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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Dec 20-26 - Switch Outsells Lifetime 3DS Sales

SilenceDeadly said:
PAOerfulone said:

I would not say "with very very ease."

It would take the Switch sales really dropping like a rock, along with the PS5 skyrocketing these next two years for it to become the market leader by 2022.

Assuming the Switch takes a natural decline, I could see it selling 23-25 million units in 2021; Then maybe another 20-22 million units in 2022. 

The PS5 will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-17 million in 2021; And then rise from there to 18-20 million units in 2022. So there's a good chance that the Switch will still be the market leader in 2022, into the early parts of 2023, barring a total collapse, which I just don't see happening.

Plus, consider that the PS4's peak year was just ~20 million in 2017, which was its 4th full year on the market. The PS5's 4th full year on the market would be 2024, and if it has a similar trajectory to the PS4, then it wouldn't truly become the undisputed market leader until that year.

The Switch could be the top dog for a very long time. At least for the next 2 years; Then by 2023, they'll be neck and neck, going back and forth as the PS5 is truly starting to hit its stride while the Switch is on its way out. But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on the PS5 taking that top spot by 2022.

You´re absolutely right in your whole post but you´re missing 1 thing:

- Ps5 will demolish Ps4 performance. 

PS4 had an originally always online, Kinect focused, no/weak Gamepass competitor in Xbox One and the Wii U was tanking as well. So basically from day 1 it was seem as the flagship console for last gen, and consumers followed the bandwagon.

With Switch dominating and Gamepass getting more and more subscribers on both console and PC, I really can't see how PS5 will sell more than PS4. And that isn't even taking into consideration how many dozens of major games PS5 won't get that MS will because of acquisitions. Even if whatever next game they each makes still goes multiplatform, I doubt any beyond that will except for a couple.

Initial sales mean nothing as those are basically just fanboys who would buy their respective company's device no matter what (like I am with Nintendo).



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SilenceDeadly said:
PAOerfulone said:

I would not say "with very very ease."

It would take the Switch sales really dropping like a rock, along with the PS5 skyrocketing these next two years for it to become the market leader by 2022.

Assuming the Switch takes a natural decline, I could see it selling 23-25 million units in 2021; Then maybe another 20-22 million units in 2022. 

The PS5 will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-17 million in 2021; And then rise from there to 18-20 million units in 2022. So there's a good chance that the Switch will still be the market leader in 2022, into the early parts of 2023, barring a total collapse, which I just don't see happening.

Plus, consider that the PS4's peak year was just ~20 million in 2017, which was its 4th full year on the market. The PS5's 4th full year on the market would be 2024, and if it has a similar trajectory to the PS4, then it wouldn't truly become the undisputed market leader until that year.

The Switch could be the top dog for a very long time. At least for the next 2 years; Then by 2023, they'll be neck and neck, going back and forth as the PS5 is truly starting to hit its stride while the Switch is on its way out. But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on the PS5 taking that top spot by 2022.

You´re absolutely right in your whole post but you´re missing 1 thing:

- Ps5 will demolish Ps4 performance. 

How? Where will it outdo PS4? Not in Japan, that's for sure. Sony and MS have been sharing approx. 170-190m in sales for three generations now, so for PS5 to "demolish" PS4, it would need XBSX to perform even worse than XBO AND for Sony to expand the market by a lot.



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PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch Sales Comparison Charts Through December 26

Here we see data representing the global sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the five current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4, and Xbox One) and two legacy platforms (Nintendo 3DS and PlayStation Vita) over comparable periods for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020.  Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2017 – (Week ending January 7 to December 30)

2018 – (Week ending January 6 to December 29)

2019 – (Week ending January 5 to December 28)

2020 – (Week ending January 4 to December 26)

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

"Year to date" sales for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2020 versus 2019 and 2020 versus 2018 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Microsoft

  • Xbox One – Down Year-on-Year 1,924,451 (-38.2%)
  • Xbox Series X|S – n/a

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch - Up Year-on-Year 8,273,470 (42.9%)
  • Nintendo 3DS – Down Year-on-Year 1,091,412 (-70.4%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 4 – Down Year-on-Year 5,383,612 (-37.7%)
  • PlayStation 5 – n/a


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

SilenceDeadly said:

Momentum will slow down in 2021 and 2022 for sure

Why ?



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I thought it was weird that the Switch total was lower this week.  I looked at the previous 4 weeks for reference.

2020 Switch sales (for weeks listed)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania Global
week 49          549,686          350,474          284,978          42,133          1,275,788
week 50           621,997          358,182          366,400          49,520          1,396,099
week 51          677,811          416,717          394,266          57,642          1,546,436
week 52          467,036          266,197          388,184          38,577          1,159,994
WoW change -31% -36% -2% -33% -25%

Sales this week are down by about 1/3 WoW in every region except Asia.  Also this is the lowest holiday week for each region other than Asia.  I suspect that there are probably shortages in a lot of areas, especially for the base model which seems to be the model that is by far the most popular.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 08 January 2021

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Holy shit less than 700'000 units sold for PS4 + PS5 +XB1 +XBX/S combined for Christmas week, these numbers are abysmal.

I just checked and this is the first time ever, according to vgchartz, that the Playstation AND Xbox brand together fail to sell at least 1 million+ units in this big holiday week.



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Kjartan said:

Holy shit less than 700'000 units sold for PS4 + PS5 +XB1 +XBX/S combined for Christmas week, these numbers are abysmal.

I just checked and this is the first time ever, according to vgchartz, that the Playstation AND Xbox brand together fail to sell at least 1 million+ units in this big holiday week.

Is the dedicated home console market doomed?



Damn I don't post much here but people still want in denial that Ps5 will crush anything amuse me, denial is strong. Gonna be a rough years for you all, also rough years for Nintendo haters.

Stay safe & don't panic to much once Ps5 starts the absolute domination in 2022.



Dulfite said:
Kjartan said:

Holy shit less than 700'000 units sold for PS4 + PS5 +XB1 +XBX/S combined for Christmas week, these numbers are abysmal.

I just checked and this is the first time ever, according to vgchartz, that the Playstation AND Xbox brand together fail to sell at least 1 million+ units in this big holiday week.

Is the dedicated home console market doomed?

Maybe what's happened in Japan foretold what will happen everywhere else in the world. Switch will gobble up everything. None will be spared. One Switch to rule them all.



Kjartan said:

Holy shit less than 700'000 units sold for PS4 + PS5 +XB1 +XBX/S combined for Christmas week, these numbers are abysmal.

I just checked and this is the first time ever, according to vgchartz, that the Playstation AND Xbox brand together fail to sell at least 1 million+ units in this big holiday week.

Hi @Kjartan This was an interesting fact that motivated me to check, Some years it is tough to determine what is the equivalent for this week, I did it with all the weeks that included Christmas eve sales (they must end after the 23rd).

Like you mentioned this was a pretty low week in sales in comparison with past years. There seem to be a few others below 1M but this seems to be the lowest after last year.

One important comparison is with the launch of the consoles, On the launch of the PS4 and XOne, the two companies combined for over 1.5M basically more than double than this time around. 

Hopefully this can be fully attributed to low stocks and the companies trying to have a record launch. 

I might be calculating different weeks than what you did, but in any case your message is very interesting to point out.

Last edited by dmillos - on 08 January 2021