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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Dec 20-26 - Switch Outsells Lifetime 3DS Sales

After the WiiU I never thought I'd see a day where one Nintendo system, outsells four Sony's and MS's systems, combined ... IN EUROPE!



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SilenceDeadly said:
trunkswd said:

I don't see this changing in 2021. Other than maybe when a big game releases for the PS5 or Xbox Series X|S. But that really depends on the stock of the consoles. 

No reason to believe Sony Ps5 Stock will improve drastically, there is clearly problems at the shipping line at this point, 2021 it is going to be another terrible year for Ps5 stock wise.

Switch will definetely take 2021 it is not even a context.

Ps5 will take the lead 2022 onwards with very very ease but 2021 it is Switch kicking ass in the Top Spot. 

Depending on if/when the Switch Pro launches and what it looks like, Switch could win 2022 as well. If it is like New 3ds where only a couple games are really made to use it then it won't, but if it allows for many new games to port over and that incentivizes enough current Switch owners to buy the Switch Pro it could!

At the very least I think 2022 will be close, anything beyond that will be Playstashdomination until Switch 2's second year.



SilenceDeadly said:
 

No reason to believe Sony Ps5 Stock will improve drastically, there is clearly problems at the shipping line at this point, 2021 it is going to be another terrible year for Ps5 stock wise.

Switch will definetely take 2021 it is not even a context.

Ps5 will take the lead 2022 onwards with very very ease but 2021 it is Switch kicking ass in the Top Spot. 

Why would the PS5 take the lead "with very very ease" from 2022? The Switch is selling faster than any Sony console ever did, why would it be easy for the PS5 to outsell the Switch? From your posting history it's clear you are very confident in the PS5's success, but flat out predicting it will easily topple Switch level sales is basically saying the PS5 will no doubt become the best selling console of all time, no uncertainty at all.



PAOerfulone said:
SilenceDeadly said:

No reason to believe Sony Ps5 Stock will improve drastically, there is clearly problems at the shipping line at this point, 2021 it is going to be another terrible year for Ps5 stock wise.

Switch will definetely take 2021 it is not even a context.

Ps5 will take the lead 2022 onwards with very very ease but 2021 it is Switch kicking ass in the Top Spot. 

I would not say "with very very ease."

It would take the Switch sales really dropping like a rock, along with the PS5 skyrocketing these next two years for it to become the market leader by 2022.

Assuming the Switch takes a natural decline, I could see it selling 23-25 million units in 2021; Then maybe another 20-22 million units in 2022. 

The PS5 will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-17 million in 2021; And then rise from there to 18-20 million units in 2022. So there's a good chance that the Switch will still be the market leader in 2022, into the early parts of 2023, barring a total collapse, which I just don't see happening.

Plus, consider that the PS4's peak year was just ~20 million in 2017, which was its 4th full year on the market. The PS5's 4th full year on the market would be 2024, and if it has a similar trajectory to the PS4, then it wouldn't truly become the undisputed market leader until that year.

The Switch could be the top dog for a very long time. At least for the next 2 years; Then by 2023, they'll be neck and neck, going back and forth as the PS5 is truly starting to hit its stride while the Switch is on its way out. But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on the PS5 taking that top spot by 2022.

You´re absolutely right in your whole post but you´re missing 1 thing:

- Ps5 will demolish Ps4 performance. 



SilenceDeadly said:
PAOerfulone said:

I would not say "with very very ease."

It would take the Switch sales really dropping like a rock, along with the PS5 skyrocketing these next two years for it to become the market leader by 2022.

Assuming the Switch takes a natural decline, I could see it selling 23-25 million units in 2021; Then maybe another 20-22 million units in 2022. 

The PS5 will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-17 million in 2021; And then rise from there to 18-20 million units in 2022. So there's a good chance that the Switch will still be the market leader in 2022, into the early parts of 2023, barring a total collapse, which I just don't see happening.

Plus, consider that the PS4's peak year was just ~20 million in 2017, which was its 4th full year on the market. The PS5's 4th full year on the market would be 2024, and if it has a similar trajectory to the PS4, then it wouldn't truly become the undisputed market leader until that year.

The Switch could be the top dog for a very long time. At least for the next 2 years; Then by 2023, they'll be neck and neck, going back and forth as the PS5 is truly starting to hit its stride while the Switch is on its way out. But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on the PS5 taking that top spot by 2022.

You´re absolutely right in your whole post but you´re missing 1 thing:

- Ps5 will demolish Ps4 performance. 

PS4 had an originally always online, Kinect focused, no/weak Gamepass competitor in Xbox One and the Wii U was tanking as well. So basically from day 1 it was seem as the flagship console for last gen, and consumers followed the bandwagon.

With Switch dominating and Gamepass getting more and more subscribers on both console and PC, I really can't see how PS5 will sell more than PS4. And that isn't even taking into consideration how many dozens of major games PS5 won't get that MS will because of acquisitions. Even if whatever next game they each makes still goes multiplatform, I doubt any beyond that will except for a couple.

Initial sales mean nothing as those are basically just fanboys who would buy their respective company's device no matter what (like I am with Nintendo).



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SilenceDeadly said:
PAOerfulone said:

I would not say "with very very ease."

It would take the Switch sales really dropping like a rock, along with the PS5 skyrocketing these next two years for it to become the market leader by 2022.

Assuming the Switch takes a natural decline, I could see it selling 23-25 million units in 2021; Then maybe another 20-22 million units in 2022. 

The PS5 will likely be somewhere in the neighborhood of 15-17 million in 2021; And then rise from there to 18-20 million units in 2022. So there's a good chance that the Switch will still be the market leader in 2022, into the early parts of 2023, barring a total collapse, which I just don't see happening.

Plus, consider that the PS4's peak year was just ~20 million in 2017, which was its 4th full year on the market. The PS5's 4th full year on the market would be 2024, and if it has a similar trajectory to the PS4, then it wouldn't truly become the undisputed market leader until that year.

The Switch could be the top dog for a very long time. At least for the next 2 years; Then by 2023, they'll be neck and neck, going back and forth as the PS5 is truly starting to hit its stride while the Switch is on its way out. But if I were a betting man, I wouldn't bet on the PS5 taking that top spot by 2022.

You´re absolutely right in your whole post but you´re missing 1 thing:

- Ps5 will demolish Ps4 performance. 

How? Where will it outdo PS4? Not in Japan, that's for sure. Sony and MS have been sharing approx. 170-190m in sales for three generations now, so for PS5 to "demolish" PS4, it would need XBSX to perform even worse than XBO AND for Sony to expand the market by a lot.



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SilenceDeadly said:

Momentum will slow down in 2021 and 2022 for sure

Why ?



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I thought it was weird that the Switch total was lower this week.  I looked at the previous 4 weeks for reference.

2020 Switch sales (for weeks listed)

Americas Europe Asia Oceania Global
week 49          549,686          350,474          284,978          42,133          1,275,788
week 50           621,997          358,182          366,400          49,520          1,396,099
week 51          677,811          416,717          394,266          57,642          1,546,436
week 52          467,036          266,197          388,184          38,577          1,159,994
WoW change -31% -36% -2% -33% -25%

Sales this week are down by about 1/3 WoW in every region except Asia.  Also this is the lowest holiday week for each region other than Asia.  I suspect that there are probably shortages in a lot of areas, especially for the base model which seems to be the model that is by far the most popular.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 08 January 2021

Holy shit less than 700'000 units sold for PS4 + PS5 +XB1 +XBX/S combined for Christmas week, these numbers are abysmal.

I just checked and this is the first time ever, according to vgchartz, that the Playstation AND Xbox brand together fail to sell at least 1 million+ units in this big holiday week.



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Kjartan said:

Holy shit less than 700'000 units sold for PS4 + PS5 +XB1 +XBX/S combined for Christmas week, these numbers are abysmal.

I just checked and this is the first time ever, according to vgchartz, that the Playstation AND Xbox brand together fail to sell at least 1 million+ units in this big holiday week.

Is the dedicated home console market doomed?