By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts July 2020 Discussion Thread

curl-6 said:

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

~4m combines Q4 of the previous fiscal year with Q1 of the current fiscal year. The PS4 was at 108m-something, but that was by December 2019.

Also, Sony did forego to make a forecast when the current fiscal year started, so the 9m forecast was first made in August when they reported their Q1 results. So that's 9m after the COVID-19 boost has come and gone, as opposed to Nintendo's 19m forecast which was made during the time of uncertainty. Doesn't look to me as Sony lowballing their forecast, but rather a number that will be very close to what they'll actually produce during the fiscal year, and there's no reason for them to increase said production. In other words, an unforeseen surge in demand wouldn't be addressed by Sony and by next fiscal year they'll focus heavily on the PS5, so the PS4 is set to have a short tail.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Around the Network
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

~4m combines Q4 of the previous fiscal year with Q1 of the current fiscal year. The PS4 was at 108m-something, but that was by December 2019.

Also, Sony did forego to make a forecast when the current fiscal year started, so the 9m forecast was first made in August when they reported their Q1 results. So that's 9m after the COVID-19 boost has come and gone, as opposed to Nintendo's 19m forecast which was made during the time of uncertainty. Doesn't look to me as Sony lowballing their forecast, but rather a number that will be very close to what they'll actually produce during the fiscal year, and there's no reason for them to increase said production. In other words, an unforeseen surge in demand wouldn't be addressed by Sony and by next fiscal year they'll focus heavily on the PS5, so the PS4 is set to have a short tail.

Ah, so it's 4m in the last 2 quarters, and 9m forecast for the FY as of this month then? My mistake, that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

Depending on how they handle it post-PS5, maybe it'll fall well short of what I expected.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Be sure to share the article here.

PS4 vs DS Sales Comparison - PS4 Closes the Gap in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the PlayStation 4 and the Nintendo DS.

PlayStation 4 Vs. DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 193,579 – PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 2,681,143 – DS

Total Lead: 33,598,585 - DS

PlayStation 4 Total Sales: 112,502,188

DS Total Sales: 146,100,773

July 2020 is the 81st month that the PlayStation 4 has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the PlayStation 4 when compared with the Nintendo DS during the same timeframe by 193,579 units. However, the Nintendo DS has grown its lead over the PlayStation 4 in the last 12 months by 2.68 million units. The Nintendo DS currently leads by 33.60 million units.

The DS launched in November 2004 in North America, December 2004 in Japan, and March 2005 in Europe, while the PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do lineup.

The 81st month on sale for the PlayStation 4 is July 2020, while for the Nintendo DS it is July 2011. The PlayStation 4 has sold 112.50 million units, while the Nintendo DS sold 146.10 million units during the same timeframe.

The Nintendo DS ended up selling 154.02 million units lifetime. The PlayStation 4 is currently 41.52 million units behind the lifetime sales of the Nintendo DS.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

The PS4 can catch up by a few million and reduce the current gap of 33.6m to under 30m by the end of its life. The DS was already succeeded by the 3DS at this point and the upcoming 3DS price cut in August cuts further into the legs of the DS. After the price cut, the backwards compatible 3DS was almost the same price as a DSi.

The PS4 has 125- 128m units in it, so it will finish 26-29m behind the DS's lifetime sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

The PS5 will have most of the PS4 games playable and i'm sure that will come into play starting this fall.
Switch should have a 13+ million lead over the PS4 after the holidays, which is insane. I think the PS4 will die a little before 125 millions, could have done 130+ but sony doesn't seem like they want to push it no more. But eh, Nintendo has a habit of doing things like this so it's nothing new. DS and Gameboy could have done more but they cut their legs short.
Switch will blow past the 100 million mark and at least end up in the 120 million range i think.



Around the Network

Yeah PS4 will narrow the gap by the time it's discontinued, but it won't come close to actually matching DS's total.

Sony by their own admission want to move on to PS5 as fast as possible, and who can blame them when it represents their future for the next 7 years.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

That said, credit where credit is due, just coming within a few dozen million of DS's total is still an impressive achievement.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Be sure to share the article here.

Switch vs 3DS in Japan Sales Comparison – Switch Continues to Close the Gap in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned Japanese sales of the Nintendo Switch and Nintendo 3DS.

Switch Vs. 3DS Japan:

Gap change in latest month: 361,302 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,855,818 - Switch

Total Lead: 1,274,081 - 3DS

Switch Total Sales: 14,541,971

3DS Total Sales: 15,816,052

July 2020 is the 41st month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for in Japan. During the latest month, the Switch closed the gap to the 3DS by 361,302 units. In the last 12 months, the Switch has outsold the 3DS by 1.86 million units. The 3DS is currently ahead of the Switch by 1.17 million units.

The 3DS launched in February 2011 in Japan and the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017. This does mean the normal holiday periods and the Japanese Golden Week holiday for the two consoles are off by one month.

The 41st month for the Switch is July 2020, while for the 3DS it is June 2014. The Switch has sold 14.54 million units, while the 3DS sold 15.82 million units during the same timeframe.

The 3DS has sold 24.62 million units lifetime in Japan through May 2020. The Switch is currently 10.08 million units behind the lifetime sales of the 3DS.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

After Switch has passed the 3DS in Japan, the only gen 8 vs. gen 9 comparison left between Nintendo consoles is 3DS + Wii U vs. Switch in Japan. Switch will take that one too, so we can look forward to a clean sweep.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Yeah Switch will out-leg the 3DS in Japan. By this point in its life 3DS was dirt cheap and had had multiple revisions.

Switch's gain in the last year is greater than 3DS's total lead, and we're coming up to what could be Switch's biggest holiday season for sales.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.