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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will PS5 and/or XBSS/X outsell Wii U by 2021 end?

 

Will they?

Yes, both 24 27.59%
 
PS5 only 45 51.72%
 
PS5 only 5 5.75%
 
XBSS/X only 1 1.15%
 
No 7 8.05%
 
This poll is rigged! 5 5.75%
 
Total:87

Game pass is a great service, but it contributes little to hardware sales.
People will continue to misunderstand about game passe forever.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m

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How is everyone feeling on this one? Still pessimistic about X|S? Here is where they at Through Week 26 by VG charz estimates:

PS5: 8,220,011
XSX|S: 4,904,300

 and here are the latest lifetimes estimates

PlayStation 5 - 223,822 (8,438,333)
Xbox Series X|S - 94,691 (5,004,091)

PS 5 is over 8M and no doubt it will do it. The X|S just crossed 5M and i think is very doable even if is not as certain as the PS5. 

What do you think?

Edit: misspelled word. 



Chicho said:

How is everyone feeling on this one? Still pessimistic about X|S? Here is where they at Through Week 26 by VG charz estimates:

PS5: 8,220,011
XSX|S: 4,904,300

 and here are the latest lifetimes estimates

PlayStation 5 - 223,822 (8,438,333)
Xbox Series X|S - 94,691 (5,004,091)

PS 5 is over 8M and no doubt it will do it. The X|S just crossed 5M and i think is very doable even if is not as certain as the PS5. 

What do you think?

Edit: misspelled word. 

Dont think XSX has production to even hit 14m by end of 2021.
So its probably not happending.



PS5 for sure. It is half way there, will be a walk in the park. Xbox won`t likely cross it before March 2022.

And this time around we can`t fault "reveal fiasco". MS production is in line with their sales expectations, so they were nowhere near as optimistic about the sales number as xbox fans on the site.

Last edited by DonFerrari - on 28 May 2021

duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

PS5 will be close to 20 million units sold by the end of the year, so that’s one.

For the other maybe Q1 2022



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I stand by my vote; PS5 will blast passed with ease, Xbox Series will fall short.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

JRPGfan said:

Dont think XSX has production to even hit 14m by end of 2021.
So its probably not happending.

DonFerrari said:

PS5 for sure. It is half way there, will be a walk in the park. Xbox won`t likely cross it before March 2022.

And this time around we can`t fault "reveal fiasco". MS production is in line with their sales expectations, so they were nowhere near as optimistic about the sales number as xbox fans on the site.

They were not optimistic but they also miscalculated the demand ratio of X vs S. They though the S was going to be way more popular but now they should have a better idea and they have time to adjust production before the holidays.



DonFerrari said:

PS5 for sure. It is half way there, will be a walk in the park. Xbox won`t likely cross it before March 2022.

And this time around we can`t fault "reveal fiasco". MS production is in line with their sales expectations, so they were nowhere near as optimistic about the sales number as xbox fans on the site.

This is one of the few times that I actually agree with you. I think they assumed the new consoles would sell either equal or slightly better than the X1 so they planned their production lines accordingly. Now, I have no idea how long does it take for these companies to ramp up production but they said the shortages would last until June, so there is the chance that they might be ramping up production by then. I guess we'll see.



Chicho said:
JRPGfan said:

Dont think XSX has production to even hit 14m by end of 2021.
So its probably not happending.

DonFerrari said:

PS5 for sure. It is half way there, will be a walk in the park. Xbox won`t likely cross it before March 2022.

And this time around we can`t fault "reveal fiasco". MS production is in line with their sales expectations, so they were nowhere near as optimistic about the sales number as xbox fans on the site.

They were not optimistic but they also miscalculated the demand ratio of X vs S. They though the S was going to be way more popular but now they should have a better idea and they have time to adjust production before the holidays.

Perhaps they miscalculated the ratio (we don't even know truly what that is both in sells and production). Companies rely on their projections. If MS thought they could sell as much as PS or Switch in a similar timeframe they would had contracted ahead of time (to the companies producing it doesn't really matter how much they sell in the end, but how much MS, Sony or Nintendo contracts and for how much). So in their realistic projection MS was expecting something that is about half PS sales (not that they knew exactly what Sony would go for in production numbers, but when both are basically sold out, but one is selling 2x1 at similar prices that to me mean that between both companies the sales projections put PS at 2-1 against Xbox).

chakkra said:
DonFerrari said:

PS5 for sure. It is half way there, will be a walk in the park. Xbox won`t likely cross it before March 2022.

And this time around we can`t fault "reveal fiasco". MS production is in line with their sales expectations, so they were nowhere near as optimistic about the sales number as xbox fans on the site.

This is one of the few times that I actually agree with you. I think they assumed the new consoles would sell either equal or slightly better than the X1 so they planned their production lines accordingly. Now, I have no idea how long does it take for these companies to ramp up production but they said the shortages would last until June, so there is the chance that they might be ramping up production by then. I guess we'll see.

Probably over a year to really ramp up. We can see from the three platforms that hardly there is any big jump in production in the same year, those take a long time to occur because the contracts have been signed with quantities for long period (to also consider discounts), and to make things worse all 3 platforms are kinda supply hungry, miners also making GPUs more expensive/scarce together with smartphones... So all put together we had Sony saying publicly that they would have a hard time ramping up production, so I think same is true for MS. Just look that Sony that releases their numbers had basically just made a forecast of slim passing PS4 numbers aligned for yet another year.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

XS would have to sell another 8.5 million over the following 7 and a half months. Not impossible, but quite unlikely given its current pace, in which it has sold 5 million over roughly 6 months including a holiday season.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.