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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Switch sell in Japan?


How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

20-24M 2 3.08%
24-26M 1 1.54%
26-28M 4 6.15%
28-30M 10 15.38%
30-32M 17 26.15%
32-34M 19 29.23%
34-36M 6 9.23%
36M+ 6 9.23%

Nothing like this. Japan is a very tiny country. To put it into perspective, it’s smaller than the state of Montana. Do you think Montana will buy up tens of millions of Switches?
But Switch is doing very well!
My estimates are going to be a generous... one MILLION units.

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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30 Million.

A bit late to the party, but given the upbeat Famitsu leaks this week I though I'd give my predictions here as well:

% Change 3,407,158 3,407,158
2.2% 3,482,388 6,889,546
29.0% 4,493,903 11,383,449
39.5% 6,268,964 17,652,413
14.0% 7,147,587 24,800,000
-27.2% 5,200,000 30,000,000
-32.7% 3,500,000 33,500,000
-48.6% 1,800,000 35,300,000
-72.2% 500,000 35,800,000
-65.0% 175,000 35,975,000
-85.7% 25,000 36,000,000

Here are my predictions for this year as well:

563,268 18,215,681
350,447 18,566,128
520,138 19,086,266
596,493 19,682,759
450,000 20,100,000
500,000 20,600,000
600,000 21,200,000
400,000 21,600,000
400,000 22,000,000
700,000 22,700,000
850,000 23,600,000
1,250,000 24,800,000

Hopefully beating the 3DS this year is an attainable goal, although at the current sales pace it very well might be. In any case, expect the Switch Pro and Pokemon, as well as adequate shipments this fall to be the deciding factor in whether or not 7 million pace can be achieved.

I already made a thread but I’m sticking with 40mil

Around 37 million.

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I say it will beat the DS and reach ~35M

Lots of people suspect it will become the top seller of all time in Japan.
Crazy what 14 months worth of sales can do to change peoples mind!

tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

For sure over 30. Probably 33 to 35 million.

It had 17.34 million end of 2020 according to famitsu charts.
2021 6 mil = 23.34mil
2022 4.5mil = 27.84mil
2023 3mil = 30.84mil
2024 2mil = 32.84
2025 and beyond 1+ mil = 34 million

brute said:

Lots of people suspect it will become the top seller of all time in Japan.
Crazy what 14 months worth of sales can do to change peoples mind!

I figured it could do DS numbers prior but I been deadest on 40mil since dec.

people need to realize NSW longevity and trajectory for its sales. NSW is at 20.04mil as of March. It could be 27-28mil (this is optimistic) by this time next year.

but let’s play it safe. Slighlty down FY and make it 6mil by end of FY22. 26mil surpassing 3DS. Drop it YoY for 4 years afterward by 40-45% each time lmao.... You get this

FY22: 6000k

FY23: 3600k -40% (splat3/Project Triangle/MP4/etc)

FY24: 1980k -45%

FY25: 1200k -40%  (NSW2 comes out which I doubt)

FY26+ 600k -50% 

total: 33.38mil

This EXAMPLE should open  people’s eye


Norion said:

I'll go with 30-32 million. It'll reach 22-23 this year, probably 26-27 by the end of 2022, probably 29-30 by the end of 2023 and then sales will slow a lot due to saturation so it won't sell that much in 2024 especially since the Switch 2 will likely come out that year and since that should be backwards compatible I expect the Switch to have low post successor sales in Japan like the DS so it'll likely stop close to the sales of that and the Gameboy. I won't be surprised if it does somewhat better than that though and overtakes the DS and the fact it has a shot of doing that is extremely impressive considering that Japan's population and most importantly young population has declined a tad in the past 10-15 years so even if it doesn't beat the DS in total sales it'll likely still beat it in sales per capita especially among young people which will still be a big achievement.

The thing is that this "aging" population has grown up as gamers. 20 years ago 30+ year old individuals grew up in a much different gaming era than what some 30+ year old did today. 50 years ago gaming was Arcades. NES era has completely changed gaming and those individuals are now the major purchasing power going forward. Home and handheld consoles aren't being bought solely for kids anymore, they are being bought by adults for themselves and for kids. I hope this makes sense.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 May 2021

Nintendo with the Switch: