Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.22%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 4.00%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.96%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.56%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 259 22.06%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 169 14.40%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 177 15.08%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.75%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 61 5.20%
 
More than 20 million 103 8.77%
 
Total:1,174
scottslater said:
Marth said:

Except it is not a failure at all in Japan. Do you read what I wrote?

It opened around 30% better than Tlou1 WITHOUT DIGITAL and is now already at over 90% of Part 1 LIFETIME SALES, still WITHOUT DIGITAL which should account to at least 20%.

The game has yet to recieve a price cut, bundle or a holiday season and already outsold its predecessor and is in the top 10 of SIE published titles in Japan. AFTER 3 WEEKS!

The Famitsu data is completely out there you can look it up. Just because you saw -80% somewhere and came to some silly conclusions is completely on you.

The data shows it did not fail in the slightest.

We can play this little game further.

Guess which game easly took Nr 1 Spot in the June PSN charts of US and EU?

We already know it is the fastest selling Sony game after its first 3 days with 4M sold thorugh. Which is 700k (20%) more than Spiderman did. In the summer of all seasons. No holiday or black friday boost to speak of.

Other fun facts? Sure

Top 10 yearly amazon chart in Canada and France
2x Top 10 in yearly amazon UK
Top 15 in yearly amazon chart in Germany and the US

The chance of this game selling less than 10M are pretty much 0.
You can try to spin this all you want. The game did not fail.

Quite the opposite it is doing excpetional. Deal with it.

So because it did well compared to other failures it's not a failure?  That's not how this works, it is still a failure compared to other games there is my point.

Sure, those facts are fun but irrelevant to what I am saying, it will not have legs.  EVERY Sony exclusive has this trend, huge front loaded sales then fade into obscurity.  I'm not saying the game is a failure or will be a failure.  What I'm saying is I don't think it will have the legs to get to 10 million because a PS5 version will kill it just like how the PS3 version of the first game was killed by a PS4 version.

Compared to what?



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Marth said:
scottslater said:

So because it did well compared to other failures it's not a failure?  That's not how this works, it is still a failure compared to other games there is my point.

Sure, those facts are fun but irrelevant to what I am saying, it will not have legs.  EVERY Sony exclusive has this trend, huge front loaded sales then fade into obscurity.  I'm not saying the game is a failure or will be a failure.  What I'm saying is I don't think it will have the legs to get to 10 million because a PS5 version will kill it just like how the PS3 version of the first game was killed by a PS4 version.

Compared to what?

Successful games.



Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
Marth said:

Compared to what?

Successful games.

List them

With their concrete sales numbers



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

Marth said:
scottslater said:

Successful games.

List them

With their concrete sales numbers

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 53,506 (5,058,226)
  2. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 23,591 (195,211)
  3. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 12,285 (1,092,799)
  4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 10,037 (3,015,080)
  5. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (SIE, 06/19/20) – 9,279 (213,968)
  6. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Bundle Version Included) (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 8,114 (3,478,749)
  7. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 8,111 (3,647,104)
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 7,111 (3,744,880)
  9. [NSW] Catherine: Full Body (Atlus, 07/02/20) – 6,917 (New)
  10. [NSW] Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Bundle Version Included) (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 6,104 (1,432,705)
  11. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 4,903 (1,481,128)
  12. [NSW] Brigandine: The Legend of Runersia (Happinet, 06/25/20) – 4,176 (19,418)
  13. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered (PlayStation Hits) (SIE, 07/26/18) – 3,735 (104,335)
  14. [PS4] Marvel’s Iron Man VR (SIE, 07/03/20) – 3,358 (New)
  15. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Limited Edition Included) (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 3,223 (1,606,663)
  16. [PS4] Remnant: From the Ashes (DMM Games, 06/25/20) – 2,905 (22,149)
  17. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition (Nintendo, 05/29/20) – 2,742 (126,662)
  18. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo, 12/27/19) – 2,674 (256,409)
  19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 2,547 (933,420)
  20. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan, 06/25/20) – 2,427 (7,668)
  21. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (01/11/19) – 2,387 (859,560)
  22. [NSW]Luigi’s Mansion 3(Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 2,224 (660,461)
  23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition (Limited Edition Included) (Square Enix, 09/27/19) – 2,035 (532,314)
  24. [NSW] Ace Angler: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco, 07/25/19) – 1,830 (450,299)
  25. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Bargain Edition Reprint) (Rockstar Games, 12/06/18) – 1,825 (68,505)
  26. [NSW] Mr. Driller DrillLand (Bandai Namco, 06/18/20) – 1,705 (8,366)
  27. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix, 04/10/20) – 1,656 (932,821)
  28. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 1,543 (487,592)
  29. [NSW] Fitness Boxing (Imagineer, 12/20/18) – 1,527 (117,712)
  30. [PS4] Monster Hunter World: Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom, 09/06/19) – 1,485 (480,784)

If a game like Clubhouse Games passes it this week that is not a good sign, that is a crash and burn IMO.  And these are just last weeks numbers.  Anyway you slice it the game is a failure in a VERY important market and comparing it to other failures to make it seem like a success is very disingenuous.

Running quick numbers Japan makes up roughly 11% of console install base (about 8% of the PS4 install base), that is a very important % of the industry just based on install base not taking into account the amount of software sales they take up (will look into that further later as well).

NA makes up about 42% (33% of PS4) so it is a very important factor of overall success of the console version of video games and Europe makes up 33% (42% of PS4) so almost every PS4 launch is a success there.  That is why I'm curious about NA numbers because American video game trends tend to be more in line with the Japanese market which does not bode well for the legs of TLOU2.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
Marth said:

List them

With their concrete sales numbers

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 53,506 (5,058,226)
  2. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 23,591 (195,211)
  3. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 12,285 (1,092,799)
  4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 10,037 (3,015,080)
  5. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (SIE, 06/19/20) – 9,279 (213,968)
  6. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Bundle Version Included) (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 8,114 (3,478,749)
  7. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 8,111 (3,647,104)
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 7,111 (3,744,880)
  9. [NSW] Catherine: Full Body (Atlus, 07/02/20) – 6,917 (New)
  10. [NSW] Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Bundle Version Included) (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 6,104 (1,432,705)
  11. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 4,903 (1,481,128)
  12. [NSW] Brigandine: The Legend of Runersia (Happinet, 06/25/20) – 4,176 (19,418)
  13. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered (PlayStation Hits) (SIE, 07/26/18) – 3,735 (104,335)
  14. [PS4] Marvel’s Iron Man VR (SIE, 07/03/20) – 3,358 (New)
  15. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Limited Edition Included) (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 3,223 (1,606,663)
  16. [PS4] Remnant: From the Ashes (DMM Games, 06/25/20) – 2,905 (22,149)
  17. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition (Nintendo, 05/29/20) – 2,742 (126,662)
  18. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo, 12/27/19) – 2,674 (256,409)
  19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 2,547 (933,420)
  20. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan, 06/25/20) – 2,427 (7,668)
  21. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (01/11/19) – 2,387 (859,560)
  22. [NSW]Luigi’s Mansion 3(Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 2,224 (660,461)
  23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition (Limited Edition Included) (Square Enix, 09/27/19) – 2,035 (532,314)
  24. [NSW] Ace Angler: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco, 07/25/19) – 1,830 (450,299)
  25. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Bargain Edition Reprint) (Rockstar Games, 12/06/18) – 1,825 (68,505)
  26. [NSW] Mr. Driller DrillLand (Bandai Namco, 06/18/20) – 1,705 (8,366)
  27. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix, 04/10/20) – 1,656 (932,821)
  28. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 1,543 (487,592)
  29. [NSW] Fitness Boxing (Imagineer, 12/20/18) – 1,527 (117,712)
  30. [PS4] Monster Hunter World: Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom, 09/06/19) – 1,485 (480,784)

If a game like Clubhouse Games passes it this week that is not a good sign, that is a crash and burn IMO.

And you still don't read appearantly.
I can simply quote myself from a few posts ago

But it is a western action adventure in Japan on the PS4 so the appeal was always going to be limited. It would NEVER perform like a Final Fantasy or Monster Hunter or even a Gran Turismo.

Sony does not even need Japan to get their games to 10M+ sales.

And now you have looped back to Japan. Where I already described how the game is not a failure.

If you look closely you can also see that basically all of these games are not in the same genre and style as Tlou and mostly have a way bigger history as an IP.
Or do you think broccoli is a failure as a fruit? Context matters in sales. Sony and the stores know that because Famitsu already reported the shipment sold percentage at 80-100% in the first week.



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

Around the Network
Marth said:
scottslater said:
  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Nintendo, 03/20/20) – 53,506 (5,058,226)
  2. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics (Nintendo, 06/05/20) – 23,591 (195,211)
  3. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure (Nintendo, 10/18/19) – 12,285 (1,092,799)
  4. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (Nintendo, 04/28/17) – 10,037 (3,015,080)
  5. [PS4] The Last of Us Part II (SIE, 06/19/20) – 9,279 (213,968)
  6. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (Bundle Version Included) (Nintendo, 07/21/17) – 8,114 (3,478,749)
  7. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield (The Pokemon Company, 11/15/19) – 8,111 (3,647,104)
  8. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (Nintendo, 12/07/18) – 7,111 (3,744,880)
  9. [NSW] Catherine: Full Body (Atlus, 07/02/20) – 6,917 (New)
  10. [NSW] Minecraft: Nintendo Switch Edition (Bundle Version Included) (Microsoft, 06/21/18) – 6,104 (1,432,705)
  11. [NSW] Super Mario Party (Nintendo, 10/05/18) – 4,903 (1,481,128)
  12. [NSW] Brigandine: The Legend of Runersia (Happinet, 06/25/20) – 4,176 (19,418)
  13. [PS4] The Last of Us Remastered (PlayStation Hits) (SIE, 07/26/18) – 3,735 (104,335)
  14. [PS4] Marvel’s Iron Man VR (SIE, 07/03/20) – 3,358 (New)
  15. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (Limited Edition Included) (Nintendo, 03/03/17) – 3,223 (1,606,663)
  16. [PS4] Remnant: From the Ashes (DMM Games, 06/25/20) – 2,905 (22,149)
  17. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition (Nintendo, 05/29/20) – 2,742 (126,662)
  18. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch (Nintendo, 12/27/19) – 2,674 (256,409)
  19. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 (Nintendo, 06/28/19) – 2,547 (933,420)
  20. [NSW] Human Fall Flat (Teyon Japan, 06/25/20) – 2,427 (7,668)
  21. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (01/11/19) – 2,387 (859,560)
  22. [NSW]Luigi’s Mansion 3(Nintendo, 10/31/19) – 2,224 (660,461)
  23. [NSW] Dragon Quest XI S: Echoes of an Elusive Age – Definitive Edition (Limited Edition Included) (Square Enix, 09/27/19) – 2,035 (532,314)
  24. [NSW] Ace Angler: Nintendo Switch Version (Bandai Namco, 07/25/19) – 1,830 (450,299)
  25. [PS4] Grand Theft Auto V: Premium Online Edition (Bargain Edition Reprint) (Rockstar Games, 12/06/18) – 1,825 (68,505)
  26. [NSW] Mr. Driller DrillLand (Bandai Namco, 06/18/20) – 1,705 (8,366)
  27. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake (Square Enix, 04/10/20) – 1,656 (932,821)
  28. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum ‘n’ Fun (Bandai Namco, 07/19/18) – 1,543 (487,592)
  29. [NSW] Fitness Boxing (Imagineer, 12/20/18) – 1,527 (117,712)
  30. [PS4] Monster Hunter World: Iceborne Master Edition (Capcom, 09/06/19) – 1,485 (480,784)

If a game like Clubhouse Games passes it this week that is not a good sign, that is a crash and burn IMO.

And you still don't read appearantly.
I can simply quote myself from a few posts ago

But it is a western action adventure in Japan on the PS4 so the appeal was always going to be limited. It would NEVER perform like a Final Fantasy or Monster Hunter or even a Gran Turismo.

Sony does not even need Japan to get their games to 10M+ sales.

And now you have looped back to Japan. Where I already described how the game is not a failure.

If you look closely you can also see that basically all of these games are not in the same genre and style as Tlou and mostly have a way bigger history as an IP.
Or do you think broccoli is a failure as a fruit? Context matters in sales. Sony and the stores know that because Famitsu already reported the shipment sold percentage at 80-100% in the first week.

See my updated post, you fail to see what my point is.  NA Video Game trends mirror Japanese Video Game trends currently, not a good sign for TLOU2 to perform well outside of Europe long term, even more so when you know that a PS5 version will be coming.

And you fail to read my post as well, I said the game was a failure in Japan compared to other genres and franchises. "it is still a failure compared to other games there is my point."

Care to link that claim highlighted?



Nintendo with the Switch:

Sony exclusives have no legs yet many have legged out to be 10M+ Sellers.

Horizon 2 weeks 2.7M, already >10M.
God of War 3.1M 3 Days, already >10M
Spider Man 3.3M 3 Days, already 13M+
The Last of Us 3M in a Month, already 20M+
Uncharted 4 2.7M 1 Week, already 16M+
Last of Us 2 4.?M 3 Days,.....



scottslater said:

NA Video Game trends mirror Japanese Video Game trends currently

You have no idea what you're talking about. Plenty of western games that do well in NA fair poorly in Japan and of course the vice-versa too. A game doesn't have to have blockbuster sales in Japan to do amazing in NA.

The NA market in no way mirrors the Japanese market.



scottslater said:
Marth said:

And you still don't read appearantly.
I can simply quote myself from a few posts ago

But it is a western action adventure in Japan on the PS4 so the appeal was always going to be limited. It would NEVER perform like a Final Fantasy or Monster Hunter or even a Gran Turismo.

Sony does not even need Japan to get their games to 10M+ sales.

And now you have looped back to Japan. Where I already described how the game is not a failure.

If you look closely you can also see that basically all of these games are not in the same genre and style as Tlou and mostly have a way bigger history as an IP.
Or do you think broccoli is a failure as a fruit? Context matters in sales. Sony and the stores know that because Famitsu already reported the shipment sold percentage at 80-100% in the first week.

See my updated post, you fail to see what my point is.  NA Video Game trends mirror Japanese Video Game trends currently, not a good sign for TLOU2 to perform well outside of Europe long term, even more so when you know that a PS5 version will be coming.

And you fail to read my post as well, I said the game was a failure in Japan compared to other genres and franchises. "it is still a failure compared to other games there is my point."

Care to link that claim highlighted?

https://www.famitsu.com/ranking/game-sales/before_last/

I don't know how your japanese is but the red bar is basically how much stock is available. It has 5 different stages.
Having it in the 80-100% range in first week shows that demand was very strong.

FF XV for example had problems selling through its first shitment in Japan and got discounted heavily to get rid of stock. Tlou2 has none of that. Rather the opposite.

Where do you get your info that NA is mirroring Japan when it comes to trends?
They behave very differently, especially when it comes to buying used copies and buying digital.



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread

SilenceDeadly said:
Sony exclusives have no legs yet many have legged out to be 10M+ Sellers.

Horizon 2 weeks 2.7M, already >10M.
God of War 3.1M 3 Days, already >10M
Spider Man 3.3M 3 Days, already 13M+
The Last of Us 3M in a Month, already 20M+
Uncharted 4 2.7M 1 Week, already 16M+
Last of Us 2 4.?M 3 Days,.....

Compared to Nintendo already with 9 in 3 years... And if we combine sales New Super Mario Bros. U makes it 10

Nintendo games are still on the top selling charts every week/month even years after release, Sony games do not do that.

And I didn't say they didn't sell well, I said they didn't have legs... almost every one of those games you listed had 25% of their sales in the first few weeks, that's not good legs and the TLOU has roughly 10m on the PS4



Nintendo with the Switch: