Currently Online 
| JWeinCom said: 1. If you take out Wii Sports and Wii Play (people chose to spend ten bucks for it I guess, but still shouldn't count IMO) then the only "Wii games" that put out huge numbers are Wii Fit/Plus and Sports Resort. So it's really two games you're talking about. One of which has a pseudo sequel that's selling very well. And, if you take Wii Sports out of the picture, the top selling games are Mario Kart, Wii Sports Resort, NSMB Wii, Smash, Wii Fit, Super Mario Galaxy, Just Dance, Wii Party, and Mario Party 8. With the exception of Sports resort and Just Dance (which I'm only excluding for lack of data, although I guess if it was truly doing amazing Ubisoft would have said something) those are pretty much the same kinds of games that are doing well on Switch. They'll all have 10 million plus selling sequels or spiritual successors on the Switch, so that indicates similar people are buying the system. 2. When you start by saying "I know it's anecdotal evidence, but" that's where you should stop. 3. How to explain those 30 million hardware not bought (yet) for 8th generation despite the marketing increase in all kinds of metrics? I don't have to, because nobody was arguing that the Switch recaptured 100% of the Wii audience. That's not the question we were addressing. We're addressing why the Switch is selling so much better than the Wii U and 3DS. 4. I guess I might now have make myself clear, for Wii-only gamers I wasn't talking about gamers who have Wii but not PS3 or X360, but to newcomers, gamers who got into gaming because of Wii games (mostly Wii Sports games, as those sells humongous numbers) and they seem to account for some relevant part of that generation market. ... For me, those are more likely the Wii owners who got into games like Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Wii Resort, etc. I don't see this crowd buying Switch massively so far indeed the only game that look remotely close to Wii is Ring Fit and this game it's not going to be nowhere near as Wii Sports despite Switch being very likely to outsell Wii in 2021 already. If those gamers are Wii Sports crowd they might be really slow to pick Ring Fit You claimed half the user base "comes from PS4 or XBox One" because Switch owners own those systems (regardless of whether or not they owned any other consoles)... but, if someone who owned a Wii buys a Switch, it doesn't count unless they only owned the Wii and nothing before and even then, they only really count if they were one of the people who bought it for Wii Sports/Fit... You've sort of stacked the deck there, haven't you? Let's use the same standard for all the systems. How many Switch sales do you think are coming from people who entered the market with the PS4? |
1) You analysis adds absolutely nothing to the debate. I excluded Wii Sports because it was bundled so it was sell well regardless people bought their Wii for play this kind of game or if they bought their Wii to play Mario or Zelda. If I want to make an analysis of how much people bought the Wii mainly for Wii Sports type of game I need to first rule out the game that has an almost mandatory admission
2) Since you won't believe I don't know who do you expect those gamers to be. The first Sony console was released in 1994 and while I believe it was the first console of many gamers in several European, Latin and east asian countries there is absolute no way for it to be the same in Japan and USA. As for Xbox I don't think there isn't a thing to prove about it, Xbox was first released only in 2002, unless you are younger than 20 I will hardly believe it was the only console you ever played in your life.
3) I understand you want to explain why Switch sales are great, while Wii U flopped and 3DS underperformed compared to DS
Well DS owners being very present on Switch really makes sense to me, the only very well selling DS games that have no space on Switch are Brain Age and Nintendogs, while sales for Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Mario Kart, etc kept consistent in both DS and 3DS despite 3DS selling a half of DS and on Switch all those games are selling just as much or better than DS or 3DS
However when it comes to Wii Games a set of games that brings in over 20% (a number you are so unaware of how big it is in the context of software sales) of all Wii software purchases are are mostly absent with only ONE game selling "on pair" with all those kind of games
Almost all other franchises you are quoting, Mario Kart, (New) Super Mario Bros, Mario Party are among the best sellers of any Nintendo system, either handheld or home console. If their existence does not catapulted Wii U sales I don't see why would they increase Switch sales. While Mario (mainly 3D Mario) has a very huge fandom and people who quite buy Nintendo to play them the absolute majority of Mario Party and Mario Kart sales seems to scale based on userbase, they are the perfect games to "complete your game collection" rather than "a game you buy a system for", so they absolute not explain Switch sales, nor explain why Wii U flopped
That's why I see a strong correlation with DS/3DS userbase and Switch userbase
But much weaker correlation with Wii userbase compared to Switch userbase, that's why I stated Wii userbase have a "minor impact on Switch sales" (minor compared to other groups like DS-3DS and PS-Xbox)
4) Well, if half of Switch owners also own Xbox and PS4 why shouldn't I say Switch owners comes from Xbox and PS4 owners?
Granted Switch is selling much better than any Nintendo hardware ever (minus DS) and how a very significant part of Switch owners also have Playstation and Xbox I'd say Switch is selling well exactly because of that.
I started this whole discussion because you seems to believe Sony/MS console owners are the minor factor here, while believing previous Nintendo owners + newcomers are the major factor for Switch sales
When I believe it's a bit more complicated. Handheld userbase come in droves, checked, but home console owners? Switch top selling games list seems to have more in common with any other Nintendo home console than Wii, exaclty because of the absence of so many Wii Sports kind of games filling their best sellers list
