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JWeinCom on 01 April 2021
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
RolStoppable said:

It's not about declaring one better over the other, it's about recognizing differences and that's the basis for the placements of consoles in the table.

Said placement then provides the answer why certain constellations don't cut into each other's sales like most others did, particularly in those cases where there is a horizontal gap (one empty cell or more) within a given generation. These situations create an additive scenario rather than a zero-sum game for total console sales, because the two sides arcade and PC have a relationship of supplementing each other rather than one being able to replace the other.

As I said, it's a condensed version. A more elaborate version would have more columns and list more consoles, including handhelds. If I had used more columns here, the formating wouldn't have worked anymore because there's only so much space that can be displayed flawlessly.

Regardless, one takeaway is that Nintendo will remain very successful if they stay on their path because neither Sony or Microsoft are interested in moving in that direction. Another takeaway is that neither Sony or Microsoft will find success on their current path in Japan because the country has never warmed up to PC gaming.

Lastly, a more personal response to you because apparently you've made a bet with curl-6 that the PS5 won't sell more than 80m units. This thread explains why Switch isn't going to cut into PS5 sales to this degree. While Switch can and will hurt the PS5 in Japan due to the unique circumstances of the country, the same thing cannot be replicated on a global scale. Switch serves the traditional console market while the PS5 is the leader in playing PC-style games on console, so in most of the world that will result in both consoles being successful with no ifs or buts. It would have to be Microsoft who has to limit PS5 sales by a large degree to keep the PS5 under 80m lifetime, but through now four generations Microsoft hasn't shown an ability to solve their ongoing problems, so their potential to damage Sony isn't particularly big. In other words, curl-6 has it very easy.

Oh, I see.  You think the Switch is like the Wii.  You think it is attracting a new crowd of people or maybe bringing back the old Wii crowd.  That is why you are defining "arcade" in terms of accessibility.  

The problem with this reasoning is that the Wii was a whole lot more accessible than the Switch is.  The Switch has no Wii Sports type of game.  If you are thinking "arcade" means accessible, then the Switch needs a mega seller that is as easy to learn as Wii Sports.  It doesn't have this.  You shouldn't put the Wii and the Switch in the same vertical column on your table, because their library of games is pretty different.

Switch is not successful because of extreme accessibility.  Switch is successful, because it is a handheld system.  Nintendo has never been defeated in the handheld space.  They are leveraging their extreme success in the handheld market and bringing it into the home market as well.  That is why the Switch is successful.  It is not about extreme accessibility.

The "arcade gameplay" on the Switch is actually pretty similar to the "arcade gameplay" on the N64 and Gamecube.  Switch's big arcade-like games are Mario Kart, Smash Bros and Mario Party.  You could find these same types of games on the N64 and Gamecube.  You could also find these types of games on the 3DS.  They sell better on the 3DS.  Now they are selling well on the Switch.  That's because the Switch is bringing in all of the handheld gamers and then bringing in some home console gamers too.  It's not bringing in the Wii crowd in big numbers.  It's merging the home and handheld markets.

I think you are too narrowly defining the Wii crowd.

Yes Wii Sports was the biggest seller, but NSMB, Mario Kart, Smash and others also sold gangbusters. People who bought those titles were very much in the Wii crowd.

And, the Wii launched in 2006. So we have to think about where the Wii crowd has gone.

The 6 year old kid who picked up a Wii and Mario Kart in 2009 is now headed to college looking for a multiplayer machine. The 18 year old kid who bought Wii Sports at launch to play drinking games college (I knew a few) is now in their early 30's with kids who are getting to gaming age. The 12 year old kid who got a Wii in 2008 is now in their mid 20s, and old enough to feel nostalgic.

The Wii crowd was more than just Wii Sports. And, they are now 10-15 years older than they were when they first got the Wii. So, you don't necessarily have to appeal to them in the exact same way. 

Also, there is a huge overlap between the Wii and DS market, to the point where it would be hard to say which audience is making the Wii a success. 

All that being said, I think putting the Switch in the "arcade evolution" category or claiming its success is based on accessibility or however you like to term it is mistaken.

I think the main reason for Switch's success is its versatility both in terms of form and gameplay. If you want a handheld to play on the train, you got it. If you want something to play while you're sitting on the couch with your significant other and they're watching a show that you really don't care for, you got it. If you want a multiplayer machine to play drinking games with, you got it. 

In terms of games if you want a casual pick up and play game, you got those (1-2 Switch, Animal Crossing, Clubhouse Games, Super Mario Party, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, NSMB/3D World). You want competitive multiplayer you got that (Smash, Splatoon, ARMS, Pokken). You want motion controlled games, they're there (Super Mario Party, 1-2 Switch, Mario Tennis, Ring Fit, ARMS). You want more traditional but still kid/casual friendly games, yup (Pokemon Let's Go/Sword Shield, Luigi's Mansion, Marios, Kirby). You want more "hardcore" titles, those are there too (Xenoblade 2, Monster Hunter, BOTW, Bravely Default 2, Dead Cells, Hades, Astral Chain, Witcher, Doom). Primarily driven by Nintendo's offerings, but major third parties and indies help pick up the slack.

The Switch's success kind of had me stumped for a while, because it doesn't seem amazing in any one area. Not as good as a pure casual machine as the DS or Wii, not as good for "hardcore" gamers as the PS4/XBone, not as good as a handheld as the 3DS, etc. But whatever your gaming habits are (on the go, on TV, off TV) and whatever kind of games you like, it offers a good enough experience.

To that end, pointing to the Switch's success as coming from the Wii crowd or the handheld audience or whatever is too narrow. It's drawing from pretty much all across the spectrum. Which is pretty much what Nintendo's always wanted to do, this is just their (potentially) most successful attempt yet.