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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

 

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.17%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 3.98%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.93%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.53%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 260 22.03%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 170 14.41%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 179 15.17%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.71%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 62 5.25%
 
More than 20 million 104 8.81%
 
Total:1,180
Immersiveunreality on 10 July 2020

12 mill,but sales will be more frontloaded compared to the first game.

Another 5 mill for the PS5 version.



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scottslater on 10 July 2020
TheBlackNaruto said:
scottslater said:

Yeah, I would view it that way about legs but it is a "subjective" topic overall.  If you fall off of best selling charts within a couple weeks/months after release that can't be a good thing for overall sales (even more so when you take into count the amount that these games get discounted and bundled) and making money.

I'm a Nintendo fan, but you provided some data and I provided data on what I think presents a better idea of what "legs" look like.

Doesn't really make sense to expect Nintendo 1st party console games to consistently do well and not expect Sony titles to do the same with how much people like to say that the PS4 is successful because of their 1st party games...

 I would agree it is semi subjective as far as legs goes. So in saying that it means you could be right and others can be wrong and vice versa. Do you have any proof that says that if a game falls off the top selling charts in the first couple of weeks/months is always bad for a games overall sales and making money?  Or is that just your personal thought?

That a big part of why the PS4 has been successful, because of Sony 1st party games. Which have been doing consistently well. So I guess I don't see where the issue is. This generation has been one of the biggest if not THE biggest for Sony 1st party games and their sales. To think other wise would mean one would think that almost all Sony 1st party games before this generation did not do well.

So I guess I am just at a loss to how you came to your stance.

No, the PS4 was so successful is the same reason the PS2 was so successful, no competition.  Microsoft punted the launch of the Xbox One with how it was presented (forced hardware, always "online", how used games were handled, etc) and the WiiU was just as bad with how it was marketed.

For sure I could be wrong. Games are getting more and more expensive to make/market/etc and if you have to discount a game heavily shortly after it releases to keep sales up that can't be a good thing for the overall health of the brand.

Another thing about games falling off the charts, part of it is about building brands, you want people talking about your IPs for as long as possible and the easiest way to do that is to have games that sell well for extended periods of time and turn "evergreen", Sony games don't have that yet and IMO you need to have that otherwise you have situations like the PS3, Xbox One, WiiU, etc. When a game sells to less than 10% of your install base to me that means not enough people care about your exclusive games.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

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YanisFromFrance on 10 July 2020

Btw guys are you from UK or USA ?



YanisFromFrance on 10 July 2020

The Nintendo Switch will maybe outsell the PS4



scottslater on 10 July 2020
Marth said:
scottslater said:

No, the PS4 was so successful is the same reason the PS2 was so successful, no competition.

For sure I could be wrong. Games are getting more and more expensive to make/market/etc and if you have to discount a game heavily shortly after it releases to keep sales up that can't be a good thing for the overall health of the brand.

Another thing about games falling off the charts, part of it is about building brands, you want people talking about your IPs for as long as possible and the easiest way to do that is to have games that sell well for extended periods of time and turn "evergreen", Sony games don't have that yet and IMO you need to have that otherwise you have situations like the PS3, Xbox One, WiiU, etc. When a game sells to less than 10% of your install base to me that means not enough people care about your exclusive games.

So like more than 75% of the exclusives Nintendo published on the Switch?

Mario Maker 2 and everything below it covers that criteria.

Sure, but how many of those games are spin-offs of franchises that hit that threshold?  That's why I said building your IPs up.  A Pokemon spin-off game is still a part of the overall success of the Pokemon Brand.  Same with Mario, Zelda, etc.



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Hynad on 10 July 2020

Thanks Marth, for doing God’s work, but...

Can someone ban the troll already?



scottslater on 10 July 2020
Marth said:
June NPD results will be out next week (on the 17th to be prescise)

And TLou 2 will lead that list for sure. And probably set some records as well.

It better lead the list, literally nothing of relevance has come out since late March/early April and nothing again until July 17th.  2020 has been such a weird year... lol

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater on 10 July 2020
Hynad said:

Thanks Marth, for doing God’s work, but...

Can someone ban the troll already?

Truth hurts sometimes...

Just to be clear, I'm saying this game will not fail. Quite the contrary actually, I think it will sell very well.

What I'm saying is that the PS4 version will not hit that 10+ million threshold because a PS5 version with something special will be announced before to long and people are going to wait out on getting that version after the initial big boom of sales that it will see early on (and a lot of people will buy used versions as a result of people not wanting to hold onto the game since there is no real reason to other than as a collector).

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

kazuyamishima on 10 July 2020
SilenceDeadly said:
Sony exclusives have no legs yet many have legged out to be 10M+ Sellers.

Horizon 2 weeks 2.7M, already >10M.
God of War 3.1M 3 Days, already >10M
Spider Man 3.3M 3 Days, already 13M+
The Last of Us 3M in a Month, already 20M+
Uncharted 4 2.7M 1 Week, already 16M+
Last of Us 2 4.?M 3 Days,.....

And those numbers are not updated since May 2019.

But yeah PS4 games have no legs...



scottslater on 10 July 2020
kazuyamishima said:
SilenceDeadly said:
Sony exclusives have no legs yet many have legged out to be 10M+ Sellers.

Horizon 2 weeks 2.7M, already >10M.
God of War 3.1M 3 Days, already >10M
Spider Man 3.3M 3 Days, already 13M+
The Last of Us 3M in a Month, already 20M+
Uncharted 4 2.7M 1 Week, already 16M+
Last of Us 2 4.?M 3 Days,.....

And those numbers are not updated since May 2019.

But yeah PS4 games have no legs...

5 titles hit 10 million sales in 7 years... yeah, not exactly lighting up the sales charts...



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