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Forums - Sales Discussion - The evolution of the console market over time

RolStoppable said:

Your definitions for arcade and PC sides are strange. You construct a definition to shift the DS more to the PC side ("touchscreen is like mouse"), but the Wii-Remote with its infrared pointer which is even closer to a mouse is completely omitted. Similarly, 3D graphics should not be a defining trait of PC gaming. After all, both Nintendo and Sega made notable prominent efforts to have 3D or pseudo-3D graphics on their 16-bit consoles. The storage medium of a console should not define the arcade or PC side either.

I think somebody in this thread already made you aware that Ring Fit Adventure is a big hit on Switch. Same thing for Switch's standard controller which can be broken up into motion controllers similar to the Wii-Remote. Sure, these things aren't going to create the same level of excitement as the Wii because they evolve an idea rather than being the new thing. Similarly, your qualifier of appealing to non-gamers is very arbitrary because in this day and age almost everyone has played a video game at some point with how omnipresent smartphones are in the world.

As for your summary:

In summary, the history of the console market shows that customers tend to buy the system that offers new experiences.

That's not true because there is a bunch of successful consoles that didn't offer much or anything in terms of new experiences. But if that is the conclusion you wanted to arrive at all along, then it explains the logical inconsistencies in your recap of console history.

It's funny you think the infrared pointer is the most defining feature of the Wii remote.  What matters most is how it is used most commonly, especially in the most popular games.  Also, what is the point of this argument?  Do you personally believe that Wii is not an arcade machine now, or are you just nitpicking on stuff that you don't really believe in the first place?

3D is definitely an aspect of PC gaming.  Myst, DOOM, Wing Commander, etc... were all big 3D franchises in the early 90s.  At the same time the arcades had Virtua Fighter and that was about it.  The big 90's arcade games were 2D fighting games.  

The mistake you make is that you think arcade gaming is defined by consoles.  It isn't.  Arcade gaming is defined by the games that were in the arcades.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mandalore76 said:

I'd have to disagree with your moving the Genesis/Mega Drive from "Arcade Evolution" in Rol's table into "Arcade" in yours.  Games like Phantasy Star I-IV, Dragon Slayer I & II, Shining Force I & II, Shining in the Darkness, Sword of Vermillion, Surging Aura don't fit the narrative of Sega being "mostly focused on making arcade style games".  

I put the Genesis in column 1 to highlight that it was much more of an arcade console than the SNES. (And really for every generation Sega is more on the arcade side than Nintendo is.)  There were lots of arcade ports on the Genesis including quite a few by Sega.  I struggle to think of one arcade port on the SNES that was developed by Nintendo.  

On the other hand, you have a point in that Genesis is not a Neo Geo either.  Sega was making other types of games too like RPGs.  What it didn't really do so much was make "arcade evolution" games.  Either they made an arcade game or they made an RPG.  Meanwhile Super Mario World was an action platformer with an overworld and save files.  Sega wasn't really making too many games like this, "arcade evolution", but that was the focus for Nintendo.

Once Nintendo was able to get their arcade games directly into people's homes, their arcade division became more about porting Nintendo arcade type games from NES/SNES to coin-op rather than developing them the other way around.  See their VS. and Play Choice 10 coin-ops, Dr. Mario, F-Zero, etc.  Sega was more rooted in developing both coin-ops and home console games.  Sega has actively developed coin-ops from 1966 to today while their home console division came and went in less than 20 years (SG-1000 released in 1983 to the discontinuation of the Dreamcast in 2001).  But, that's not to say they didn't evolve their home console games of the time with the changing hardware.  Sonic 3 didn't have an overworld, but it did have save files.  Outside of platformers and previously mentioned RPG's, Sega developed strategy simulation games like Advanced Daisenryaku: Deutsch Dengeki Sakusen, Super Daisenryaku, The Hybrid Front, Ninja Burai Densetsu, Bahamut Senki, etc. all featuring battery backup saves.  Also, compare a Sega developed sports title like Greatest Heavyweights to an arcade ported boxing game like Punch-Out!!  Greatest Heavyweights featured a Create-a-Fighter, a Career Mode (featuring 30 fighters to box until you win the title followed by 8 title defenses against real life legendary boxers), and a battery back-up.  These are the reasons I wouldn't label the Genesis/Mega Drive as strictly an arcade system.



RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It's funny you think the infrared pointer is the most defining feature of the Wii remote.  What matters most is how it is used most commonly, especially in the most popular games.  Also, what is the point of this argument?  Do you personally believe that Wii is not an arcade machine now, or are you just nitpicking on stuff that you don't really believe in the first place?

3D is definitely an aspect of PC gaming.  Myst, DOOM, Wing Commander, etc... were all big 3D franchises in the early 90s.  At the same time the arcades had Virtua Fighter and that was about it.  The big 90's arcade games were 2D fighting games.  

The mistake you make is that you think arcade gaming is defined by consoles.  It isn't.  Arcade gaming is defined by the games that were in the arcades.

I don't think the infrared pointer is the most defining feature of the Wii-Remote, but it's obviously a prominent one given its usage in Wii Play which contains modern versions of classics like Pong and Duck Hunt. The point is that if you believe touchscreen controls shift something towards the PC side, then you must also believe that pointer controls shift something to the PC side. However, you firmly put the Wii in the Arcade Evolution column while the DS sits in Balance.

My stance on this matter is that mouse controls for PC games were something inspired by the simplicity and accessibility of arcade games, therefore any mouse-like controls do not constitute the original PC DNA, but rather are an alternate form of arcade DNA. That's why I wouldn't shift either one of the DS or Wii towards the PC side because of touchscreen and pointer, respectively. After all, the major DS and Wii games that use these controls are easy to pick up and play and suited for short play sessions which is clearly the arcade DNA.

PCs were more powerful than consoles and 3D graphics are clearly a matter of processing power. PCs getting there first doesn't mean that 3D graphics are an inherent trait of PC gaming. By the way, Myst used prerendered backgrounds while Doom used sprites for its enemies; Wing Commander banked on its FMVs to sell itself and also used spritework for its graphics, so when you call games that aren't 3D actual 3D franchises, then that means you must accept the SNES's Mode 7 trickery as 3D too. Super Mario Kart and F-Zero come to mind as popular titles, then there was also the Super FX chip-powered Star Fox which had polygon graphics, so actual 3D. Looking at Sega consoles and by extension at the arcades, the racing genre grew in popularity. Virtua Racing, Daytona USA and Sega Rally from Sega, Ridge Racer from Namco. The majority of the 1990s in the arcades was defined by 3D games (first and foremost racing and fighting) as shoot'em ups and 2D fighting games continually declined in popularity.

So yeah, while consoles lagged behind PCs in processing power and therefore didn't feature 3D graphics as commonly as PC games, the motherboards in arcade cabinets were different beasts and demonstrated that 3D graphics aren't a defining trait of either arcade or PC gaming, but merely a matter of processing power.

Here it is.  This sentence from the quote above is the actual core of our argument:

"My stance on this matter is that mouse controls for PC games were something inspired by the simplicity and accessibility of arcade games, therefore any mouse-like controls do not constitute the original PC DNA, but rather are an alternate form of arcade DNA."

When you use the words "arcade" and "PC" that is not actually what you mean.  Instead when you say "arcade" you actually mean "simplicity and accessibility".  When you say PC, you actually mean the opposite, "complexity and inaccessibility".  Your original table is actually a 5-point scale for accessibility.  You would actually make your points a lot more clearly if you relabeled it as a 5-point scale for accessibility.  I actually think if you labeled it that way, then I would agree with almost all of the ways you categorized the consoles.  (We would still disagree about the Switch, but that is besides the point.)  If you are saying that the console market has gotten less accessible over time, then I would agree.  I would also agree that a more accessible console tends to bring in new customers, or at the very least, it prevents repelling customers.

However, I am using the word "arcade" to mean "this actually was in the arcade" and PC means "this actually was on the PC".  If you ask any random person on the street, almost all of them will associate the mouse with the PC and not the arcade.  The mouse was also not inspired by the arcade.  It was developed by Xerox.  It wasn't inspired by arcade gaming, because Xerox isn't even a gaming company, much less an arcade gaming company.  Apple stole the idea from Xerox, and then Microsoft stole the idea from Apple.  The mouse then lead to the mass cultural acceptance of home computers via the Mac and Windows.  The reality is that it doesn't get more PC than the mouse.

In short, your table is confusing.  Just change the labeling to a 5 point accessibility scale and it becomes a lot more clear.



Mandalore76 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I put the Genesis in column 1 to highlight that it was much more of an arcade console than the SNES. (And really for every generation Sega is more on the arcade side than Nintendo is.)  There were lots of arcade ports on the Genesis including quite a few by Sega.  I struggle to think of one arcade port on the SNES that was developed by Nintendo.  

On the other hand, you have a point in that Genesis is not a Neo Geo either.  Sega was making other types of games too like RPGs.  What it didn't really do so much was make "arcade evolution" games.  Either they made an arcade game or they made an RPG.  Meanwhile Super Mario World was an action platformer with an overworld and save files.  Sega wasn't really making too many games like this, "arcade evolution", but that was the focus for Nintendo.

Once Nintendo was able to get their arcade games directly into people's homes, their arcade division became more about porting Nintendo arcade type games from NES/SNES to coin-op rather than developing them the other way around.  See their VS. and Play Choice 10 coin-ops, Dr. Mario, F-Zero, etc.  Sega was more rooted in developing both coin-ops and home console games.  Sega has actively developed coin-ops from 1966 to today while their home console division came and went in less than 20 years (SG-1000 released in 1983 to the discontinuation of the Dreamcast in 2001).  But, that's not to say they didn't evolve their home console games of the time with the changing hardware.  Sonic 3 didn't have an overworld, but it did have save files.  Outside of platformers and previously mentioned RPG's, Sega developed strategy simulation games like Advanced Daisenryaku: Deutsch Dengeki Sakusen, Super Daisenryaku, The Hybrid Front, Ninja Burai Densetsu, Bahamut Senki, etc. all featuring battery backup saves.  Also, compare a Sega developed sports title like Greatest Heavyweights to an arcade ported boxing game like Punch-Out!!  Greatest Heavyweights featured a Create-a-Fighter, a Career Mode (featuring 30 fighters to box until you win the title followed by 8 title defenses against real life legendary boxers), and a battery back-up.  These are the reasons I wouldn't label the Genesis/Mega Drive as strictly an arcade system.

Our views on this are not that different.  Sega definitely made a lot of great games for the home over the years.  However, they never abandoned pure arcade gaming.  The Genesis, especially, was probably when their arcade games were at their peak.  (Not to mention third party arcade games on the Genesis like Mortal Kombat, Street Fighter, etc...).

Nintendo basically did abandon arcade gaming in the middle of the NES/Famicom era.  This was about the time that they developed the Famicom Disk System (FDS), which featured games like Zelda 1 and Metroid 1.  After a while, they stopped supporting the FDS, but it changed their game design philosophy forever.  They stopped making pure arcade games after that.  Even Nintendo made games that could be ported from SNES to an arcade are fairly uncommon.

So, where to place the Genesis?  I put it in a pure arcade column to highlight that it was much more of a pure arcade machine than the SNES was.  If a person in the early 90s wanted a console for arcade gaming I would recommend the Genesis.  I would even recommend the Genesis over the Neo Geo, because Sega made better arcade games than SNK did.  The Atari 2600 didn't only have arcade games, but it has more of an arcade focus than the Genesis.  The NES actually had a lot arcade games, but the most memorable NES games tend to be from Zelda 1 and later rather than before Zelda 1, so it barely makes it into the arcade evolution column.  I'd put the Genesis just slightly more arcade than the NES.  Maybe it belongs in column 1.5 rather than column 1 or column 2?  But I chose column 1, because it's arcade focus is significant compared to the SNES.  In fact, every Sega console has more of an arcade focus compared to its Nintendo counterpart, because Sega never really left the arcades, while Nintendo left the arcades in the middle of the NES era.



This is an interesting way to look at the console market. I really disagree with the Wii U though. It's more in the balance category. The Wii U was a pain in the ass to develop games for (that hurts the PC evolution argument), and had an off-screen tablet included.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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What we know is that full body motion control isn't suited to Switch Lite or the hybrid in handheld mode.

Switch hybrid sold 3m in Japan in the same timeframe that RFA sold 1.5m. Either half of those Switch hybrid sales were due to RFA or some/most of the cazulz were already there. We can also safely assume that there are cazulz that aren't interested in RFA.

RFA currently has a 16% attach ratio to the hybrid Switch in Japan despite stock issues, higher price (compared to Wii-Wii Fit) and apparent lack of console accessibility.

ARMS was above 2m and 1,2 Switch was above 3m before RFA released so Nintendo fans have probably spent as much money on 12S and ARMS as they did on Wii Play and Wii Boxing.

Ubisoft didn't bother with Just Dance 2020 on Wii-U but did make it their last game for Wii most likely because it took 10years for a system to come along that could eat into the Wii versions sales.

Switch+RFA was hitting Ebay prices not seen since Wii+Wii Fit during the pre-pandemic holidays.

Seems ludicrous to credit FIFA, Skyrim and Witcher fans when ARMS, 12S, 51CHG and RFA easily outsell them and there are still 130m DS and 75m Wii owners out there who didn't buy Brain Training or Wii Fit.

I'm not saying the uber-cazul Just Dance, Wii Fit, Mario Kart wheel users are responsible for Switch's success just that a significant portion of them are back buying their first system since Wii.
The main driver of Switch sales is the returning Nintendo casual-core/lapsed gamer crowd, some of whom were uber-cazulz during the Wii/DS days but have since crossed the bridge Nintendo built for them.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:

What we know is that full body motion control isn't suited to Switch Lite or the hybrid in handheld mode.

Switch hybrid sold 3m in Japan in the same timeframe that RFA sold 1.5m. Either half of those Switch hybrid sales were due to RFA or some/most of the cazulz were already there. We can also safely assume that there are cazulz that aren't interested in RFA.

RFA currently has a 16% attach ratio to the hybrid Switch in Japan despite stock issues, higher price (compared to Wii-Wii Fit) and apparent lack of console accessibility.

ARMS was above 2m and 1,2 Switch was above 3m before RFA released so Nintendo fans have probably spent as much money on 12S and ARMS as they did on Wii Play and Wii Boxing.

Ubisoft didn't bother with Just Dance 2020 on Wii-U but did make it their last game for Wii most likely because it took 10years for a system to come along that could eat into the Wii versions sales.

Switch+RFA was hitting Ebay prices not seen since Wii+Wii Fit during the pre-pandemic holidays.

Seems ludicrous to credit FIFA, Skyrim and Witcher fans when ARMS, 12S, 51CHG and RFA easily outsell them and there are still 130m DS and 75m Wii owners out there who didn't buy Brain Training or Wii Fit.

I'm not saying the uber-cazul Just Dance, Wii Fit, Mario Kart wheel users are responsible for Switch's success just that a significant portion of them are back buying their first system since Wii.
The main driver of Switch sales is the returning Nintendo casual-core/lapsed gamer crowd, some of whom were uber-cazulz during the Wii/DS days but have since crossed the bridge Nintendo built for them.

Wii Play sold 28 million copies.  But I think that even when people mention the fact that it came bundled with a Wiimote, it often gets forgotten that there was a huge Wiimote shortage at the time.  Consequently, a great many people bought Wii Play solely to add an additional Wiimote to their Wii for all the other couch multiplayer games they already had.  I was one of those people.  I remember struggling to find any game stores in my area that had individual Wiimotes in stock at the time, and having to buy Wii Play just to get an additional controller into my living room.  I remember playing through Wii Play with friends just once and then never having the desire to pop it in again.  It did not have the fun and addictive quality of Wii Sports.  I also remember a video game magazine at the time, that covered top selling games of the month in each issue, being very noticeably irked at having to include Wii Play in the Top 10 for as many consecutive weeks as it did.