What do ya'll think?
I'm thinking 30-31Million
How many units will Switch sell in Japan? | |||
20-24M | 2 | 3.08% | |
24-26M | 1 | 1.54% | |
26-28M | 4 | 6.15% | |
28-30M | 10 | 15.38% | |
30-32M | 17 | 26.15% | |
32-34M | 19 | 29.23% | |
34-36M | 6 | 9.23% | |
36M+ | 6 | 9.23% | |
Total: | 65 |
I feel like it would just barely eek out past the DS and GB, both sitting at 32 and something mil
Let's go crazy, as Prince once sung, and say 32-34 million.
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At the very worst the Switch will sell 28M in Japan, but probably over 30.
Since I expect this to be another ~6 million year and I don't expect it to completely plummet like a rock afterwards either, I think it has a real shot at matching or beating the DS when all is said and done. So 32-34 mil is my honest guess at this point.
Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned
2023 OpenCritic Prediction Leagues:
34-36m
Switch is going to adopt the markets from 3DS, Vita, Wii U and part of PS4.
I'll go with 30-32 million. It'll reach 22-23 this year, probably 26-27 by the end of 2022, probably 29-30 by the end of 2023 and then sales will slow a lot due to saturation so it won't sell that much in 2024 especially since the Switch 2 will likely come out that year and since that should be backwards compatible I expect the Switch to have low post successor sales in Japan like the DS so it'll likely stop close to the sales of that and the Gameboy. I won't be surprised if it does somewhat better than that though and overtakes the DS and the fact it has a shot of doing that is extremely impressive considering that Japan's population and most importantly young population has declined a tad in the past 10-15 years so even if it doesn't beat the DS in total sales it'll likely still beat it in sales per capita especially among young people which will still be a big achievement.
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