Let's be honest here, 90% of the sales of the first 6-10M units re going to be from fans. basically people that were going to get whichever console they bought regardless barring any kinda monumental fuck ups.

Also, Lockhart is most likely also not going to have a disc drive. So its a $299 4TF digital console vs a $399 (most likely) 10TF digital console. Early adopters aren't stupid, and as the saying goes, whoever gets to 10M first wins.

I think SNY doesn't win as big as you suggest in the first scenario, since it seems the majority have been selecting PS5 over DE. With a $299 XBSS, assuming it has an optical drive, I think consumers will see a $499 PS5 and XBSX more so as the next step. That's a pretty big gap, and should lead to even higher XBSS sales.

In the second scenario, it should be a much closer race. Why buy XBSS for $299, when you could have XBSX for just $100 more? Way more performance and no compromises with the optical drive. Though how many will think why buy XBSX, when you could have PS5 for just $100 more? No that many I'd guess, based on the paper specs and marketing.

If we go by previous consoles, most users do not care for the differences. Microsoft's Xbox range have had the advantage in more performant hardware in a couple of generations (another if you count the One X). But this almost never translates to sales. The most important factor has been and will always be about the games and price. And Sony have at least one game that can sell the console at launch - Spiderman: Miles Morales. Xbox doesn't have any system sellers now that are exclusive at launch and nothing to really keep momentum after.

Another is marketshare and mind-share which Sony has on lock with Playstation, globally. Will be interesting though will be an uphill battle for Microsoft after all the blunders these last few months. I still think even with a much cheaper Series S out people are just willing to spend something more on a PS5, just because its either they are already invested in PS ecosystem and gamers are just not swayed on Xbox, as they were not with Xbox One.

What I find interesting is if your a Playstation gamer gamer who buys one or both secondary consoles for their first party what xbox SKU are you most likely to buy ?

PC. I have a somewhat competent gaming laptop that will run every XSX/S on 1080p at high settings, and in 2 years I am probably going to upgrade it. So there is really no reason for me to buy into their hardware ecosystem at the moment.

what are confirmed PS5 launch titles though?!

The confirmed ones so far:

-----Exclusives:
Astro's Playroom (pack in title)
Marvel's Spider-Man : Miles Morales
Deathloop
Jett: The Far Shore (indie)
Bugsnax
Godfall (hack'n'slash / looter)
Kena : Bridge of Spirits

----- Multiplats:
Observer: System Redux (new gameplay ans storylines)
Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2
Dirt 5
Madden NFL 21
NBA 2K21
Destiny 2: Beyond Light
Rainbow Six Siege
Outriders
Assassin's Creed Valhalla

Theres a few more, that are also 2020 like (but not sure if at launch or a month or two after):
Oddworld Soulstorm,  Sackboy : A big adventure.

There is also a event for the 20th of august, that is likely to have more games shown.

Rumors mention Sony holding back in showing 2 big AAA exclusvie games.
They could be SOCOM & Silent Hill (rumors). Probably not launch titles though.

If by the majority, you are referring to posts on forums and tech types on youtube? Then that will give you a very skewed data set to draw your conclusions from. As those represent the vocal minority.

With regard to the mass market, I think it will surprise how many people are willing to forego a disc drive if it means they save $100. And digital game sales representing more than 50% of game sales these days is indicative of this trend.

That second scenario I gave isn't something I believe is even possible. XSX can't be just $100 more than the XSS. Impossible. But that's the only way I see sony being in any sort of trouble.

The only real "ideal" scenario I truly see (unless sny fucks something up) is scenario one, where the XSS cost $299-$329, the PS5DE cost $399-$449 and the XSX/PS5 cost $499. But in that situation, the real fight is going to be between the PS5DE vs XSS (which is likely also going to be all digital). And in that case, the PS5 DE offers the far better value. Besides, I don't see a $70-$100 price difference between the XSS and PS5DE being enough to shift sales in favor of the XSS.

The biggest issue I see for the XSS is that it will look, and seem (even down to its packaging) like the "poor mans XSX". And that's because the only thing missing in the cheaper PS5 is a disc drive, wheres the XSS is butchered compared to the XSX. 

Funny enough, when rumors of Lockhart started making the rounds and before sony revealed the DE PS5, I actually sad that the worst thing that could happen for MS is if sony somehow priced the PS5 to be in the middle of the two MS SKUs. Granted I didn't anticipate a digital PS5, but that's exactly what sony seems to be doing anyway.

I think some are putting to much stock on sony getting greedy and overconfident and thinking they will have a crazzy price disparity. Or MS willing to eat a giant loss per box. Thouse kind of things just dont happen anymore. I expect both to eat a small loss. Like if it cost $520 to make, ship and all that they would round down to $500. Or the nearest $50.

But there are rumors going around that one is cheaper than the other. If MS console is the expensive one to make I do believe they will eat the loss to match the ps5, but I really dont think they will go beyond. If its sony thats the most expensive, I see them taking a small loss and they will most likely anounce first so then MS will have a chance to undercut them a bit.But I dont see a $100 cut like some are sugesting. I could even see the same price but bundle in gamepass for a few months.

discless consoles can be quite a success among parents. Parents will be able to pick up a cheaper new console for their little children that mostly will play the same multiplayer games over and over.

except for the parents that also play videogames. In many households today, a console is a family toy that the parent only give access to their little kids