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curl-6 on 12 August 2020
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yo33331 said:

Switch is selling very strong since october of last year so less than a year from now and you are already thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it ?
Switch is selling like crazy for the past 10 months because of the following reasons:

1. Some type of pricecut in the face of switch lite

2. The holiday periods as a whole are very strong for nintendo consoles

3. Corona virus boost

This is all for now, so a normal console life is around 7-8 years before it gets successor and around 10years total, and all of a sudden switch did have awesome last 10 months because of 2 major reasons and now you are thinking it will beat the DS or it will come close to it only because of less than 10% period of the lifetime of the console that is very strong ?
It need more time to prove, and before october of last year when the lite released switch was selling just okayish and normal for a 3 years console. (it was on par with 6 year console until october 2019 for the year). And this strong period may end now with the next gen consoles in november. This is the big difference between DS/Wii in 2008 and switch now. They continued to sell very strong for the next 2/3 years. However here now we have next gen after mere 3 months and this will surely get at least 30/40 % of the switch potential future sales per month if not more.

With corona winding down and no new games on the horizon and the next gen incoming I don't see switch selling so strong in the years after this. It could do okay though, maybe reachin 70M this year, and 100M within the next 2 years. And possibly something between 100-120M lifetime total. This is one realistic prediction. Of course it is not impossible to continue to sell very strong and to battle the PS4 for the lifetime sales however with all of those reasons that I said I don't think it will pass 120M lifetime. We will see.

You're forgetting the biggest reason; Animal Crossing, a true killer app which has opened up whole new demographics to the Switch.

It is true that their future release schedule looks bleak, but that could just be due to them being annoyingly secretive rather than genuinely having little left to release on Switch. They'll ride out the rest of this year on the strength of AC and unmet demand alone. It's next year that the lack of games will begin to become a concern, should it not be addressed by then.

And I very much doubt PS5/XSX will have any significant impact on Switch sales, they're such different products that they coexist rather than directly competing, as evidenced by Switch doing the same with PS4/Xbone.