Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 29, 2020 (Jul 13 - Jul 19)

Tagged games:

RFA along with all models of Switch Regular (gray or red/blue), the AC bundle version as well as the Lite are only available via lottery at my local stores.

I just managed to get another copy of RFA via lottery last weekend. When I originally bought at copy at release, it was much easier to get. I just walked in and bought a copy. Now, not so much.




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Me since the games were revealed, the fanboys since E3."

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
Marth said:

Paper Mario comparison:

[N64] Paper Mario 118.322
[GCN] Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door 137.750
[WII] Super Paper Mario 156.055
[3DS] Paper Mario: Sticker Star 130.009
[WIU] Paper Mario Color Splash 28.436

So a bit low, but with digital it's pretty much on par with the other non-Color Splash Paper Mario titles. That's not too bad so far, let's see if it has any legs.

It's not much, but it's still the weakest entry barring Color Splash. Switch effect couldn't do more for it, so I definitely wonder what stopped more people from buying it. 

Edit: forgot digital sales, so it should be more on par with other openings in the series. Still, it could've been a little higher. 



Paper Mario will most likely have better legs than Got tho, PS4 games are always heavily frontloaded in Japan. Dunno if it will manage to outsell it.



Updated!!! 18 Weeks


PokeSmash - 6517k vs ACNH - 5186k

Gap-1331k


First 25 weeks (PokeSmash vs ACNH)

W1: 2603k - 1880k
W2: 827k - 728k
W3: 700k - 423k
W4: 456k - 293k
W5: 498k - 286k
W6: 351k - 284k
W7: 289k - 260k
W8: 234k - 195k
W9: 105k - 130k
W10: 84k - 102k
W11: 66k - 102k
W12: 50k - 98k
W13: 47k - 77k
W14: 48k - 74k
W15: 38k - 70k
W16: 45k - 53k
W17: 40k - 56k
W18: 33k - 72k
W19: 29k -
W20: 26k -
W21: 25k
W22: 33k
W23: 18k
W24: 17k
W25: 16k



I never played a paper mario game, but might get this out of boredom. Also, RFA doesn't have any digital sales. If other games had digital sales, RFA would be relatively a lot lower on the chart.



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RolStoppable said:

It's certain that this year's baseline will continue to be higher than last year's, so the next five weeks are bound to be easy wins for 2020. The situation in 2019 was that both the updated hybrid SKU and the Lite were known, so weekly sales leading up to them were rather low. Launch weeks for the SKUs were week 35 and 38, respectively.

Week 2019 Weekly 2019 Cumulative 2020 Weekly 2020 Cumulative Difference Weekly Difference Cumulative
1 225.698 225.698 284.827 284.827 59.129 59.129
2 83.136 308.834 116.301 401.128 33.165 92.294
3 71.672 380.506 96.458 497.586 24.786 117.080
4 51.556 432.062 67.987 565.573 16.431 133.511
5 66.448 498.510 75.922 641.495 9.474 142.985
6 61.042 559.552 100.961 741.456 39.919 181.904
7 64.313 623.865 80.312 821.948 15.999 198.083
8 49.139 673.004 41.490 863.258 -7.649 190.254
9 66.453 739.457 53.098 916.356 -13.355 176.899
10 67.624 807.081 50.585 967.941 -17.039 160.860
11 55.478 862.559 57.274 1.025.215 1.796 162.656
12 56.812 919.371 392.576 1.417.791 335.764 498.420
13 49.852 969.223 282.561 1.700.352 232.709 731.129
14 46.850 1.016.073 154.640 1.854.992 107.790 838.919
15 54.101 1.070.174 25.313 1.880.305 -28.788 810.131
16 40.338 1.110.512 27.874 1.908.179 -12.464 797.667
17 42.108 1.152.620 107.104 2.015.284 64.996 862.664
18 41.735 1.194.355 78.731 2.094.015 36.996 899.660
19 41.736 1.236.091 78.731 2.172.746 36.995 936.655
20 32.564 1.268.655 38.380 2.211.126 5.816 942.471
21 25.936 1.294.591 52.557 2.263.683 26.621 969.092
22 33.154 1.327.745 107.593 2.371.276 74.439 1.043.531
23 33.590 1.361.335 68.192 2.439.468 34.602 1.078.133
24 34.321 1.395.656 55.187 2.494.655 20.866 1.098.999
25 29.058 1.424.714 78.428 2.573.083 49.370 1.148.369
26 59.184 1.483.898 93.799 2.666.882 34.615 1.182.984
27 75.481 1.559.379 52.250 2.719.132 -23.231 1.159.753
28 55.823 1.615.202 96.879 2.816.011 41.056 1.200.809
29 45.596 1.660.798 113.197 2.929.208 67.601 1.268.410
30 42.689 1.703.487
31 36.613 1.740.100
32 46.338 1.786.438
33 46.339 1.832.777
34 30.072 1.862.849
35 90.553 1.953.402
36 77.392 2.030.794
37 51.619 2.082.413
38 239.740 2.322.153
39 196.489 2.518.642
40 89.137 2.607.779
41 56.680 2.664.459
42 54.067 2.718.526
43 69.438 2.787.964
44 119.397 2.907.361
45 88.772 2.996.133
46 180.136 3.176.269
47 179.992 3.356.261
48 186.763 3.543.024
49 188.501 3.731.525
50 236.625 3.968.150
51 291.485 4.259.614
52 234.268 4.493.885

Switch is at week 29 and its sales are about the same as week 44 last year.  It's tracking 3.5 months ahead of last year.  That's pretty frikkin amazing.  In a couple more weeks we'll be comparing YTD sales to 2019's Pokemon release and the holidays.



RolStoppable said:

It's certain that this year's baseline will continue to be higher than last year's, so the next five weeks are bound to be easy wins for 2020. The situation in 2019 was that both the updated hybrid SKU and the Lite were known, so weekly sales leading up to them were rather low. Launch weeks for the SKUs were week 35 and 38, respectively.

Week 35 at 90 should be close maybe higher for 2020 week 38 at 239 will be the hard one. Its crazy that switch will almost certainly cross 3M in japan next week. Last year it took until week 46 to cross 3M, that's 16 week difference. Was it you hat asked is it possible for switch to sell over 5M in japan this year? Because now i don't just think is possible. I think is highly likely. 



Very strong sales for GoS. Sony may have a winner in Japan on their hands if they play their cards right.

Switch is basically selling through as much stock as they c an supply based on how much it increased despite a relatively average/‘meh’ opening for Paper Mario. Really makes me wonder just how high the baseline would be if supply wasn’t an issue.

Animal Crossing... What can I say? It just continues.



Hardware Comparison Threads:

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
(https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/241660/ps4xbons-2019-vs-2020/1/)

Chicho said:
RolStoppable said:

It's certain that this year's baseline will continue to be higher than last year's, so the next five weeks are bound to be easy wins for 2020. The situation in 2019 was that both the updated hybrid SKU and the Lite were known, so weekly sales leading up to them were rather low. Launch weeks for the SKUs were week 35 and 38, respectively.

Week 35 at 90 should be close maybe higher for 2020 week 38 at 239 will be the hard one. Its crazy that switch will almost certainly cross 3M in japan next week. Last year it took until week 46 to cross 3M, that's 16 week difference. Was it you hat asked is it possible for switch to sell over 5M in japan this year? Because now i don't just think is possible. I think is highly likely. 

That sounds like a tbone51 thread.

Ever since the delay of Animal Crossing into the year 2020, I was sure that 2019 wouldn't be Switch's peak year. What's special about Animal Crossing is that it has a much bigger pull for females than any other Nintendo game, so it comes with large hardware selling potential. I've posted the year over year comparison every week this year and since the beginning the biggest point of interest was whether or not 2020 can beat 2019 and what kind of sales progression it will take. In short: 2020 had to build a sizeable lead (a few hundred thousand) until September to be prepared for the Lite launch of 2019.

2020 was on track for that through the first 11 weeks, but then Animal Crossing (and subsequent corona lockdowns) led to such a massive hardware boost that it became a question of by how much will 2020 beat 2019. 2019 managed 4.5m, 2020 will be 5.0m minimum. Right now 5.5m looks like the floor and that's without knowing Nintendo's first party lineup for the remaining five months. If it's at least decent, then 6.0m is in the cards.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Dyotropic said:

Also, RFA doesn't have any digital sales. If other games had digital sales, RFA would be relatively a lot lower on the chart.

At the same time, RFA has some of its sales not tracked by Famitsu because they are through the official Nintendo Store in Japan.

For the prior fiscal period, Nintendo reported having shipped 890K to Japan, but on Famitsu the sales were 745K. A gap of 145K attributed to Nintendo's online store. At the moment I'm thinking we would see shipped numbers for RFA will be over >1.3M for Japan for the prior quarter(1.1M shipped to retailers / 250K from Nintendo directly).  

Nintendo has had issues with supply through-out nearly a year RFA has been on the market. We haven't actually seen how much its able to sell if there is enough supply out there. Around 100K units were unaccounted for Q4(Nintendo store), this climbed to 145K in Q1, but during Q1 we also had COVID, and Nintendo store was selling everything as soon as it arrived. During this time at retail, Ring Fit had it's slowest months due to low stock - selling under 10K because there was simply only so many units Nintendo was able to provide to retailers. Week 18(April 27 - May 3) we saw the first time Nintendo was able to provide more stock and gradually RFA has hit a baseline of around 30-40K shipped to retailers per week. This is why I think Nintendo sold at least 100K directly through their store this quarter. 

  • Week 17: 12.351
  • Week 18: 81.649
  • Week 19: 22.740
  • Week 20: 21.963
  • Week 21: 11.746
  • Week 22: 39.518
  • Week 23: 29.487

Famitsu Ring Fit Adventure Quarterly Results

  • 2019Q4: 495.639
  • 2020Q1: 249.488
  • 2020Q2: 328.387
  • 2020Q3: 99.729

Nintendo Ring Fit Adventure Quarterly Results

  • 2019Q4: 630K
  • 2020Q1: 260K
  • Prediction for 2020Q2: >430K
  • Prediction for LTD: 1.32M