold about the same as Ocarina without GC sales, although it handily outsold LTTP), but still outside some weird Wii bias, I can't figure out why this would be logical.

1) Wii Sports was bundled outside Japan, that's why I skipped it to favor games that people actively spent their money on

2) PS4/XBONE owners are the console gamers who are used to play games with standard controllers, action-adventure, RPGs, platformers and so on. Sometimes I feel people think Nintendo gamers and PS4/Xbone gamers are two completely separate groups. It's anecdotal evidence, but almost every PS4/Xbone gamer over 30 years old I know used to play Nintendo games from NES, SNES and N64 eras (even if they played those games illegally). Just because those people are picking Sony and Microsoft for quite sometime it doesn't mean they were doomed to never buy a Nintendo home console again (specially because in reality they never really stopped playing Nintendo, as handheld sales suggest). When those guys come back? In my opinion, they are coming back on Switch 

3) You are totally right, I'm biased against Wii, that's why I shouldn't have talked about Wii user base as a whole. I guess I might now have make myself clear, for Wii-only gamers I wasn't talking about gamers who have Wii but not PS3 or X360, but to newcomers, gamers who got into gaming because of Wii games (mostly Wii Sports games, as those sells humongous numbers) and they seem to account for some relevant part of that generation market.

In 6th generation a total of 212 million home consoles were sold (Dreamcast included)
One generation later this number increased to 275 million

Market growth aside it's a very big increase. As industry growth, new teenagers and kids got into gaming and overall people get more wealth such growth is expected

The problem is after 275 million hardware was sold in 7th gen so far we have 245 million (Switch Lite removed) hardware sold with both PS4 and Xbone dying, Wii U dead and it's just with Switch inflating the hell of this stats thanks to the huge influx of handheld owners who buy only handhelds (particularly common in Japan where Switch success is beyond madness) it's still a decrease of 30 million systems and I'm very inclined to believe those guys were mostly Wii owners than PS3-X360 owners for the single reason PS4 and XBone are so similar to PS3 and X360 that I wouldn't understand why those system would bleed buyers (plus sales for PS3+Xbox360 and PS4+XBone are similar)

How to explain those 30 million hardware not bought (yet) for 8th generation despite the marketing increase in all kinds of metrics? Was PS3-X360 owners who decided not buying hardware anymore? Possible, but more unlikely. Sales for PS4+Xbone are only 8 million less than PS3+X360, their userbase seems to be quite consistent, maybe declining a bit because people are ditching them in favor to Switch for a while now, but overall the numbers seems stable 

For me, those are more likely the Wii owners who got into games like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Resort, etc. I don't see this crowd buying Switch massively so far indeed the only game that look remotely close to Wii is Ring Fit and this game it's not going to be nowhere near as Wii Sports despite Switch being very likely to outsell Wii in 2021 already. If those gamers are Wii Sports crowd they might be really slow to pick Ring Fit

And this crowd was huge, we are talking about a series of games that together moved about 21% of the total software of a system you maybe not realize how big it is but I can't think a single franchise that was able to get that close of software share of any Nintendo system (or in any console system at all). Not even all Mario franchises combined, not even Pokemon on 3DS, nothing

So yeah, I'm not seeing this Wii-crowned accounting for a big chunk of Switch sales, not until I see a huge influx of software similar to RFA pulling the same numbers of what they used to pull on Wii days

1. If you take out Wii Sports and Wii Play (people chose to spend ten bucks for it I guess, but still shouldn't count IMO) then the only "Wii games" that put out huge numbers are Wii Fit/Plus and Sports Resort. So it's really two games you're talking about. One of which has a pseudo sequel that's selling very well. 

And, if you take Wii Sports out of the picture, the top selling games are Mario Kart, Wii Sports Resort, NSMB Wii, Smash, Wii Fit, Super Mario Galaxy, Just Dance, Wii Party, and Mario Party 8.

With the exception of Sports resort and Just Dance (which I'm only excluding for lack of data, although I guess if it was truly doing amazing Ubisoft would have said something) those are pretty much the same kinds of games that are doing well on Switch. They'll all have 10 million plus selling sequels or spiritual successors on the Switch, so that indicates similar people are buying the system. 

2. When you start by saying "I know it's anecdotal evidence, but" that's where you should stop. 

3. How to explain those 30 million hardware not bought (yet) for 8th generation despite the marketing increase in all kinds of metrics?

I don't have to, because nobody was arguing that the Switch recaptured 100% of the Wii audience. That's not the question we were addressing. We're addressing why the Switch is selling so much better than the Wii U and 3DS.

4. I guess I might now have make myself clear, for Wii-only gamers I wasn't talking about gamers who have Wii but not PS3 or X360, but to newcomers, gamers who got into gaming because of Wii games (mostly Wii Sports games, as those sells humongous numbers) and they seem to account for some relevant part of that generation market.

...

For me, those are more likely the Wii owners who got into games like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Resort, etc. I don't see this crowd buying Switch massively so far indeed the only game that look remotely close to Wii is Ring Fit and this game it's not going to be nowhere near as Wii Sports despite Switch being very likely to outsell Wii in 2021 already. If those gamers are Wii Sports crowd they might be really slow to pick Ring Fit

You claimed half the user base "comes from PS4 or XBox One" because Switch owners own those systems (regardless of whether or not they owned any other consoles)... but, if someone who owned a Wii buys a Switch, it doesn't count unless they only owned the Wii and nothing before and even then, they only really count if they were one of the people who bought it for Wii Sports/Fit... 

You've sort of stacked the deck there, haven't you? Let's use the same standard for all the systems. How many Switch sales do you think are coming from people who entered the market with the PS4? 

4. And this crowd was huge, we are talking about a series of games that together moved about 21% of the total software of a system you maybe not realize how big it is but I can't think a single franchise that was able to get that close of software share of any Nintendo system (or in any console system at all). Not even all Mario franchises combined, not even Pokemon on 3DS, nothing.

No, it's actually a pretty small crowd, since you're excluding anyone who bought a Wii for some other game, or anyone who bought a Wii for Wii Sports/Fit and also wound up buying other games for it (considering how much sales of other franchises grew on the Wii, there had to be a lot of those).

5. So yeah, I'm not seeing this Wii-crowned accounting for a big chunk of Switch sales, not until I see a huge influx of software similar to RFA pulling the same numbers of what they used to pull on Wii days

Of course you're not seeing it, because you've defined Wii owner in a way that makes it an impossibility.

You've basically defined "Wii owner" as someone who bought a Wii for Wii _________ and only Wii ___________, never played any of the other games for Wii, and won't buy any machine in the future unless it has Wii ___________. And, if you define it that way, then obviously they can't make up any portion of the Switch sales, unless some Wii ______ equivalent is on Switch.

But... in fact, Wii owners bought other games. They bought 35 million copies of Mario Kart (about 30 million more than the previous best selling console version) about 13 million copies of Smash (5 million more than on Gamecube), 30+million copies of NSMB, 12 million copies of Mario Galaxy (+ 7 more of Galaxy 2), 9 million copies of Mario Party (about 6 million more than the previous best seller), and so on. 

So, I really can't see how people who bought Nintendo consoles in the fairly recent past, and bought a lot of the same kinds of games (a lot of them in the same series) that are selling on the Switch are not the most likely reason the Switch has expanded so much beyond what the 3DS audience migrating could explain aren't the most likely source of the influx of players.

Why would people who have never bought any games at all, or people who primarily played on the PS4 and played types of games that aren't selling well on Switch be more likely suspects?

Last edited by JWeinCom - on 02 April 2021