The last real bump in the road is the launch of the New 3DS and New 3DS XL in three months, but that will slow down Switch's gains only temporarily.

No, it won't because in 2-3 months will be switch's holiday ;) which will be much stronger than the new 3ds boost

In three months it's October, so no holiday for Switch.

The Japanese holiday season goes from December to mid-January, so it's happening half a month later than in the other big video game markets of the world. But because Nintendo commonly has a global launch of their biggest holiday title in mid-November, their Japanese hardware sales already see a bump in November. Still, this year it's still unconfirmed when exactly Nintendo's biggest holiday title will release.

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PS4 vs PS3 in Japan Sales Comparison - PS4 Falls Further Behind in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned Japanese sales of the PlayStation 4 and the PlayStation 3.

PS4 Vs. PS3 Japan:

Gap change in latest month: 43,677 - PS3

Gap change over last 12 months: 180,481 - PS3

Total Lead: 69,992 – PS3

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 9,202,249

PlayStation 3 Total Sales: 9,272,241

July 2020 is the 78th month of the PlayStation 4 being on sale in Japan. The gap grew in favor of the PlayStation 3 by 43,677 units in the last month and in favor of the PlayStation 3 by 180,481 units in the last 12 months. The PlayStation 3 now leads by 69,992 units.

The PlayStation 3 launched in November 2006, while the PlayStation 4 launched in February 2014. This does mean the normal holiday periods and the Japanese Golden Week holiday for the two consoles do not lineup.

The 78th month for the PlayStation 4 is July 2020, while for the PlayStation 3 it is April 2013. The PlayStation 4 has sold 9.20 million units, while its predecessor the PlayStation 3 sold 9.27 million units.

The PS3 sold 10.47 million units lifetime in Japan. The PS4 is currently 1.27 million units behind the lifetime sales of the PS3.

With the sad state of PS4 sales in Japan right now, it won't be able to outdo its predecessor.

Considering the PS4 is gonna fall short despite getting even better Japanese support than the PS3 I fully expect the PS5 to decline further and end up at 8-9 million in Japan. Since it's gonna launch with the Switch at its peak and presumably be even more expensive than the PS4 I also expect it to have an even slower start than the PS4 did there.

That has been clear since a few months, but the next-best goal of hitting 10m lifetime is now out of the cards as well. If the PS5 launches this year in Japan, then even 9.5m lifetime will be a tough ask for the PS4.

Man, the state of PS4 sales in Japan is just sad.
It's not Xbox levels of pathetic... But the fact that I feel the need to bring up the Xbox numbers to compare is sad just in itself.
And this is a system had more software support (Mainline titles for Kingdom Hearts, Monster Hunter, Dragon Quest weren't on the PS3) and less competition in Japanese console market than its predecessor.
Really makes me worry about how the PS5 will perform over there.

Yeah PS4 has just cratered in Japan at this point, which means we're almost certainly looking at a constant decline in total sales there from PS2 to PS3 to PS4.

Unless they can pull a rabbit out of their hat with a breakout new IP or something, I expect PS5 to continue this downward trend.

The PS4 got its tail end cut short by the Switch.  For Generation 8 the Japanese chose either the 3DS or PS4 for their main system depending on whether they wanted a handheld or home system.  For Generation 9, almost all of Japan is choosing the Switch.  Handheld gamers are clearly choosing it as the successor to the 3DS, but home gamers are also choosing it as their next gen system.  Few will be buying the PS5.  So, when the Japanese look for the successor to the PS4, they choose the Switch.  The successor to the PS4 launched in 2017, and the result is that it cut off the tail to the PS4 in Japan.