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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Switch sell in Japan?


How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

20-24M 2 3.08%
24-26M 1 1.54%
26-28M 4 6.15%
28-30M 10 15.38%
30-32M 17 26.15%
32-34M 19 29.23%
34-36M 6 9.23%
36M+ 6 9.23%

Maybe 30 mil?

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scottslater said:
Norion said:

I'll go with 30-32 million. It'll reach 22-23 this year, probably 26-27 by the end of 2022, probably 29-30 by the end of 2023 and then sales will slow a lot due to saturation so it won't sell that much in 2024 especially since the Switch 2 will likely come out that year and since that should be backwards compatible I expect the Switch to have low post successor sales in Japan like the DS so it'll likely stop close to the sales of that and the Gameboy. I won't be surprised if it does somewhat better than that though and overtakes the DS and the fact it has a shot of doing that is extremely impressive considering that Japan's population and most importantly young population has declined a tad in the past 10-15 years so even if it doesn't beat the DS in total sales it'll likely still beat it in sales per capita especially among young people which will still be a big achievement.

The thing is that this "aging" population has grown up as gamers. 20 years ago 30+ year old individuals grew up in a much different gaming era than what some 30+ year old did today. 50 years ago gaming was Arcades. NES era has completely changed gaming and those individuals are now the major purchasing power going forward. Home and handheld consoles aren't being bought solely for kids anymore, they are being bought by adults for themselves and for kids. I hope this makes sense.

There's validity to what you're saying but most people aged 50+ didn't grow up as gamers so the demographics of those who buy game consoles for themselves still skews young though is increasing in age so I do think if the Switch sells about the same as the DS it'll be a more impressive feat for the former.