By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - The console market is stabilizing

 

Your view of the competitive landscape as of 2021

Level playing field (all three fairly equal) 20 24.10%
 
Strongly slanted Playstation 8 9.64%
 
Strongly slanted Nintendo 16 19.28%
 
Strongly slanted Microsoft 2 2.41%
 
Strongly slanted Nintendo & Playstation 35 42.17%
 
Strongly slanted Microsoft & Playstation 0 0%
 
Strongly slanted Microsoft & Nintendo 2 2.41%
 
Total:83
JRPGfan said:

The powermove MS just pulled off, by forking out 7,5$ billion and getting ZeniMax, put them right at the top of the pack, if if not atleast equal to the others now.

ZeniMax: Bethesda Softworks + Arkane Studios + Alpha Dog+ Bethesda Game Studios+ id Software + MachineGames + Roundhouse + Tango Gameworks

Its insane that future Doom/Fallout games may be console exclusives to xbox imo.

(voted its a pretty level playing field now)

I do agree that would be a massive power play on Microsoft's part if they were to make all future installments of Doom, Fallout, Wolfenstein, etc. XBox exclusives.  But, will they really do that is the question.  I know they mentioned that titles not already in development for multiplatform would be handled on a case by case basis.  But, we have already seen Microsoft release further iterations of Minecraft as multiplatform games after buying Mojang.  If those titles remain multiplatform, not much really changes in the console landscape, outside of Microsoft being able to put those studios to work on potential new IP exclusive to XBox.  I guess we'll have to wait and see how much leverage this acquisition has in terms of hardware sales.



Around the Network

I'm not gonna sit here and listen to anything positive about Xbox.



Twitter: @d21lewis

With the way that Switch is already selling, and MS making big moves to equalize Xbox and Playstation sales again next gen, I could see gen 9 marketshare being alot more more like gen 7 marketshare than gen 8 marketshare personally. Yearly marketshare that is, Switch is last gen and Switch 2 won't release for a few years yet, so you can't really compare lifetime marketshare on this upcoming gen, but you can compare yearly marketshare starting in 2021 which will be the first full year for Xbox Series and Playstation 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see all 3 consoles in the 30-40% range on yearly share soon, so like say 31% Xbox, 34% Playstation, 35% Switch as an example for 2022 for instance. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 22 September 2020

JRPGfan said:

The powermove MS just pulled off, by forking out 7,5$ billion and getting ZeniMax, put them right at the top of the pack, if if not atleast equal to the others now.

ZeniMax: Bethesda Softworks + Arkane Studios + Alpha Dog+ Bethesda Game Studios+ id Software + MachineGames + Roundhouse + Tango Gameworks

Its insane that future Doom/Fallout games may be console exclusives to xbox imo.

(voted its a pretty level playing field now)

I think its still a reach to even put MS as close equal. Right now their 2021 line consists of Halo and not much else, Sony are very much leading the momentum at the start of the generation with Spiderman, Demon Souls, Ratchet, Horizon and God of War all announced by for its first year (amongst lessor titles like Kena,  Death Loop, GhostWire) Right now MS only has Halo and lessor titles. They really needs to get games out because thats ultimately going to shift the conversation, the average consumer will not care (or even know) until they see the next Fallout/Doom/Elderscrolls exclusive to Xbox or available on Gamepass. 

99% of the people discussing the Bethesda acquisition can probably comfortable fit in Xbox Series and PS5's launch day sales. 



shikamaru317 said:

With the way that Switch is already selling, and MS making big moves to equalize Xbox and Playstation sales again next gen, I could see gen 9 marketshare being alot more more like gen 7 marketshare than gen 8 marketshare personally. Yearly marketshare that is, Switch is last gen and Switch 2 won't release for a few years yet, so you can't really compare lifetime marketshare on this upcoming gen, but you can compare yearly marketshare starting in 2021 which will be the first full year for Xbox Series and Playstation 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see all 3 consoles in the 30-40% range on yearly share soon, so like say 31% Xbox, 34% Playstation, 35% Switch as an example for 2021 for instance. 

Consoles start really slow, while Switch is on the peak. Expect next year to be dominated by Switch, but later on the other consoles take the lead when Switch reaches it's end of life and the other ones enter their peak.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Around the Network
Mnementh said:
shikamaru317 said:

With the way that Switch is already selling, and MS making big moves to equalize Xbox and Playstation sales again next gen, I could see gen 9 marketshare being alot more more like gen 7 marketshare than gen 8 marketshare personally. Yearly marketshare that is, Switch is last gen and Switch 2 won't release for a few years yet, so you can't really compare lifetime marketshare on this upcoming gen, but you can compare yearly marketshare starting in 2021 which will be the first full year for Xbox Series and Playstation 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see all 3 consoles in the 30-40% range on yearly share soon, so like say 31% Xbox, 34% Playstation, 35% Switch as an example for 2021 for instance. 

Consoles start really slow, while Switch is on the peak. Expect next year to be dominated by Switch, but later on the other consoles take the lead when Switch reaches it's end of life and the other ones enter their peak.

I don't know, Xbox One and PS4 had pretty good 2014 sales, which was their first full year on the market, 7.9m for XB1 and 14.5m for PS4. Both Xbox Series and PS5 have better exclusive line-ups for 2021 than XB1 and PS4 had in 2014, MS has a new mainline Halo coming alongside a rumored Forza Horizon 5 (Halo MCC was a disaster on release in 2014 and Forza Horizon is a much more popular franchise now than it was when Forza Horizon 2 released in 2014), while Sony has Horizon 2, Ratchet & Clank, and God of War 5 assuming no delays (which is alot better than Sony's 2014 lineup of Little Big Planet 3, Infamous: Second Son, and The Last of Us Remastered). Xbox also has better pricing now than they did with Xbox One in 2014, Xbox One was $500 for the first half of the year in 2014, before getting a $400 kinectless SKU in June, Xbox Series has a $300 model available right from the start of 2021.

Switch could get it's first price cut in 2021 which will boost it alot if that happens, but alot depends on what Switch's exclusive lineup for 2021 looks like imo. Will we finally get heavy hitter exclusives like Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, and Breath of the Wild 2? Will we get a new Pokemon, either a gen 4 remake or Let's Go Gen 2? If Switch has a price cut to $250 and $150 on Switch and Switch Lite, as well as the rumored Switch Pro at say $350, plus a bunch of good exclusives, I would definitely agree that it will dominate 2021, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, yearly sales will definitely be more equal between the 3 by 2022 I'm sure, more of Xbox's studios will have exclusives ready by then which will really help their sales I think, while Switch will be starting to slow in 2022 ahead of a likely 2023 release for Switch 2 imo. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 22 September 2020

RolStoppable said:
This comes across as a selective writeup to arrive at the desired conclusion of all three manufacturers doing about equally well. At no point does the essay touch on Sony's entry in the handheld console market and subsequent exit. If you factored that in, you'd see a clear advantage for Nintendo going forward because they have the sole control over an entire sector in the console business.

We are also in a year where Switch sales are poised to exceed the peak level of the Wii and will be only second to the DS. At the same time most people already expect the PS5 to do worse than the PS4, simply because Microsoft didn't commit tremendous blunders with their new Xbox. The very likely result is that Nintendo will finish this gen far ahead of both Sony and Microsoft in terms of both unit sales and profits. Japan being a lost cause for both Sony and Microsoft doesn't point to any kind of balance either.

Switch also marks the seventh consecutive generation for Nintendo. Just saying.

The handheld blindness is habitual. The handheld responds to a good share of the market. Switch have the heritage of 3DS, Wiiu, Psvita and the indies.

 



RolStoppable said:
This comes across as a selective writeup to arrive at the desired conclusion of all three manufacturers doing about equally well. At no point does the essay touch on Sony's entry in the handheld console market and subsequent exit. If you factored that in, you'd see a clear advantage for Nintendo going forward because they have the sole control over an entire sector in the console business.

We are also in a year where Switch sales are poised to exceed the peak level of the Wii and will be only second to the DS. At the same time most people already expect the PS5 to do worse than the PS4, simply because Microsoft didn't commit tremendous blunders with their new Xbox. The very likely result is that Nintendo will finish this gen far ahead of both Sony and Microsoft in terms of both unit sales and profits. Japan being a lost cause for both Sony and Microsoft doesn't point to any kind of balance either.

Switch also marks the seventh consecutive generation for Nintendo. Just saying.

Alright thanks for the pessimistic view on my write-up.

By the way, I didn't mention Sony's portables in their history because we all know they entered and left. But if you need me to add that OP just let me know and I'll be happy to serve you.

As for Nintendo generations, I went according to Wikipedia since nobody agrees on it, and I listed the consoles I was referring to, so it should have been obvious that I counted Switch and WiiU in one. But I'll fix it for you. 

Also, I voted "Strongly slanted Nintendo" because, even though the market is stabilising, I believe that its stable nature is Sony and MS level (100M each), with Nintendo at much higher sales (130 - 200M) due to their potential to reach their usual handheld customers (Between 80 and 120M) and their potential on the home console space (between 50 and 100M) with their new hybrid. But the poll option "level playing field" and stability are two different things. Stability is what you believe will be the most natural values for all 3, when there is less movement in the industry. I didn't put my vote in OP so as to give readers the freedom to read my write-up and interpret their own results.

Last edited by padib - on 22 September 2020

Lets wait a for sales numbers first. If Xbox numbers pick up due to select games from Bethesda - great. We need more competition in the console space.

We are still several years away from TES 6 coming out and that will be the system seller. Who knows.. at least this generation has gotten more exciting and we've only barely scratched the surface with the Switch kicking off Gen 9. I still think Nintendo and Sony will run away again this generation in terms of consoles sales. Xbox will attract a sizable number of customers this gen, thats for sure.

Anecdotally, in the UK Xbox Series X was available for hours after launch. Series S was available for almost 12 hours from most retailers (Amazon included). PS5 (normal and DE) sold out within minutes.



hinch said:

Lets wait a for sales numbers first. If Xbox numbers pick up due to select games from Bethesda - great. We need more competition in the console space.

We are still several years away from TES 6 coming out and that will be the system seller. Who knows.. at least this generation has gotten more exciting and we've only barely scratched the surface with the Switch kicking off Gen 9. I still think Nintendo and Sony will run away again this generation in terms of consoles sales. Xbox will attract a sizable number of customers this gen, thats for sure.

Anecdotally, in the UK Xbox Series X was available for hours after launch. Series S was available for almost 12 hours from most retailers (Amazon included). PS5 (normal and DE) sold out within minutes.

I heard it actually sold out in like 7 minutes on Amazon UK last night, then got restocked later on, which made people think it never sold out initially. Curry's in the UK had a 50,000 person queue for preorders at one point.

I know US wise, it sold out at almost every retailer within an hour, most in less than 10 minutes. 

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 22 September 2020