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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts July 2020 Discussion Thread

yo33331 said:

Switch is selling very strong since october of last year so less than a year from now and you are already thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it ?
Switch is selling like crazy for the past 10 months because of the following reasons:

1. Some type of pricecut in the face of switch lite

2. The holiday periods as a whole are very strong for nintendo consoles

3. Corona virus boost

This is all for now, so a normal console life is around 7-8 years before it gets successor and around 10years total, and all of a sudden switch did have awesome last 10 months because of 2 major reasons and now you are thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it only because of less than 10% period of the lifetime of the console that is very strong ?
It need more time to prove, and before october of last year when the lite released switch was selling just okayish and normal for a 3 years console. (it was on par with 6 year console until october 2019 for the year). And this strong period may end now with the next gen consoles in november. This is the big difference between DS/Wii in 2008 and switch now. They continued to sell very strong for the next 2/3 years. However here now we have next gen after mere 3 months and this will surely get at least 30/40 % of the switch potential future sales per month if not more.

With corona winding down and no new games on the horizon and the next gen incoming I don't see switch selling so strong in the years after this. It could do okay though, maybe reachin 70M this year, and 100M within the next 2 years. And possibly something between 100-120M lifetime total. This is one realistic prediction. Of course it is not impossible to continue to sell very strong and to battle the PS4 for the lifetime sales however with all of those reasons that I said I don't think it will pass 120M lifetime. We will see.

You're forgetting the biggest reason; Animal Crossing, a true killer app which has opened up whole new demographics to the Switch.

It is true that their future release schedule looks bleak, but that could just be due to them being annoyingly secretive rather than genuinely having little left to release on Switch. They'll ride out the rest of this year on the strength of AC and unmet demand alone. It's next year that the lack of games will begin to become a concern, should it not be addressed by then.

And I very much doubt PS5/XSX will have any significant impact on Switch sales, they're such different products that they coexist rather than directly competing, as evidenced by Switch doing the same with PS4/Xbone.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:
yo33331 said:

Switch is selling very strong since october of last year so less than a year from now and you are already thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it ?
Switch is selling like crazy for the past 10 months because of the following reasons:

1. Some type of pricecut in the face of switch lite

2. The holiday periods as a whole are very strong for nintendo consoles

3. Corona virus boost

This is all for now, so a normal console life is around 7-8 years before it gets successor and around 10years total, and all of a sudden switch did have awesome last 10 months because of 2 major reasons and now you are thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it only because of less than 10% period of the lifetime of the console that is very strong ?
It need more time to prove, and before october of last year when the lite released switch was selling just okayish and normal for a 3 years console. (it was on par with 6 year console until october 2019 for the year). And this strong period may end now with the next gen consoles in november. This is the big difference between DS/Wii in 2008 and switch now. They continued to sell very strong for the next 2/3 years. However here now we have next gen after mere 3 months and this will surely get at least 30/40 % of the switch potential future sales per month if not more.

With corona winding down and no new games on the horizon and the next gen incoming I don't see switch selling so strong in the years after this. It could do okay though, maybe reachin 70M this year, and 100M within the next 2 years. And possibly something between 100-120M lifetime total. This is one realistic prediction. Of course it is not impossible to continue to sell very strong and to battle the PS4 for the lifetime sales however with all of those reasons that I said I don't think it will pass 120M lifetime. We will see.

You're forgetting the biggest reason; Animal Crossing, a true killer app which has opened up whole new demographics to the Switch.

It is true that their future release schedule looks bleak, but that could just be due to them being annoyingly secretive rather than genuinely having little left to release on Switch. They'll ride out the rest of this year on the strength of AC and unmet demand alone. It's next year that the lack of games will begin to become a concern, should it not be addressed by then.

And I very much doubt PS5/XSX will have any significant impact on Switch sales, they're such different products that they coexist rather than directly competing, as evidenced by Switch doing the same with PS4/Xbone.

I agree. And yes I forget Animal Crossing, it also boost the boosted sales

As for the next gen well it is coexisting because xbox is very weak and PS4 is in its dead bed. When PS4 was selling stronger at 2017 and 2018, switch was selling just okayish .. with around 150-200K weekly.

So I think they will slow the switch sales. Also other point with the next gen is that the 3rd party games will now be made for not 1 but 2 technicall generations ahead of switch so switch will not be getting so good 3rd party support in the future as it is now like witcher 3 or doom or other PS4/XB1 games.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

You're forgetting the biggest reason; Animal Crossing, a true killer app which has opened up whole new demographics to the Switch.

It is true that their future release schedule looks bleak, but that could just be due to them being annoyingly secretive rather than genuinely having little left to release on Switch. They'll ride out the rest of this year on the strength of AC and unmet demand alone. It's next year that the lack of games will begin to become a concern, should it not be addressed by then.

And I very much doubt PS5/XSX will have any significant impact on Switch sales, they're such different products that they coexist rather than directly competing, as evidenced by Switch doing the same with PS4/Xbone.

I agree. And yes I forget Animal Crossing, it also boost the boosted sales

As for the next gen well it is coexisting because xbox is very weak and PS4 is in its dead bed. When PS4 was selling stronger at 2017 and 2018, switch was selling just okayish .. with around 150-200K weekly.

So I think they will slow the switch sales. Also other point with the next gen is that the 3rd party games will now be made for not 1 but 2 technicall generations ahead of switch so switch will not be getting so good 3rd party support in the future as it is now like witcher 3 or doom or other PS4/XB1 games.

Switch sales in 2017-2018 weren't suppressed by PS4, it simply hadn't amassed a big library of evergreens yet; as more games arrived, its sales increased. And AAA third party games aren't what is selling Switch so losing those won't matter.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Be sure to share the article here.

Switch vs PS4 Sales Comparison - Switch Leads Grows in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the PlayStation 4.

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 535,477 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 7,184,891 - Switch

Total Lead: 4,476,450 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 62,078,875

PS4 Total Sales: 57,602,425

July 2020 is the 41st month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 535,477 units when compared to the PlayStation 4 during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months, the Switch has outsold the PlayStation 4 by 7.18 million units. The Switch is currently ahead of the PlayStation 4 by 4.48 million units.

The PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013, while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 41st month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is July 2020, while for the PlayStation 4 it is March 2017. The Switch has sold 62.08 million units, while the PlayStation 4 sold 57.60 million units during the same timeframe. The PlayStation 4 did not reach current Switch sales until month 45.

The PlayStation 4 has sold 112.50 million units through June 2020. The Nintendo Switch is currently 50.42 million units behind the lifetime sales of the PlayStation 4.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd said:

Be sure to share the article here.

Switch vs PS4 Sales Comparison - Switch Leads Grows in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the PlayStation 4.

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 535,477 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 7,184,891 - Switch

Total Lead: 4,476,450 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 62,078,875

PS4 Total Sales: 57,602,425

July 2020 is the 41st month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 535,477 units when compared to the PlayStation 4 during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months, the Switch has outsold the PlayStation 4 by 7.18 million units. The Switch is currently ahead of the PlayStation 4 by 4.48 million units.

The PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013, while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 41st month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is July 2020, while for the PlayStation 4 it is March 2017. The Switch has sold 62.08 million units, while the PlayStation 4 sold 57.60 million units during the same timeframe. The PlayStation 4 did not reach current Switch sales until month 45.

The PlayStation 4 has sold 112.50 million units through June 2020. The Nintendo Switch is currently 50.42 million units behind the lifetime sales of the PlayStation 4.

I always kinda expected the back-and-forth Double Helix Dance to continue for PS4 and Switch for years to come until eventually PS4 pulled ahead due to longer legs.

If Nintendo can just kick their habit of abandoning their consoles too early, I'm no longer so sure PS4 is guaranteed to win in the end.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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It is becoming more interesting.. I still think the next gen will somewhat reflect on the sales of switch.. we will find out very soon ..



curl-6 said:

I always kinda expected the back-and-forth Double Helix Dance to continue for PS4 and Switch for years to come until eventually PS4 pulled ahead due to longer legs.

If Nintendo can just kick their habit of abandoning their consoles too early, I'm no longer so sure PS4 is guaranteed to win in the end.

What do you mean by habit? It's basically only the Wii (without a doubt in all aspects) and the DS (hardware-side only, namely the steep 3DS price drop which cut into the legs of the DS) where you can talk about too early. Their other consoles were supported in sufficient manner, and in the latest example of the 3DS, beyond the point of sufficient.

By the way, how's your PS4 lifetime sales expectation of minimum 130m going? Sony is now forecasting an LTD of a good 119m by March 2021, with only 9m PS4 consoles expected to be shipped during this fiscal year.

It's now looking even more likely than before that the 8th gen console with the highest sales after the launch of its successor will be the 3DS.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

I always kinda expected the back-and-forth Double Helix Dance to continue for PS4 and Switch for years to come until eventually PS4 pulled ahead due to longer legs.

If Nintendo can just kick their habit of abandoning their consoles too early, I'm no longer so sure PS4 is guaranteed to win in the end.

What do you mean by habit? It's basically only the Wii (without a doubt in all aspects) and the DS (hardware-side only, namely the steep 3DS price drop which cut into the legs of the DS) where you can talk about too early. Their other consoles were supported in sufficient manner, and in the latest example of the 3DS, beyond the point of sufficient.

By the way, how's your PS4 lifetime sales expectation of minimum 130m going? Sony is now forecasting an LTD of a good 119m by March 2021, with only 9m PS4 consoles expected to be shipped during this fiscal year.

It's now looking even more likely than before that the 8th gen console with the highest sales after the launch of its successor will be the 3DS.

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 16 August 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

What do you mean by habit? It's basically only the Wii (without a doubt in all aspects) and the DS (hardware-side only, namely the steep 3DS price drop which cut into the legs of the DS) where you can talk about too early. Their other consoles were supported in sufficient manner, and in the latest example of the 3DS, beyond the point of sufficient.

By the way, how's your PS4 lifetime sales expectation of minimum 130m going? Sony is now forecasting an LTD of a good 119m by March 2021, with only 9m PS4 consoles expected to be shipped during this fiscal year.

It's now looking even more likely than before that the 8th gen console with the highest sales after the launch of its successor will be the 3DS.

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

They shipped only 1.9M in the last quarter.

Last edited by Marth - on 16 August 2020

Marth said:
curl-6 said:

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

They shipped only 1.9M in the last quarter.

That's weird, I could've sworn they reported 108 million and change at the end of March and then 112 million and change just this month. My bad.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.