Nintendo and sony are market leaders, dont see that changing any time soon.
I think you right for the Next gen : Ps5/Switch pro/Xbox Series X, But i really think for gen ps6 and go on, microsoft will take the lead ! even i don't like much microsoft and i'm a fan of sony. i really think young gamer coming and growing who not care about a box for game and like netflix etc will be very easy to go for the growing gamepass, and i really see that on my Mmo guild friend, a few gone to the gamepass since flight simulator already and with the portfolio of game they have growing, that will be big !
I want to add i hate premium services because there is so many, but for real after bethesda, i think microsoft choice the right way for the futur in 5+ years.