Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2020 (Jul 13 - Jul 19)

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RolStoppable said:
Chicho said:

Week 35 at 90 should be close maybe higher for 2020 week 38 at 239 will be the hard one. Its crazy that switch will almost certainly cross 3M in japan next week. Last year it took until week 46 to cross 3M, that's 16 week difference. Was it you hat asked is it possible for switch to sell over 5M in japan this year? Because now i don't just think is possible. I think is highly likely. 

That sounds like a tbone51 thread.

Ever since the delay of Animal Crossing into the year 2020, I was sure that 2019 wouldn't be Switch's peak year. What's special about Animal Crossing is that it has a much bigger pull for females than any other Nintendo game, so it comes with large hardware selling potential. I've posted the year over year comparison every week this year and since the beginning the biggest point of interest was whether or not 2020 can beat 2019 and what kind of sales progression it will take. In short: 2020 had to build a sizeable lead (a few hundred thousand) until September to be prepared for the Lite launch of 2019.

2020 was on track for that through the first 11 weeks, but then Animal Crossing (and subsequent corona lockdowns) led to such a massive hardware boost that it became a question of by how much will 2020 beat 2019. 2019 managed 4.5m, 2020 will be 5.0m minimum. Right now 5.5m looks like the floor and that's without knowing Nintendo's first party lineup for the remaining five months. If it's at least decent, then 6.0m is in the cards.

I think even 5.5m is too low for the floor.  Look at YTD sales at week 26 and double them you get 5.34m.  It's a pretty safe bet that Switch will sell more in the second half of the year than the first.  They don't need to release anything terribly impressive to get to 6m.  And if they have a really good holiday lineup, then it could be closer to 7m.

All of this assumes that they have enough supply to sell that much of course.  Going from 4.5m to 7m would be a hell of an upgrade in production.



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We can look to the Lite as to how they could scale production to the levels needed to meet demand in Japan. These are separate production lines and they can scale the less complex one faster. 

They shipped 5M Lites in it's first two-quarters WW, and over 1.2M of those were sold in Japan.

Right now according to Famitsu, Lite is at 1.36M for the year compared to 1.56M for the OG Switch. At the same time last year OG Switch was 1.66M, so that's just a 100K difference. Even if we don't see a substantial increase in OG Switch sales until the end of the year(let's say they end up at 4M), the chance for high growth and 7M results will be decided if they can scale up Lite production line and see the increase from there. I don't think 3M for the year for the Lite is that difficult to achieve.

When we are talking about increased production this is one thing to really keep in mind, OG Switch Production could remain 20M for the year but Nintendo could scale Lite production to 10M and ship 1/3 of that to Japan to ensure there is ample supply there for the holidays. In that case, we would be looking at a Historic Holiday ahead, and a lot of companies that have a decent lineup for the Switch this year will be able to actually capitalize on this. 



xMetroid said:
Paper Mario will most likely have better legs than Got tho, PS4 games are always heavily frontloaded in Japan. Dunno if it will manage to outsell it.

I wouldnt be surprised. Even ClubHouse Games is doing better than TLOU2. 



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Jranation said:
xMetroid said:
Paper Mario will most likely have better legs than Got tho, PS4 games are always heavily frontloaded in Japan. Dunno if it will manage to outsell it.

I wouldnt be surprised. Even ClubHouse Games is doing better than TLOU2. 

Omg you're right, didn't notice. Damn lmao



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Switch to PS4 hardware ratio of 25:1 this week.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

SpokenTruth said:
TruckOSaurus said:
Paper Mario seems on the low end of what the series usually does (well apart from Color Splash) but still a decent opening week. Switch HW sales continue to impress. PS4 HW depressingly low despite a terrific opening for Ghost of Tsushima.

It's like the hardware and software for each console flipped.

Switch - low side software but huge hardware.
PS4 - high side software but minimal hardware.

Switch - 288 k software and 100+k hardware

Ps4 - 240 k software and 5k hardware

Switch - ok side software and huge hardware

Sony - ok side software and nonexistential sales hardware. 



So at least, PM is probably at it's other predecessors with digital in mind, though I'd say the numbers are pretty good taking in mind the game wasn't pre-ordered much.
Also it's getting positive feedback so it might be a slow burn for a while.

Hardware sales are just as usual in the meantime. Nothing can stop the almighty selling power of the Switch !



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Top 30:

https://gonintendo.com/stories/365602-japanese-software-sales-for-july-13th-to-19th-2020-top-30

1. [PS4] Ghost of Tsushima – 221,915 / NEW
2. [NSW] Paper Mario: The Origami King – 109,092 / NEW
3. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 71,897 / 5,186,283
4. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 36,183 / 1,173,243
5. [NSW] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 – 29,719 / 124,595
6. [PS4] eBaseball Powerful Pro Baseball 2020 – 26,951 / 118,498
7. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics 20,586 / 235,891
8. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 10,031 / 3,035,989
9. [NSW] Together! The Battle Cats – 9,725 / NEW
10. [NSW] Pokemon Sword/Shield – 7,843 / 3,662,804
11. [PS4] Sword Art Online: Alicization Lycoris – 7,831 / 81,162
12. [NSW] Splatoon 2 – 7,104 / 3,493,303
13. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 6,253 / 3,758,033
14. [NSW] Minecraft – 5,659 / 1,444,331
15. [NSW] Super Mario Party – 5,190 / 1,491,649
16. [NSW] Dr Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch – 3,114 / 262,224
17. [NSW] Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 3,053 / 1,612,840
18. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 2,794 / 865,217
19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 – 2,578 / 938,858
20. [PS4] Remnant: From the Ashes – 2,520 / 26,670
21. [NSW] Indivisible – 2,479 / NEW
22. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II – 2,427 / 220,618
23. [PS4] Indivisible – 2,132 / NEW
24. [NSW] Luigi’s Mansion 3 – 2,072 / 664,768
25. [NSW] Fishing Spirits Nintendo Switch Version – 2,071 / 454,480
26. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered (PlayStation Hits) – 1,955 / 109,023
27. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S – 1,708 / 535,885
28. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey – 1,675 / 2,110,990
29. [NSW] Code: Realize: Wintertide Miracles – 1,620 / NEW
30. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat – 1,619 / 11,375

NSW - 23

PS4 - 7

Last edited by curl-6 - on 23 July 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

how long has it been since an xbox game has been in the top 30 lol