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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

 

How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

20-24M 2 3.08%
 
24-26M 1 1.54%
 
26-28M 4 6.15%
 
28-30M 10 15.38%
 
30-32M 17 26.15%
 
32-34M 19 29.23%
 
34-36M 6 9.23%
 
36M+ 6 9.23%
 
Total:65
tbone51 on 05 February 2021
Farsala said:

Gut feeling says 28.5m.

A bit of info for you, NSW is at 18.8mil shipped in japan. It did about 6.45mil last year, and if it does 6.39mil it will have shipped the same amount 3ds did lifetime.

25.4mil by years end is a possibility (a bit on the optimistic side sure) and if it does do that with being on the market for less than 5years vs 3ds did in 7 and half years coming off of a peak year, 28.5mil would be about the floor for end of 2022 alone ;)



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tbone51 on 05 February 2021

For me safe bet is 30mil at this point and I know 33mil is a lot as well as beating DS but I’ll go with 37mil for lols



badskywalker on 05 February 2021

Weird, I just asked something similiar in the famistu sales yesterday. I'll go with 29.5, just to be on the safe side.



Metallox on 05 February 2021

It will sell a lot, I'm sure of that. Also, do what you love, guys.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

Link_Nines.XBC on 05 February 2021

I'd say around 32 million.



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mk7sx on 05 February 2021

I voted for >37M as well.

I think they will launch an Ampere based model this year that will be positioned as a revision/Pro, but is essentially a 2021 spec-ed successor.  I think they intend for this model to hold the fort till 2025, at which point they will do the same and position that model as a Switch 2.  Current sales + 2021 revision sales will exceed 37M.  Global target is 175-200M range for the same.

NSW Japan sales curve was already different than 3DS and NDS pre-pandemic.  Now I expect 3DS to be matched/surpassed by end of CY 2021 with more momentum than either of the old systems had at this point in the cycle (and higher raw sales to boot).

Quick and rough forecast in green (quarterly for the next 5 quarters, then FY predictions afterwards).  Expecting new model to launch around Sep 2021.



Farsala on 05 February 2021
tbone51 said:
Farsala said:

Gut feeling says 28.5m.

A bit of info for you, NSW is at 18.8mil shipped in japan. It did about 6.45mil last year, and if it does 6.39mil it will have shipped the same amount 3ds did lifetime.

25.4mil by years end is a possibility (a bit on the optimistic side sure) and if it does do that with being on the market for less than 5years vs 3ds did in 7 and half years coming off of a peak year, 28.5mil would be about the floor for end of 2022 alone ;)

I am ever the pessimist. It only just passed the 3DS launch aligned. Of course 28.5m will be far ahead of the 3DS LTD, an entire 4m. 37m is the other side, optimism. 12.5m ahead of the 3DS.



tbone51 on 05 February 2021
Farsala said:
tbone51 said:

A bit of info for you, NSW is at 18.8mil shipped in japan. It did about 6.45mil last year, and if it does 6.39mil it will have shipped the same amount 3ds did lifetime.

25.4mil by years end is a possibility (a bit on the optimistic side sure) and if it does do that with being on the market for less than 5years vs 3ds did in 7 and half years coming off of a peak year, 28.5mil would be about the floor for end of 2022 alone ;)

I am ever the pessimist. It only just passed the 3DS launch aligned. Of course 28.5m will be far ahead of the 3DS LTD, an entire 4m. 37m is the other side, optimism. 12.5m ahead of the 3DS.

Your right it just surpassed the 3ds aligned. And 3ds in Y5/Y6/Y7 sold 2.1mil/1.9mil/1.9mil each meanwhile NSW is nowhere near dropping that low yearly ? 



Farsala on 06 February 2021
tbone51 said:
Farsala said:

I am ever the pessimist. It only just passed the 3DS launch aligned. Of course 28.5m will be far ahead of the 3DS LTD, an entire 4m. 37m is the other side, optimism. 12.5m ahead of the 3DS.

Your right it just surpassed the 3ds aligned. And 3ds in Y5/Y6/Y7 sold 2.1mil/1.9mil/1.9mil each meanwhile NSW is nowhere near dropping that low yearly 😉 

Which is why I give it the extra 4m. Switch will have a strong Y5 for sure.



Jumpin on 06 February 2021

Nothing like this. Japan is a very tiny country. To put it into perspective, it’s smaller than the state of Montana. Do you think Montana will buy up tens of millions of Switches?
But Switch is doing very well!
My estimates are going to be a generous... one MILLION units.



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