VGChartz Gap Charts July 2020 Discussion Thread

[curl-6]

RolStoppable said:

curl-6 said:

I'm sticking with my 130 million estimate for now. Sony's 9 million forecast seems like a hell of a lowball seeing as they sold what, 4 million in the last reported quarter? I mean, Nintendo is currently forecasting 19 million for the FY depsite that being absurdly low. Companies lowball sometimes to err on the side of caution. Better to adjust up than down after all.

~4m combines Q4 of the previous fiscal year with Q1 of the current fiscal year. The PS4 was at 108m-something, but that was by December 2019.

Also, Sony did forego to make a forecast when the current fiscal year started, so the 9m forecast was first made in August when they reported their Q1 results. So that's 9m after the COVID-19 boost has come and gone, as opposed to Nintendo's 19m forecast which was made during the time of uncertainty. Doesn't look to me as Sony lowballing their forecast, but rather a number that will be very close to what they'll actually produce during the fiscal year, and there's no reason for them to increase said production. In other words, an unforeseen surge in demand wouldn't be addressed by Sony and by next fiscal year they'll focus heavily on the PS5, so the PS4 is set to have a short tail.

Ah, so it's 4m in the last 2 quarters, and 9m forecast for the FY as of this month then? My mistake, that's a whole 'nother kettle of fish.

Depending on how they handle it post-PS5, maybe it'll fall well short of what I expected.