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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Gap Charts July 2020 Discussion Thread

curl-6 on 13 August 2020
yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

You're forgetting the biggest reason; Animal Crossing, a true killer app which has opened up whole new demographics to the Switch.

It is true that their future release schedule looks bleak, but that could just be due to them being annoyingly secretive rather than genuinely having little left to release on Switch. They'll ride out the rest of this year on the strength of AC and unmet demand alone. It's next year that the lack of games will begin to become a concern, should it not be addressed by then.

And I very much doubt PS5/XSX will have any significant impact on Switch sales, they're such different products that they coexist rather than directly competing, as evidenced by Switch doing the same with PS4/Xbone.

I agree. And yes I forget Animal Crossing, it also boost the boosted sales

As for the next gen well it is coexisting because xbox is very weak and PS4 is in its dead bed. When PS4 was selling stronger at 2017 and 2018, switch was selling just okayish .. with around 150-200K weekly.

So I think they will slow the switch sales. Also other point with the next gen is that the 3rd party games will now be made for not 1 but 2 technicall generations ahead of switch so switch will not be getting so good 3rd party support in the future as it is now like witcher 3 or doom or other PS4/XB1 games.

Switch sales in 2017-2018 weren't suppressed by PS4, it simply hadn't amassed a big library of evergreens yet; as more games arrived, its sales increased. And AAA third party games aren't what is selling Switch so losing those won't matter.



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curl-6 on 15 August 2020
trunkswd said:

Be sure to share the article here.

Switch vs PS4 Sales Comparison - Switch Leads Grows in July 2020

This monthly series compares the aligned worldwide sales of the Nintendo Switch and the PlayStation 4.

Switch Vs. PS4 Global:

Gap change in latest month: 535,477 - Switch

Gap change over last 12 months: 7,184,891 - Switch

Total Lead: 4,476,450 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 62,078,875

PS4 Total Sales: 57,602,425

July 2020 is the 41st month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap grew in favor of the Switch by 535,477 units when compared to the PlayStation 4 during the same timeframe. In the last 12 months, the Switch has outsold the PlayStation 4 by 7.18 million units. The Switch is currently ahead of the PlayStation 4 by 4.48 million units.

The PlayStation 4 launched in November 2013, while the Nintendo Switch launched worldwide in March 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

The 41st month on sale for the Nintendo Switch is July 2020, while for the PlayStation 4 it is March 2017. The Switch has sold 62.08 million units, while the PlayStation 4 sold 57.60 million units during the same timeframe. The PlayStation 4 did not reach current Switch sales until month 45.

The PlayStation 4 has sold 112.50 million units through June 2020. The Nintendo Switch is currently 50.42 million units behind the lifetime sales of the PlayStation 4.

I always kinda expected the back-and-forth Double Helix Dance to continue for PS4 and Switch for years to come until eventually PS4 pulled ahead due to longer legs.

If Nintendo can just kick their habit of abandoning their consoles too early, I'm no longer so sure PS4 is guaranteed to win in the end.



curl-6 on 16 August 2020
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

I always kinda expected the back-and-forth Double Helix Dance to continue for PS4 and Switch for years to come until eventually PS4 pulled ahead due to longer legs.

If Nintendo can just kick their habit of abandoning their consoles too early, I'm no longer so sure PS4 is guaranteed to win in the end.

What do you mean by habit? It's basically only the Wii (without a doubt in all aspects) and the DS (hardware-side only, namely the steep 3DS price drop which cut into the legs of the DS) where you can talk about too early. Their other consoles were supported in sufficient manner, and in the latest example of the 3DS, beyond the point of sufficient.

By the way, how's your PS4 lifetime sales expectation of minimum 130m going? Sony is now forecasting an LTD of a good 119m by March 2021, with only 9m PS4 consoles expected to be shipped during this fiscal year.

It's now looking even more likely than before that the 8th gen console with the highest sales after the launch of its successor will be the 3DS.

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 16 August 2020

curl-6 on 16 August 2020
Marth said:
curl-6 said:

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

They shipped only 1.9M in the last quarter.

That's weird, I could've sworn they reported 108 million and change at the end of March and then 112 million and change just this month. My bad.



curl-6 on 17 August 2020
RolStoppable said:
curl-6 said:

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

~4m combines Q4 of the previous fiscal year with Q1 of the current fiscal year. The PS4 was at 108m-something, but that was by December 2019.

Also, Sony did forego to make a forecast when the current fiscal year started, so the 9m forecast was first made in August when they reported their Q1 results. So that's 9m after the COVID-19 boost has come and gone, as opposed to Nintendo's 19m forecast which was made during the time of uncertainty. Doesn't look to me as Sony lowballing their forecast, but rather a number that will be very close to what they'll actually produce during the fiscal year, and there's no reason for them to increase said production. In other words, an unforeseen surge in demand wouldn't be addressed by Sony and by next fiscal year they'll focus heavily on the PS5, so the PS4 is set to have a short tail.

Ah, so it's 4m in the last 2 quarters, and 9m forecast for the FY as of this month then? My mistake, that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

Depending on how they handle it post-PS5, maybe it'll fall well short of what I expected.



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xMetroid on 17 August 2020

The PS5 will have most of the PS4 games playable and i'm sure that will come into play starting this fall.
Switch should have a 13+ million lead over the PS4 after the holidays, which is insane. I think the PS4 will die a little before 125 millions, could have done 130+ but sony doesn't seem like they want to push it no more. But eh, Nintendo has a habit of doing things like this so it's nothing new. DS and Gameboy could have done more but they cut their legs short.
Switch will blow past the 100 million mark and at least end up in the 120 million range i think.



curl-6 on 17 August 2020

Yeah PS4 will narrow the gap by the time it's discontinued, but it won't come close to actually matching DS's total.

Sony by their own admission want to move on to PS5 as fast as possible, and who can blame them when it represents their future for the next 7 years.



curl-6 on 17 August 2020

That said, credit where credit is due, just coming within a few dozen million of DS's total is still an impressive achievement.



curl-6 on 18 August 2020

Yeah Switch will out-leg the 3DS in Japan. By this point in its life 3DS was dirt cheap and had had multiple revisions.

Switch's gain in the last year is greater than 3DS's total lead, and we're coming up to what could be Switch's biggest holiday season for sales.



TruckOSaurus on 19 August 2020

With the sad state of PS4 sales in Japan right now, it won't be able to outdo its predecessor.



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