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Forums - Microsoft Discussion - Tomshardware - Xbox Series X hot chips 2020 Deep Dive.

Otter on 19 August 2020
JRPGfan said:
Goatseye said:
I see a lot of posts running with Phil’s word: "Selling as many consoles as Sony or Nintendo is not our approach" to further their narrative that Microsoft won’t compete in the console space. That phrase should tell you that Microsoft is willing to take a hit on the hardware, to get gamers in their ecosystem.

You should also quote Phil, when he said they ”will not be out of position on power or price”. We have seen the first one realized, we’ll see their price strategy soon.

Isn't it the opposite?

If your willing to at all costs, sell your hardware, to sell the most you can, your also willing to drop prices and sell at a loss.

"selling as many consoles as sony or nintendo is not our approach"

Because that sounds like to me, they dont want to sell at a large losses, to move hardware.
They dont care about selling tons and tons of new hardware (at launch).
They care about keeping old hardware users, paying subscriptions services.

That's not really in his comment though. The only thing thats clear is that they want subscriptions, the way to get that may be to undercut prices on Xbox Hardware. Phil's point was really about moving away from comparing hardware sales numbers to Sony or looking at hardware sales as their bottom line. It doesn't give us any idea of how they will approach hardware pricing.



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LudicrousSpeed on 19 August 2020
goopy20 said:
LudicrousSpeed said:
Per usual the Xboss says something simple and logical and it’s twisted to suit agendas. When he says his division has a different approach and goal than the typical “we sold more consoles than Y or Z”, that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to TRY to sell more consoles than Y or Z. Of course they’re still going to TRY to offer a product that as many people as possible want to buy. And that can easily include taking a loss on hardware, because they’re going big on digital and services and can make up losses there.

The way some of you talk, when he says they don’t need to outsell the other consoles you make it seem like you actually think he wouldn’t mind being a distant third again. Why would anyone in his position feel that way? Why do people get weird when Papa Phil talks?

Like Phil said, if their main goal was to sell as many Series X boxes as possible, they would have focused on Series X exclusives that would showcase the hardware and boost console sales. Instead, they'll be releasing all their exclusives on Gamepass and design them so anyone with a pc and Xbox One can play them too. 

MS knows their approach will make Series X more of a luxury optional upgrade than a necessity. That's why they'll likely not market it as a mass market console but as a niche product with a niche price - for those who absolutely demand 4k/120fps and are willing to pay a premium for it (like the X1X). Like I've been saying for months, the 4Tflops Series S will be their mass market consoles and the official successor to the Xbox One S.

Will Series S sell big numbers? Who knows, but in the end it doesn't matter to MS if they'll become 3rd again as long as people subscribe to GP/Xcloud. They have the Microsoft Store pre-installed on practically every pc on the planet, so that's what they'll obviously want to tap into and grow subscription numbers. That, and getting GP/Xcloud on mobile phones, TV's and likely ps5 and Switch down the road if Series S sales tank. 

No one said anything about their main goal. Again, they can be big on services, and yet still want to sell a lot of hardware. They aren't mutually exclusive. You know what gets a lot of people in GamePass and xCloud? Selling a lot of next gen Xbox consoles. I don't care about which one sells the most between S or X. Also, good luck getting Sony or Nintendo to allow GamePass in their ecosystem. Look how long it took for Sony to allow EA Access and it's way less disruptive to Sony than GamePass would be.

Also maybe you missed the last showcase but most of their games they announced are skipping Xbone. Deliberately ignorant in regards to MS, per usual.



LudicrousSpeed on 19 August 2020
shikamaru317 said:
drkohler said:

Again, if you do not understand how mass manufacturing works, that is not my problem. Go check the spotmarket for ACTUAL prices if you don't believe the prices I quoted. The 500 GByte drives NEVER cost $37 for either Sony/MS (back in the heydays I knew a friend who worked in a hd manufacturing plant so I knew exactly to 5 cents precision the manufacturing price of basic hds). PS: Sony and MS are still selling the same hds now as in 2013, this might give you a clue just how large those orders were initially.

Again, what you imagine or doubt is completely irrelevant, and your absolutely ridiculous idea that the PS5 ssd is twice the price of the SX just shows you have no clue about mass manufacturing, the key word here is MASS (apart from the fact that you didn't understand the simple reasons I gave why the SX ssd is more expensive than the PS5 ssd). We are not talking about R&D costs, just the costs of manufacturing the damn things.

The difference of what people think about what it costs to manufacture something, and what the actual manufacturing costs are, are often staggering. (Happened to me too, I learnt that over many years, in the various mass manufacturing areas whenever I had insight into how much I thought something costs and how much it actually costs, which sometimes was borderline shocking).

Lastly, there is a difference between manufacturing costs and production costs. That hugely depends on the actual product and can range anywhere between factors 1 and 10. My very rough guess is a $30 ssd appears as a $50-$60 product in the final tally of all costs considered but indeed I have no clue as to how Sony/MS determines the production costs of the new consoles (which is another battlefield we don't want to go into).

$37 was from the IHS cost breakdowns for PS4 and XB1 in 2013. It is an estimate, but likely a pretty accurate one, IHS tends to know their stuff when doing their technology cost breakdowns. IHS were the ones who determined that PS3 was selling for about a $200 loss in 2006.

I'm well aware that there is a huge cost difference between a console maker buying parts in bulk right from the manufacturer and retail prices, but it's crazy to think that Sony could get PS5's SSD for like 15% of what a comparably speedy PC SSD would cost at retail, like this one: https://www.amazon.com/Seagate-Firecuda-Performance-Internal-ZP1000GM3A002/dp/B07ZPRMLJP/ref=sr_1_30?dchild=1&keywords=nvme+ssd&qid=1597816879&refinements=p_n_feature_three_browse-bin%3A6797521011&rnid=6797515011&s=pc&sr=1-30

That one has 5 GB/s read speed and 4.4 GB/s write speed, compared to Sony saying that their Samsung SSD has a raw throughput of 5.5 GB/s. I just can't see 15% of retail price happening, maybe 30-35% of retail price.

Will definitely be interested to see if IHS does a cost breakdown on Series X and PS5 on release like they did with PS4 and Xbox One, would love to see estimates of just how much MS and Sony paid for their consoles and if they sell them at a loss or not. 

You're wasting your time, bro. He knows a guy. How can IHS compete with that?



sales2099 on 19 August 2020
goopy20 said:
LudicrousSpeed said:
Per usual the Xboss says something simple and logical and it’s twisted to suit agendas. When he says his division has a different approach and goal than the typical “we sold more consoles than Y or Z”, that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to TRY to sell more consoles than Y or Z. Of course they’re still going to TRY to offer a product that as many people as possible want to buy. And that can easily include taking a loss on hardware, because they’re going big on digital and services and can make up losses there.

The way some of you talk, when he says they don’t need to outsell the other consoles you make it seem like you actually think he wouldn’t mind being a distant third again. Why would anyone in his position feel that way? Why do people get weird when Papa Phil talks?

Like Phil said, if their main goal was to sell as many Series X boxes as possible, they would have focused on Series X exclusives that would showcase the hardware and boost console sales. Instead, they'll be releasing all their exclusives on Gamepass and design them so anyone with a pc and Xbox One can play them too. 

MS knows their approach will make Series X more of a luxury optional upgrade than a necessity. That's why they'll likely not market it as a mass market console but as a niche product with a niche price - for those who absolutely demand 4k/120fps and are willing to pay a premium for it (like the X1X). Like I've been saying for months, the 4Tflops Series S will be their mass market consoles and the official successor to the Xbox One S.

Will Series S sell big numbers? Who knows, but in the end it doesn't matter to MS if they'll become 3rd again as long as people subscribe to GP/Xcloud. They have the Microsoft Store pre-installed on practically every pc on the planet, so that's what they'll obviously want to tap into and grow subscription numbers. That, and getting GP/Xcloud on mobile phones, TV's and likely ps5 and Switch down the road if Series S sales tank. 

You know Series X means getting the best 3rd party games too right? You know...95% of a consoles library? Nm being the only place for 1st party and Game Pass if you aren’t a Pc gamer. 

PC gamers act like everyone else owns a gaming rig and is near universally adopted by everyone (shrugs) 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

DonFerrari on 19 August 2020
shikamaru317 said:
drkohler said:

Again, if you do not understand how mass manufacturing works, that is not my problem. Go check the spotmarket for ACTUAL prices if you don't believe the prices I quoted. The 500 GByte drives NEVER cost $37 for either Sony/MS (back in the heydays I knew a friend who worked in a hd manufacturing plant so I knew exactly to 5 cents precision the manufacturing price of basic hds). PS: Sony and MS are still selling the same hds now as in 2013, this might give you a clue just how large those orders were initially.

Again, what you imagine or doubt is completely irrelevant, and your absolutely ridiculous idea that the PS5 ssd is twice the price of the SX just shows you have no clue about mass manufacturing, the key word here is MASS (apart from the fact that you didn't understand the simple reasons I gave why the SX ssd is more expensive than the PS5 ssd). We are not talking about R&D costs, just the costs of manufacturing the damn things.

The difference of what people think about what it costs to manufacture something, and what the actual manufacturing costs are, are often staggering. (Happened to me too, I learnt that over many years, in the various mass manufacturing areas whenever I had insight into how much I thought something costs and how much it actually costs, which sometimes was borderline shocking).

Lastly, there is a difference between manufacturing costs and production costs. That hugely depends on the actual product and can range anywhere between factors 1 and 10. My very rough guess is a $30 ssd appears as a $50-$60 product in the final tally of all costs considered but indeed I have no clue as to how Sony/MS determines the production costs of the new consoles (which is another battlefield we don't want to go into).

$37 was from the IHS cost breakdowns for PS4 and XB1 in 2013. It is an estimate, but likely a pretty accurate one, IHS tends to know their stuff when doing their technology cost breakdowns. IHS were the ones who determined that PS3 was selling for about a $200 loss in 2006.

I'm well aware that there is a huge cost difference between a console maker buying parts in bulk right from the manufacturer and retail prices, but it's crazy to think that Sony could get PS5's SSD for like 15% of what a comparably speedy PC SSD would cost at retail, like this one: https://www.amazon.com/Seagate-Firecuda-Performance-Internal-ZP1000GM3A002/dp/B07ZPRMLJP/ref=sr_1_30?dchild=1&keywords=nvme+ssd&qid=1597816879&refinements=p_n_feature_three_browse-bin%3A6797521011&rnid=6797515011&s=pc&sr=1-30

That one has 5 GB/s read speed and 4.4 GB/s write speed, compared to Sony saying that their Samsung SSD has a raw throughput of 5.5 GB/s. I just can't see 15% of retail price happening, maybe 30-35% of retail price.

Will definitely be interested to see if IHS does a cost breakdown on Series X and PS5 on release like they did with PS4 and Xbox One, would love to see estimates of just how much MS and Sony paid for their consoles and if they sell them at a loss or not. 

I guess you are mixing the cost of just the chips Sony buy for the SSD versus a manufactured SSD for market.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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goopy20 on 19 August 2020
LudicrousSpeed said:
goopy20 said:

Like Phil said, if their main goal was to sell as many Series X boxes as possible, they would have focused on Series X exclusives that would showcase the hardware and boost console sales. Instead, they'll be releasing all their exclusives on Gamepass and design them so anyone with a pc and Xbox One can play them too. 

MS knows their approach will make Series X more of a luxury optional upgrade than a necessity. That's why they'll likely not market it as a mass market console but as a niche product with a niche price - for those who absolutely demand 4k/120fps and are willing to pay a premium for it (like the X1X). Like I've been saying for months, the 4Tflops Series S will be their mass market consoles and the official successor to the Xbox One S.

Will Series S sell big numbers? Who knows, but in the end it doesn't matter to MS if they'll become 3rd again as long as people subscribe to GP/Xcloud. They have the Microsoft Store pre-installed on practically every pc on the planet, so that's what they'll obviously want to tap into and grow subscription numbers. That, and getting GP/Xcloud on mobile phones, TV's and likely ps5 and Switch down the road if Series S sales tank. 

No one said anything about their main goal. Again, they can be big on services, and yet still want to sell a lot of hardware. They aren't mutually exclusive. You know what gets a lot of people in GamePass and xCloud? Selling a lot of next gen Xbox consoles. I don't care about which one sells the most between S or X. Also, good luck getting Sony or Nintendo to allow GamePass in their ecosystem. Look how long it took for Sony to allow EA Access and it's way less disruptive to Sony than GamePass would be.

Also maybe you missed the last showcase but most of their games they announced are skipping Xbone. Deliberately ignorant in regards to MS, per usual.

I also don't completely understand why MS decided to make Series X so low priority. I don't know the exact numbers, but I always thought the bulk of the 10m GP subscribers are Xbox One gamers. Maybe its because they are thinking way bigger and are convinced that potentially reaching 2 billion gamers - who never owned a console before - and tapping into the pc gaming crowd will be far more lucrative than reaching a max 50 or 60m console gamers? 

MS is betting on a lot of different horses next gen, which is kinda smart. However, its a also bit of a double edged sword when it comes to getting people excited for Series X. And yes, I know MS showed a lot of games that'll skip Xbox One. But how far are those games off, and will we need next-gen like hardware to play them on pc? As far as I know, I'll be able to play all of those Series X console exclusives on my humble GTX1060. Also, GP on pc now actually seems to be better than on consoles, which should tell you something about MS's priorities.

Ahh well, I know I've been raving a lot in the last few months, but I've come to accept the whole situation for what it is. For me personally it's not that bad actually. GP is starting to grow on me with its AA quirky games, I don't have to upgrade my pc to play MS's exclusives, and I'll get me a ps5 for my next gen fix.  



goopy20 on 19 August 2020
sales2099 said:
goopy20 said:

Like Phil said, if their main goal was to sell as many Series X boxes as possible, they would have focused on Series X exclusives that would showcase the hardware and boost console sales. Instead, they'll be releasing all their exclusives on Gamepass and design them so anyone with a pc and Xbox One can play them too. 

MS knows their approach will make Series X more of a luxury optional upgrade than a necessity. That's why they'll likely not market it as a mass market console but as a niche product with a niche price - for those who absolutely demand 4k/120fps and are willing to pay a premium for it (like the X1X). Like I've been saying for months, the 4Tflops Series S will be their mass market consoles and the official successor to the Xbox One S.

Will Series S sell big numbers? Who knows, but in the end it doesn't matter to MS if they'll become 3rd again as long as people subscribe to GP/Xcloud. They have the Microsoft Store pre-installed on practically every pc on the planet, so that's what they'll obviously want to tap into and grow subscription numbers. That, and getting GP/Xcloud on mobile phones, TV's and likely ps5 and Switch down the road if Series S sales tank. 

You know Series X means getting the best 3rd party games too right? You know...95% of a consoles library? Nm being the only place for 1st party and Game Pass if you aren’t a Pc gamer. 

PC gamers act like everyone else owns a gaming rig and is near universally adopted by everyone (shrugs) 

Nope, MS is acting like gaming PCs are universally adopted. Why you think Gamepass on PC is starting to become better than Gamepass for console? They are focusing more on the kind of games that PC gamers are typically into than consoles gamers, like RTS games, GAAS games and Flightsim. 

We'll see about getting the best versions of 3rd party games. The thing is that the Series X and ps5 both have their strengths and weaknesses and it will be up to developers to choose which console they'll prioritize. Typically that means the one which has the biggest install base. I mean, if you're a developer would you be banking on MS's console when you hear Phil saying "It doesn't matter how many we'll sell" or Sony's console who are so confident in their product that they've doubled up on production? 

Last edited by goopy20 - on 19 August 2020

LudicrousSpeed on 19 August 2020

GamePass on PC vs console is such a subjective argument, it’s not even worth having.



goopy20 on 19 August 2020
LudicrousSpeed said:
GamePass on PC vs console is such a subjective argument, it’s not even worth having.

That is true, but just look at all of MS's 1st party games and the direction it's been going in 2020.

  • Gears Tactics
  • Flightsim
  • Minecraft Dungeons
  • Flightsim
  • Wasteland 3
  • Bard's tale remastered
  • Bleeding Edge
  • Ori 
  • Battletoads

Except for Ori, Bleeding Edge and Battletoads, those are all the type of games that typically don't do well on consoles. PC gamers love em, though, and that's why some of them didn't even get a console release yet.



KiigelHeart on 19 August 2020
goopy20 said:
LudicrousSpeed said:
GamePass on PC vs console is such a subjective argument, it’s not even worth having.

That is true, but just look at all of MS's 1st party games and the direction it's been going in 2020.

  • Gears Tactics
  • Flightsim
  • Minecraft Dungeons
  • Flightsim
  • Wasteland 3
  • Bard's tale remastered
  • Bleeding Edge
  • Ori 
  • Battletoads

Except for Ori, Bleeding Edge and Battletoads, those are all the type of games that typically don't do well on consoles. PC gamers love em, though, and that's why some of them didn't even get a console release yet.

You listed Flightsim twice and it's a game that was never on consoles afaik. 

Bard's Tale was on original Xbox. Wastelands 3 was in developement before MS bought inExile. Minecraft Dungeons is definitely a game for both PC and consoles. Microsoft has also made Halo Wars, a console friendly rts. XCOM is quite popular on consoles too.

You're running a very weak argument. Tactics and Flightsim are only games that didn't release on consoles yet but are on PC.

Hey, there's also Gears POP! so maybe MS is going all-in on mobile gaming eh?