PS5 only. Series X probably won't, but it might beat it narrowly. Tbh an opinion I currently have (that might be proven wrong) is that the Series S/X will not outsell the Xbox One

I think actually the same.

PS5 will, XBS should in 2022

That's an easy one. PS5 only.
Sony already is at the point when they need to sell a little bit less than 10m to make it happen. Hard to see what can happen for them to sell less than 10m next year especially considering that PS5 is outpacing PS4 launch aligned.
Xbox won't. The best case scenario which seems very unlikely due to supply constraint issues is that they might reach 3m by the end of 2020. This means that they need to sell more than 10m consoles next year to outsell WiiU. A quick reminder - Xbox One peaked at around 9m in 2015. So, in the current situation it's hard to see Xbox console to sell more than 10m in it's first year.

Hi @Alby_da_Wolf It seems like PS5 has the best chance of doing this. Here is how long it took other home consoles:

Your question is basically if it is able to reach 13.6M in under 57 weeks. The PS4 was able to achieve it in 52 weeks. Considering that weeks 53-57 are holiday season, then it seems pretty safe to say that PS5 should be able to achieve it. Xbox seems to have a slower pace at the beginning, therefore it seems like a tough target.

XBSS/X is in a tricky situation to predict:
On the positive side, common sense suggests MS will try to avoid repeating past mistakes (but they could stubbornly repeat some anyway, or incorrectly identify some others), to make things better, XBSS can cater to a lower budget audience.
On the negative side, some bad past mistakes still tarnish the brand image, plus there are those supply problems (or terrible underestimation) that partially ruined the launch window potential sales. XBSS has a part on the negative side too, as games must run on it too, so some low budget games could offer just the low-end version and minor, automatic improvements on the premium model, pissing off the XBSX audience, or they could offer XBSS a badly downgraded version of the high-end version, pissing off the low-end audience even more.
On the unpredictable side, Game Pass can please many gamers, but 3rd party devs and publishers of best selling games and of good selling ones, but very front loaded, could just hate it and avoid it like the plague, completely, or at least until their games enter a phase of low numbers and very low price sales. Game Pass users playing a very high number of games each year will end up giving devs and publishers very modest sums for each game, incentivising very cheap projects at the expense of AA and AAA ones.

I don't see Series S contribute much to that goal. Series X sees high demand and this will continue in 2021. Microsoft has to catch up with demand and if they do it will almost be holiday 21 and demand will rise again. So why should Microsoft produce and try to sell customers a $300 console if they could also sell them a $500 box?

Except that is from 0 and the op is pitting whatever they sell this year + 20201 vs the 13.56 millions of the wii U. Both sould sell more than 3 this year and more than 10 in 2021 . They Have that new console smell so they should sell well next year.

Hi @Chicho I hope you are right, it would be great to see the XS be able to sell 3M+ this year and 10M+ next. 

Right now the XS has sold 2M, that means that it has 2 weeks to sell 1M. It is pretty hard, given that it seems that they are having stock issues. 

XONE sold 7.5M on its second year, so the XS would have to sell quite a bit more. It is not impossible, but it is not going to be easy. 

I hope you are right and it ends up selling a lot next year.

XBSS is made to be sold to people that would very reluctantly pay $400 and never $500 or more for a console. MS made it probably to obtain a user base as large as possible as quick as possible, and also to push Game Pass.
Its negative side effect is not lower revenue on HW, even less lower profit, as both Sony and MS consoles are sold at a loss initially, but that low budget games will probably have just the low-performance version on XBS, and XBSX will get that too. Once decided to make such an underspecced entry level console for the XBS archirtecture, this bad effect can't be avoided anymore, so MS will better sell XBSS in numbers large enough to justify it, otherwise it will end up being just a thing that damaged XBSX with nothing in return.