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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Dec 20-26 - Switch Outsells Lifetime 3DS Sales

dmillos said:
Kjartan said:

Holy shit less than 700'000 units sold for PS4 + PS5 +XB1 +XBX/S combined for Christmas week, these numbers are abysmal.

I just checked and this is the first time ever, according to vgchartz, that the Playstation AND Xbox brand together fail to sell at least 1 million+ units in this big holiday week.

Hi @Kjartan This was an interesting fact that motivated me to check, Some years it is tough to determine what is the equivalent for this week, I did it with all the weeks that included Christmas eve sales (they must end after the 23rd).

Like you mentioned this was a pretty low week in sales in comparison with past years. There seem to be a few others below 1M but this seems to be the lowest after last year.

One important comparison is with the launch of the consoles, On the launch of the PS4 and XOne, the two companies combined for over 1.5M basically more than double than this time around. 

Hopefully this can be fully attributed to low stocks and the companies trying to have a record launch. 

I might be calculating different weeks than what you did, but in any case your message is very interesting to point out.

I forgot about 2019, my bad. We have indeed chosen different weeks for 2017 and 2018 but it doesn't really matter in the end since these are still higher than 2020. 

Of course the low stock for the new consoles are a factor but I also strongly believe that Xbox but especially Playstation were not agressive enough with XB1/PS4 and that were potential for better sales.

Nontheless I'm not too concerned about their fate for next year, especially if they have stronger software to support the consoles.



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dmillos said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Ok, that is a good find.  Perhaps this is normal after all?  I think the portion of the week that happens before Dec 25 does make a difference.

Also, I believe Asia dropped only a little because of Japan.  Their holiday season seems to happen slightly later than much of the rest of the world.  That may be true in some other Asian cultures as well, but Japan contributes a very large portion of the sales in the Asian category.

Hi @The_Liquid_Laser I thought just like you did, that the amount of days before chirstmas does play a vital role in any growth for that week. Your comment made me want to explore that idea, I think you will like what I found. Basically I looked at every week that included christmas eve for every console, and measured its growth:

A very interesting pattern shows up, when there are at least 5 days before Christmas, almost all consoles increase on this week. And the relation is strictly proportional to the amount of days before. 2020 Seems to be the only exception to this rule. 

Like I mentioned before, a chart like this doesn't give us any answers, it just sparks curiosity and it brings the question of why would something like this happen?

Obviously stock shortages come to mind, or perhaps that the numbers could get revised later, or the lack of new games affected the week? There are many possibilities, what do you think could have happened?

Here is also a chart of days before vs growth (excluding this year):

This is probably why you and I (and probably others) were actually hoping for the NS to have higher sales than last week.

Anyways this shouldn't take away from the fact that having 1.2M units sold in one week isn't an amazing number, maybe the bar was just too high from the previous week.

What I do in a situation like this is I come up with a hypothesis that explains the data, but I try to be willing to change it in light of new information, especially since there are several possible explanations.  Usually I just say what I am guessing without explicitly saying it is a hypothesis though.

In this case, my guess (hypothesis) would be that there are shortages in most regions, especially for the Switch base model.  Of course I will be very eager to see Nintendo's quarterly report to see if it has any information that would strengthen or weaken that hypothesis.  The second most likely explanation is that adjustments need to be made.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Btw, thank you for doing all of this research.  It is very helpful.



I don't think we have any info on how PS5 is going to do, yet.
All we know right now is that PS5 has greater supply than PS4 did for the same period.
Once PS5 starts popping up on retail shelves in Western markets, we'll know that the supply pipe is delivering enough to satisfy the demand velocity.

Japan is going to lose millions of sales based on the data. But I admit, this is a deduction based on: either demand isn't high in Japan OR Sony isn't factoring Japan heavily into their plan for this generation; both lead to the same conclusion, lower sales. And again, that's only where things currently stand.

Anyway, once PS5s sit on retail shelves, as opposed to flying off immediately to satisfy demand, then actual sales can be more accurately predicted.

I think market forces are going to work against it in the same way market forces worked against 3DS, but probably not to that extent. ARM-based devices with greater usability, like the Switch, are only going to increase in demand. There's a bit of a tech revolution going on right now for the casual/home market (as opposed to the professional market), and X86 is on the losing end.

Last edited by Jumpin - on 10 January 2021

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Smell ya later 3DS, or rather never.

Ah, the good old days when so many proclaimed the lifetime sales of the two systems would be on par. So much for that.

This year will be PSP, GBA, 360, and PS3 surpassed for sure, possibly even PS1 and Wii.

Crazy to think that the DS and PS2 are even possible now. It all depends on how long Nintendo supports the system. With the rumored 4K mid-gen upgrade possibly coming out this year, I don't see a Switch successor until spring 2024 or later. 

Yes, it would most likely extend NS life as well as DSi did with DS, and just like that the huge existing user base of the original model will keep most new games compatible with it, not fully using the higher power available except for higher framerate, better AA and all the automatic scaling up allowed by game engines and graphics drivers. This will keep on dropping the number of 3rd party home console targeted AAA games, favouring Ninty ones, and also keeping the typical Ninty target as little overlapping with competing ones as possible. Making power whores mad and in denial as usual, but doing a lot of good for Ninty as usual too. and after all doing good for Sony too, as the times of PS2 overwhelming victory are long over, and avoiding a direct clash witn Ninty is most clearly the right way to go, succeed and avoid disruption.



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Have Switch's physical software sales beat 3DS's physical software sales? I'm curious to see how cartridge sales evolve over time, especially since Nintendo hasn't solved the cartridge size problem for 3rd parties who want big games in retail.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

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Darwinianevolution said:

Have Switch's physical software sales beat 3DS's physical software sales? I'm curious to see how cartridge sales evolve over time, especially since Nintendo hasn't solved the cartridge size problem for 3rd parties who want big games in retail.

The more I read, the more I think they piss AAA 3rd parties off on purpose. 



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


Darwinianevolution said:

Have Switch's physical software sales beat 3DS's physical software sales? I'm curious to see how cartridge sales evolve over time, especially since Nintendo hasn't solved the cartridge size problem for 3rd parties who want big games in retail.

Maybe the increase of Nintendo gamers buying digitally also impact the physical software sales. 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Jranation said:
Darwinianevolution said:

Have Switch's physical software sales beat 3DS's physical software sales? I'm curious to see how cartridge sales evolve over time, especially since Nintendo hasn't solved the cartridge size problem for 3rd parties who want big games in retail.

Maybe the increase of Nintendo gamers buying digitally also impact the physical software sales. 

I imagine that's been the case, both as digital becomes more and more accepted and because bigger games end up as incomplete releases in cartridges anyway. If you have to download 90% of the game to play it anyway, what's the point? Nintendo should've really solved it by now, though I imagine 3rd parties really want to push digital as much as possible and don't mind releasing half assed physical versions of their titles.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Switch continues to pull impressive numbers. Looking forward to see PS5 and X|S when we have better stock.

Jumpin said:
1) Japan is going to lose millions of sales based on the data. But I admit, this is a deduction based on: either demand isn't high in Japan OR Sony isn't factoring Japan heavily into their plan for this generation; both lead to the same conclusion, lower sales. And again, that's only where things currently stand.

2) I think market forces are going to work against it in the same way market forces worked against 3DS, but probably not to that extent. ARM-based devices with greater usability, like the Switch, are only going to increase in demand. There's a bit of a tech revolution going on right now for the casual/home market (as opposed to the professional market), and X86 is on the losing end.

1) I think it's simply due to low demand in Japan resulting in low allocation. I'm pretty sure traditional home consoles in Japan will be even more irrelevant this gen. I don't see PS5 crossing 5 million there unless it gets exclusivity to mainline Monster Hunter, Final Fantasy, and Dragon Quest titles (or some surprising new system seller which is unlikely).

2) Countless predictions have been dooming various consoles since forever. I'm not necessarily saying that's what you're doing here. And I'm not saying your prediction about X86 won't come true. But how do you think this "losing end" will impact the longevity and sales of PS5? Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't PS5 (with its estimated 4.5 million sales in 6 weeks) one of the fastest selling consoles of all time? PS5 in Japan will most likely be down but besides from that, how do you think the "market forces working against PS5" will impact it?



SilenceDeadly said:

Damn I don't post much here but people still want in denial that Ps5 will crush anything amuse me, denial is strong. Gonna be a rough years for you all, also rough years for Nintendo haters.

Stay safe & don't panic to much once Ps5 starts the absolute domination in 2022.

The thing is not that people here are in denial, but the fact that we really don't have enough data. Not saying that is impossible for it to happen, but we really can not have an idea of how high will the PS5 fly until stock is easily available and we check out how it can do on a normal week. Right now, what we can tell, is that there are a lot of challenges ahead. The competition is way tougher now than what it was at the beggining of the PS4's life, it still going to be a while until more strong exclusives get released and the stock could be a big problem in 2021 if it's not solved soon enough. Besides the elephant in the room that are the japanese sales.

Here's the thing, right now we have no idea on how this can or cannot affect the console. If it will do better, worse or equal as the PS4, we really don't have any data to answer this. We can only look at what is happening right now and what is seens that this is showing us.



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