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Forums - Sales Discussion - The console market is stabilizing

 

Your view of the competitive landscape as of 2021

Level playing field (all three fairly equal) 20 24.10%
 
Strongly slanted Playstation 8 9.64%
 
Strongly slanted Nintendo 16 19.28%
 
Strongly slanted Microsoft 2 2.41%
 
Strongly slanted Nintendo & Playstation 35 42.17%
 
Strongly slanted Microsoft & Playstation 0 0%
 
Strongly slanted Microsoft & Nintendo 2 2.41%
 
Total:83
Otter on 22 September 2020

JRPGfan said:

The powermove MS just pulled off, by forking out 7,5$ billion and getting ZeniMax, put them right at the top of the pack, if if not atleast equal to the others now.

ZeniMax: Bethesda Softworks + Arkane Studios + Alpha Dog+ Bethesda Game Studios+ id Software + MachineGames + Roundhouse + Tango Gameworks

Its insane that future Doom/Fallout games may be console exclusives to xbox imo.

(voted its a pretty level playing field now)

I think its still a reach to even put MS as close equal. Right now their 2021 line consists of Halo and not much else, Sony are very much leading the momentum at the start of the generation with Spiderman, Demon Souls, Ratchet, Horizon and God of War all announced by for its first year (amongst lessor titles like Kena,  Death Loop, GhostWire) Right now MS only has Halo and lessor titles. They really needs to get games out because thats ultimately going to shift the conversation, the average consumer will not care (or even know) until they see the next Fallout/Doom/Elderscrolls exclusive to Xbox or available on Gamepass. 

99% of the people discussing the Bethesda acquisition can probably comfortable fit in Xbox Series and PS5's launch day sales. 



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Mnementh on 22 September 2020
shikamaru317 said:

With the way that Switch is already selling, and MS making big moves to equalize Xbox and Playstation sales again next gen, I could see gen 9 marketshare being alot more more like gen 7 marketshare than gen 8 marketshare personally. Yearly marketshare that is, Switch is last gen and Switch 2 won't release for a few years yet, so you can't really compare lifetime marketshare on this upcoming gen, but you can compare yearly marketshare starting in 2021 which will be the first full year for Xbox Series and Playstation 5, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see all 3 consoles in the 30-40% range on yearly share soon, so like say 31% Xbox, 34% Playstation, 35% Switch as an example for 2021 for instance. 

Consoles start really slow, while Switch is on the peak. Expect next year to be dominated by Switch, but later on the other consoles take the lead when Switch reaches it's end of life and the other ones enter their peak.



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Agente42 on 22 September 2020
RolStoppable said:
This comes across as a selective writeup to arrive at the desired conclusion of all three manufacturers doing about equally well. At no point does the essay touch on Sony's entry in the handheld console market and subsequent exit. If you factored that in, you'd see a clear advantage for Nintendo going forward because they have the sole control over an entire sector in the console business.

We are also in a year where Switch sales are poised to exceed the peak level of the Wii and will be only second to the DS. At the same time most people already expect the PS5 to do worse than the PS4, simply because Microsoft didn't commit tremendous blunders with their new Xbox. The very likely result is that Nintendo will finish this gen far ahead of both Sony and Microsoft in terms of both unit sales and profits. Japan being a lost cause for both Sony and Microsoft doesn't point to any kind of balance either.

Switch also marks the seventh consecutive generation for Nintendo. Just saying.

The handheld blindness is habitual. The handheld responds to a good share of the market. Switch have the heritage of 3DS, Wiiu, Psvita and the indies.

 



hinch on 22 September 2020

Lets wait a for sales numbers first. If Xbox numbers pick up due to select games from Bethesda - great. We need more competition in the console space.

We are still several years away from TES 6 coming out and that will be the system seller. Who knows.. at least this generation has gotten more exciting and we've only barely scratched the surface with the Switch kicking off Gen 9. I still think Nintendo and Sony will run away again this generation in terms of consoles sales. Xbox will attract a sizable number of customers this gen, thats for sure.

Anecdotally, in the UK Xbox Series X was available for hours after launch. Series S was available for almost 12 hours from most retailers (Amazon included). PS5 (normal and DE) sold out within minutes.



hinch on 22 September 2020

Maybe scalpers :P Series S was available all day and X readily available from select retailers.

But anyways too early for these kind of threads and comes off as reactionary. Looking forward to coming back to this in a a year or two as see how this plays out.



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Angelv577 on 22 September 2020

I am not convinced xbox is gonna make that much of a difference next gen even with bethesda acquisition. Their best games that are console sellers like elder scrolls and fallout arent coming anytime soon. You could argue doom and wolfeinstein underperformed in sales. The only benefit I see here for MS is that with bethesda they can get to a higher amount of gamepass subscribers, higher attach rate to the already existing owners.



Soundwave on 22 September 2020
Angelv577 said:
I am not convinced xbox is gonna make that much of a difference next gen even with bethesda acquisition. Their best games that are console sellers like elder scrolls and fallout arent coming anytime soon. You could argue doom and wolfeinstein underperformed in sales. The only benefit I see here for MS is that with bethesda they can get to a higher amount of gamepass subscribers, higher attach rate to the already existing owners.

I think the North American market is definitely in play now for MS, the PS4 did not beat the XBox One by much here, I think XBox Series X/S has a good chance now of beating PS5 in NA. 

Europe will still likely go Sony, but they are playing with fire asking for sky high prices for a single game whereas MS will be offering Game Pass in Europe too with EA too (so FIFA) could shake things up. 



src on 22 September 2020

Not at all.

Playstation revenue is pretty much > Nintendo + MS

Sure MS with their desperate acquisition has gained ground, but I see this as only accelerating Playstation's acquisiotn strategy and unlike Xbox, PS is in the position to buy or partner with the largest franchises as well as JP publishers.



Saeko on 22 September 2020
xl-klaudkil said:
Nintendo and sony are market leaders, dont see that changing any time soon.

I think you right for the Next gen : Ps5/Switch pro/Xbox Series X,  But i really think for gen ps6 and go on, microsoft will take the lead ! even i don't like much microsoft and i'm a fan of sony. i really think young gamer coming and growing who not care about a box for game and like netflix etc will be very easy to go for the growing gamepass, and i really see that on my Mmo guild friend, a few gone to the gamepass since flight simulator already and with the portfolio of game they have growing, that will be big !

I want to add i hate premium services because there is so many, but for real after bethesda, i think microsoft choice the right way for the futur in 5+ years.



LivncA_Dis3 on 22 September 2020

that big acquisition doesn't change a thing,
nintendo and sony will still compete for the crown,
unless xbox wanna lose money and make zenimax family exclusive and play hardball it might tilt the console sales on their favour, but will lose a lot of money in the process