Will PS5 and/or XBSS/X outsell Wii U by 2021 end?

[Alby_da_Wolf]

SKMBlake said:

tack50 said:

PS5 only. Series X probably won't, but it might beat it narrowly. Tbh an opinion I currently have (that might be proven wrong) is that the Series S/X will not outsell the Xbox One

I think actually the same.

Ryng said:

PS5 will, XBS should in 2022

derpysquirtle64 said:

That's an easy one. PS5 only.
Sony already is at the point when they need to sell a little bit less than 10m to make it happen. Hard to see what can happen for them to sell less than 10m next year especially considering that PS5 is outpacing PS4 launch aligned.
Xbox won't. The best case scenario which seems very unlikely due to supply constraint issues is that they might reach 3m by the end of 2020. This means that they need to sell more than 10m consoles next year to outsell WiiU. A quick reminder - Xbox One peaked at around 9m in 2015. So, in the current situation it's hard to see Xbox console to sell more than 10m in it's first year.

dmillos said:

Alby_da_Wolf said:

Will they? Both? Just one of them?

Hi @Alby_da_Wolf It seems like PS5 has the best chance of doing this. Here is how long it took other home consoles:

Your question is basically if it is able to reach 13.6M in under 57 weeks. The PS4 was able to achieve it in 52 weeks. Considering that weeks 53-57 are holiday season, then it seems pretty safe to say that PS5 should be able to achieve it. Xbox seems to have a slower pace at the beginning, therefore it seems like a tough target.

XBSS/X is in a tricky situation to predict:
On the positive side, common sense suggests MS will try to avoid repeating past mistakes (but they could stubbornly repeat some anyway, or incorrectly identify some others), to make things better, XBSS can cater to a lower budget audience.
On the negative side, some bad past mistakes still tarnish the brand image, plus there are those supply problems (or terrible underestimation) that partially ruined the launch window potential sales. XBSS has a part on the negative side too, as games must run on it too, so some low budget games could offer just the low-end version and minor, automatic improvements on the premium model, pissing off the XBSX audience, or they could offer XBSS a badly downgraded version of the high-end version, pissing off the low-end audience even more.
On the unpredictable side, Game Pass can please many gamers, but 3rd party devs and publishers of best selling games and of good selling ones, but very front loaded, could just hate it and avoid it like the plague, completely, or at least until their games enter a phase of low numbers and very low price sales. Game Pass users playing a very high number of games each year will end up giving devs and publishers very modest sums for each game, incentivising very cheap projects at the expense of AA and AAA ones.