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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

 

How many units will Switch sell in Japan?

20-24M 2 3.08%
 
24-26M 1 1.54%
 
26-28M 4 6.15%
 
28-30M 10 15.38%
 
30-32M 17 26.15%
 
32-34M 19 29.23%
 
34-36M 6 9.23%
 
36M+ 6 9.23%
 
Total:65
tbone51 said:
brute said:

Lots of people suspect it will become the top seller of all time in Japan.
Crazy what 14 months worth of sales can do to change peoples mind!

I figured it could do DS numbers prior but I been deadest on 40mil since dec.

people need to realize NSW longevity and trajectory for its sales. NSW is at 20.04mil as of March. It could be 27-28mil (this is optimistic) by this time next year.

but let’s play it safe. Slighlty down FY and make it 6mil by end of FY22. 26mil surpassing 3DS. Drop it YoY for 4 years afterward by 40-45% each time lmao.... You get this

FY22: 6000k

FY23: 3600k -40% (splat3/Project Triangle/MP4/etc)

FY24: 1980k -45%

FY25: 1200k -40%  (NSW2 comes out which I doubt)

FY26+ 600k -50% 

total: 33.38mil

This EXAMPLE should open  people’s eye



.....

I agree. At this point I'd give it a 70/30 chance to outsell DS whereas prior to Animal Crossing I was at 30/70.



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tbone51 said:
brute said:

Lots of people suspect it will become the top seller of all time in Japan.
Crazy what 14 months worth of sales can do to change peoples mind!

I figured it could do DS numbers prior but I been deadest on 40mil since dec.

people need to realize NSW longevity and trajectory for its sales. NSW is at 20.04mil as of March. It could be 27-28mil (this is optimistic) by this time next year.

but let’s play it safe. Slighlty down FY and make it 6mil by end of FY22. 26mil surpassing 3DS. Drop it YoY for 4 years afterward by 40-45% each time lmao.... You get this

FY22: 6000k

FY23: 3600k -40% (splat3/Project Triangle/MP4/etc)

FY24: 1980k -45%

FY25: 1200k -40%  (NSW2 comes out which I doubt)

FY26+ 600k -50% 

total: 33.38mil

This EXAMPLE should open  people’s eye

Here's what I think is more likely:

FY22: 6500K

FY23: 4550k -30%

FY24: 2730k -40%

FY25: 1638k -40%

FY26: 819k -50% (NSW 2 release)

FY27+: 400k

36.637mil

So yeah, I'm going with 36mil.



Maybe 30 mil?



scottslater said:
Norion said:

I'll go with 30-32 million. It'll reach 22-23 this year, probably 26-27 by the end of 2022, probably 29-30 by the end of 2023 and then sales will slow a lot due to saturation so it won't sell that much in 2024 especially since the Switch 2 will likely come out that year and since that should be backwards compatible I expect the Switch to have low post successor sales in Japan like the DS so it'll likely stop close to the sales of that and the Gameboy. I won't be surprised if it does somewhat better than that though and overtakes the DS and the fact it has a shot of doing that is extremely impressive considering that Japan's population and most importantly young population has declined a tad in the past 10-15 years so even if it doesn't beat the DS in total sales it'll likely still beat it in sales per capita especially among young people which will still be a big achievement.

The thing is that this "aging" population has grown up as gamers. 20 years ago 30+ year old individuals grew up in a much different gaming era than what some 30+ year old did today. 50 years ago gaming was Arcades. NES era has completely changed gaming and those individuals are now the major purchasing power going forward. Home and handheld consoles aren't being bought solely for kids anymore, they are being bought by adults for themselves and for kids. I hope this makes sense.

There's validity to what you're saying but most people aged 50+ didn't grow up as gamers so the demographics of those who buy game consoles for themselves still skews young though is increasing in age so I do think if the Switch sells about the same as the DS it'll be a more impressive feat for the former.