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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will the new generation have an impact on Nintendo Switch sales?

NobleTeam360 on 13 July 2020

Maybe a very minor one.



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Jranation on 13 July 2020

No imo. The Switch:
- Looks different
- Have different games
- Cheaper price
- Different functionality



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Wman1996 on 13 July 2020

There will of course be some impact, but not enough to hurt the Switch. If the Switch's sales take a big hit in the middle of its life to late life, it won't be because of PS5 and XSX.
Switch is in a very interesting spot that it's in the middle of its life when the competition launches their next-gen hardware. I know Switch isn't a direct competitor, but it's still somewhat of a competitor due to being a video game platform that can act as a home console.
We'll likely get Switch 2 (or whatever it will be) in 2023 or 2024 which will be the middle of the life of PS5 and XSX. It will be interesting to see how their sales are impacted then, and how Nintendo's are.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

curl-6 on 13 July 2020
Wman1996 said:
There will of course be some impact, but not enough to hurt the Switch. If the Switch's sales take a big hit in the middle of its life to late life, it won't be because of PS5 and XSX.
Switch is in a very interesting spot that it's in the middle of its life when the competition launches their next-gen hardware. I know Switch isn't a direct competitor, but it's still somewhat of a competitor due to being a video game platform that can act as a home console.
We'll likely get Switch 2 (or whatever it will be) in 2023 or 2024 which will be the middle of the life of PS5 and XSX. It will be interesting to see how their sales are impacted then, and how Nintendo's are.

Well, when Switch came out midway through the life of PS4 and Xbox One, they didn't affect each other's sales.



DonFerrari on 13 July 2020
curl-6 said:

No, it's too different a product. They won't impact it for the same reason sales of motorbikes don't impact sales of family cars.

The only thing that can really hurt the Switch is Nintendo.

A guy marrying makes he sell the motorbike to buy an old family car, while on divorce he sells the expensive family car to get a old motorbike and use the money to pay the costs... So there is a small overlap =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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arthurchan35 on 13 July 2020

Yes, there will be, but the amount of impact is manageable for Nintendo, meaning I can still see Switch tops 100m lifetime.



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brute on 13 July 2020

I don't see them impacting Switch until 2022, if at all. By then Switch will be on it's natural decline due to market saturation.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Immersiveunreality on 13 July 2020

The switch has some overlap in consumers and lots of those people just buy all or both consoles and it also reaches to a younger market.



brute on 13 July 2020
KBG29 said:
The competition is going to really heat up against Switch going into 2021. Not only will they be contesting with PS5 and XBSX, but they will also be competing against a revamped PS Now/Remote Play, a fully realized Game Pass/xCloud, and Stadia.

I still believe that we are going to see Switch sales follow the same path as Wii and 3DS, with a massive fall off in the near future. By 2022, I think Switch will be limping along.

The problem will be a lack of software. Nintendo has already put out Mario, Mario Kart, Zelda, Smash, and Pokemon. They still have Metroid, Pikmin, and Star Fox to bring new experiences to Switch, but those franchises are no where near those already released. I don't feel that a Zelda BOTW 2, Mario Odyssey 2, or Mario Kart 9 will have a major impact on sales.

As for 3rd parties. We will see more and more titles not making it to the Switch over the coming months. Even those that do, like Fifa or NBA 2K, will still be watered down versions of the PS4/XBO game, while PS5, XBS, Stadia, and PC will have fully next gen versions from the next year on.

I just feel that there are going to be too many better ways to play one version of a game across Home and Mobile devices. Remote Play and xCloud (Beta), already offer a better way to play the 3rd party games people already own on Mobile's and Tablets. By the end of 2020, PS Now, xCloud, and Stadia will be in full swing, offering a hassel free way to play the games people already own, without having to rely on their console at home. At that point, the only advantage Switch has will be greatly dimenished, and I honestly don't know what Nintendo does to remedy that. As even a new Switch will face this competition. I think it is going to come down to Nintendo relying exclusively on their 1st Party, or partenering with a cloud service provider to offer 3rd party games on par with the competition.

Stadia and PSNow have been limping since they launched. I don't see that changing in the next year. xCloud remains to be seen but I don't see it being a direct competitor to Nintendo, if and when it finally launches. Remote Play doesn't come close to the same experience that Switch offers.

Also - Sequels can sell systems due to hype alone that will surround the system at the games launch.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Manlytears on 14 July 2020

the impact this year will be small, price and new releases are the major factors for Ninty sucess in 2020, but in the years to come... yup, next gen hardware will bite a fair share of switch sales.