With the way that Switch is already selling, and MS making big moves to equalize Xbox and Playstation sales again next gen, I could see gen 9 marketshare being alot more more like gen 7 marketshare than gen 8 marketshare personally. Yearly marketshare that is, Switch is last gen and Switch 2 won't release for a few years yet, so you can't really compare lifetime marketshare on this upcoming gen, but you can compare yearly marketshare starting in 2021 which will be the first full year for Xbox Series and Playstation 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see all 3 consoles in the 30-40% range on yearly share soon, so like say 31% Xbox, 34% Playstation, 35% Switch as an example for 2021 for instance.
Consoles start really slow, while Switch is on the peak. Expect next year to be dominated by Switch, but later on the other consoles take the lead when Switch reaches it's end of life and the other ones enter their peak.
I don't know, Xbox One and PS4 had pretty good 2014 sales, which was their first full year on the market, 7.9m for XB1 and 14.5m for PS4. Both Xbox Series and PS5 have better exclusive line-ups for 2021 than XB1 and PS4 had in 2014, MS has a new mainline Halo coming alongside a rumored Forza Horizon 5 (Halo MCC was a disaster on release in 2014 and Forza Horizon is a much more popular franchise now than it was when Forza Horizon 2 released in 2014), while Sony has Horizon 2, Ratchet & Clank, and God of War 5 assuming no delays (which is alot better than Sony's 2014 lineup of Little Big Planet 3, Infamous: Second Son, and The Last of Us Remastered). Xbox also has better pricing now than they did with Xbox One in 2014, Xbox One was $500 for the first half of the year in 2014, before getting a $400 kinectless SKU in June, Xbox Series has a $300 model available right from the start of 2021.
Switch could get it's first price cut in 2021 which will boost it alot if that happens, but alot depends on what Switch's exclusive lineup for 2021 looks like imo. Will we finally get heavy hitter exclusives like Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, and Breath of the Wild 2? Will we get a new Pokemon, either a gen 4 remake or Let's Go Gen 2? If Switch has a price cut to $250 and $150 on Switch and Switch Lite, as well as the rumored Switch Pro at say $350, plus a bunch of good exclusives, I would definitely agree that it will dominate 2021, but we'll have to wait and see. Either way, yearly sales will definitely be more equal between the 3 by 2022 I'm sure, more of Xbox's studios will have exclusives ready by then which will really help their sales I think, while Switch will be starting to slow in 2022 ahead of a likely 2023 release for Switch 2 imo.
Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 22 September 2020