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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts July 2020 Discussion Thread

Wow, the March and May for Switch this year is higher than any of the XB1 holidays (at least on the chart).



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Wii's last really big holiday was month 37-38 which is already on the chart.  They have another decent holiday on months 49-50, but not nearly as big as their earlier holidays.  Meanwhile Switch is set up to have a gigantic year all of this year.  It should pass the Wii during this year's holidays and then depending on how it does it may stay permanently ahead (or maybe Wii will regain a small temporary lead around month 49-50).



Yeah the switch has this in the bag at this point, even if it's future is as bleak as it looks, it should still coast passed on momentum alone.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

Switch goes straight to Ludicrous speed while the Wii's Hyperdrive starts to fail



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Switch goes straight to Ludicrous speed while the Wii's Hyperdrive starts to fail

That first Switch vs 3DS chart, the "Switch lead" chart, really does look like a cliff.  But it's a cliff going up instead of down.



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trunkswd said:

Be sure to share the article here.

Switch vs 3DS Sales Comparison - Switch Lead Tops 19 Million in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo 3DS.

Switch Vs. 3DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 1,570,782 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 13,545,980 - Switch

Total Lead: 19,011,754 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 62,078,875

3DS Total Sales: 43,067,121

July 2020 is the 41st month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 1.57 million units when compared to the 3DS during the same timeframe and by 13.55 million units in favor of the Switch in the last 12 months. The Switch is currently ahead of the 3DS by 19.01 million units.

The 3DS launched in February 2011 (however, 3DS sales have been aligned to March 2011, since it only launched at the end of February in Japan), while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. This does mean the holidays for the two platforms do lineup.

The 41st month for the Nintendo Switch is July 2020 and for the Nintendo 3DS it is July 2014. The Switch has sold 62.08 million units, while the 3DS sold 43.07 million units during the same timeframe.

The Nintendo 3DS has sold 75.76 million units to date. The Nintendo Switch is currently 13.68 million units behind the lifetime sales of the 3DS.

This third graph more than any so far makes me laugh remembering all the people who insisted, some of them up to 2019, that Switch would sell "on par with 3DS".



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

Marth said:
curl-6 said:

This third graph more than any so far makes me laugh remembering all the people who insisted, some of them up to 2019, that Switch would sell "on par with 3DS".

I remember enough people back shortly after Switch launch: "Its the successor to both WiiU and 3DS so it has to beat both combined and its not doing that"

Have not heard from that crowd for a while lol

I remember that particular group very well. Some of them carried on with that argument as recently as 2019.

It was always something; "they've used all their big IPs in their first year so it's all downhill from here", then "2018 will be its peak year", then "people will lose interest once next gen arrives".



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
Marth said:

I remember enough people back shortly after Switch launch: "Its the successor to both WiiU and 3DS so it has to beat both combined and its not doing that"

Have not heard from that crowd for a while lol

I remember that particular group very well. Some of them carried on with that argument as recently as 2019.

It was always something; "they've used all their big IPs in their first year so it's all downhill from here", then "2018 will be its peak year", then "people will lose interest once next gen arrives".

We need to bring back that Wii U blackboard, but instead of ...will save the Wii U, it reads ...will stop the Switch



trunkswd said:

Be sure to share the article here.

Switch vs DS Sales Comparison - Switch Sells More in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the Nintendo DS.

Switch Vs. DS Global:

Gap change in latest month: 85,552 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 3,495,513 - DS

Total Lead: 7,336,152 - DS

Switch Total Sales: 62,078,875

DS Total Sales: 69,415,027

July 2020 is the 41st month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 85,552 units when compared to the DS during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months the DS has outsold the Switch by 3.50 million units. The DS is ahead of the Switch by 7.34 million units.

The DS launched in November 2004 in North America, December 2004 in Japan, and March 2005 in Europe, while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 41st month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is July 2020, while for the DS it is March 2008. The Switch has sold 52.08 million units, while the DS sold 69.42 million units during the same timeframe.

The Nintendo DS sold 154.02 million units lifetime. The Nintendo Switch is currently 91.94 million units behind the lifetime sales of the DS.

The fact that the Switch is somehow outpacing the prime DS at this time is insane. I remember everyone only a few months ago thought that once this year comes the Switch vs DS fight would be over with the DS killing the Switch in its prime. However, the Switch is proving all of us wrong. We'll have to see if the Switch keeps this up.



yo33331 said:

Switch is selling very strong since october of last year so less than a year from now and you are already thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it ?
Switch is selling like crazy for the past 10 months because of the following reasons:

1. Some type of pricecut in the face of switch lite

2. The holiday periods as a whole are very strong for nintendo consoles

3. Corona virus boost

This is all for now, so a normal console life is around 7-8 years before it gets successor and around 10years total, and all of a sudden switch did have awesome last 10 months because of 2 major reasons and now you are thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it only because of less than 10% period of the lifetime of the console that is very strong ?
It need more time to prove, and before october of last year when the lite released switch was selling just okayish and normal for a 3 years console. (it was on par with 6 year console until october 2019 for the year). And this strong period may end now with the next gen consoles in november. This is the big difference between DS/Wii in 2008 and switch now. They continued to sell very strong for the next 2/3 years. However here now we have next gen after mere 3 months and this will surely get at least 30/40 % of the switch potential future sales per month if not more.

With corona winding down and no new games on the horizon and the next gen incoming I don't see switch selling so strong in the years after this. It could do okay though, maybe reachin 70M this year, and 100M within the next 2 years. And possibly something between 100-120M lifetime total. This is one realistic prediction. Of course it is not impossible to continue to sell very strong and to battle the PS4 for the lifetime sales however with all of those reasons that I said I don't think it will pass 120M lifetime. We will see.

You're forgetting the biggest reason; Animal Crossing, a true killer app which has opened up whole new demographics to the Switch.

It is true that their future release schedule looks bleak, but that could just be due to them being annoyingly secretive rather than genuinely having little left to release on Switch. They'll ride out the rest of this year on the strength of AC and unmet demand alone. It's next year that the lack of games will begin to become a concern, should it not be addressed by then.

And I very much doubt PS5/XSX will have any significant impact on Switch sales, they're such different products that they coexist rather than directly competing, as evidenced by Switch doing the same with PS4/Xbone.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)