Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.22%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 4.00%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.96%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.56%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 259 22.06%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 169 14.40%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 177 15.08%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.75%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 61 5.20%
 
More than 20 million 103 8.77%
 
Total:1,174
Marth said:
scottslater said:

No, the PS4 was so successful is the same reason the PS2 was so successful, no competition.

For sure I could be wrong. Games are getting more and more expensive to make/market/etc and if you have to discount a game heavily shortly after it releases to keep sales up that can't be a good thing for the overall health of the brand.

Another thing about games falling off the charts, part of it is about building brands, you want people talking about your IPs for as long as possible and the easiest way to do that is to have games that sell well for extended periods of time and turn "evergreen", Sony games don't have that yet and IMO you need to have that otherwise you have situations like the PS3, Xbox One, WiiU, etc. When a game sells to less than 10% of your install base to me that means not enough people care about your exclusive games.

So like more than 75% of the exclusives Nintendo published on the Switch?

Mario Maker 2 and everything below it covers that criteria.

Sure, but how many of those games are spin-offs of franchises that hit that threshold?  That's why I said building your IPs up.  A Pokemon spin-off game is still a part of the overall success of the Pokemon Brand.  Same with Mario, Zelda, etc.



Nintendo with the Switch:

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Thanks Marth, for doing God’s work, but...

Can someone ban the troll already?




Marth said:
June NPD results will be out next week (on the 17th to be prescise)

And TLou 2 will lead that list for sure. And probably set some records as well.

It better lead the list, literally nothing of relevance has come out since late March/early April and nothing again until July 17th.  2020 has been such a weird year... lol

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

Hynad said:

Thanks Marth, for doing God’s work, but...

Can someone ban the troll already?

Truth hurts sometimes...

Just to be clear, I'm saying this game will not fail. Quite the contrary actually, I think it will sell very well.

What I'm saying is that the PS4 version will not hit that 10+ million threshold because a PS5 version with something special will be announced before to long and people are going to wait out on getting that version after the initial big boom of sales that it will see early on (and a lot of people will buy used versions as a result of people not wanting to hold onto the game since there is no real reason to other than as a collector).

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

SilenceDeadly said:
Sony exclusives have no legs yet many have legged out to be 10M+ Sellers.

Horizon 2 weeks 2.7M, already >10M.
God of War 3.1M 3 Days, already >10M
Spider Man 3.3M 3 Days, already 13M+
The Last of Us 3M in a Month, already 20M+
Uncharted 4 2.7M 1 Week, already 16M+
Last of Us 2 4.?M 3 Days,.....

And those numbers are not updated since May 2019.

But yeah PS4 games have no legs...



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kazuyamishima said:
SilenceDeadly said:
Sony exclusives have no legs yet many have legged out to be 10M+ Sellers.

Horizon 2 weeks 2.7M, already >10M.
God of War 3.1M 3 Days, already >10M
Spider Man 3.3M 3 Days, already 13M+
The Last of Us 3M in a Month, already 20M+
Uncharted 4 2.7M 1 Week, already 16M+
Last of Us 2 4.?M 3 Days,.....

And those numbers are not updated since May 2019.

But yeah PS4 games have no legs...

5 titles hit 10 million sales in 7 years... yeah, not exactly lighting up the sales charts...



Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
kazuyamishima said:

And those numbers are not updated since May 2019.

But yeah PS4 games have no legs...

5 titles hit 10 million sales in 7 years... yeah, not exactly lighting up the sales charts...

Considering that in the PS3 days only one title passed the 10 million mark, this is a big improvement.

Still, first and third party titles on the system are doing excellent, there are a really high number of titles that crossed the 10 million mark.

Aside of Minecraft, can you name a third party title that crossed the 5 million mark and your beloved switch??



kazuyamishima said:
scottslater said:

5 titles hit 10 million sales in 7 years... yeah, not exactly lighting up the sales charts...

Considering that in the PS3 days only one title passed the 10 million mark, this is a big improvement.

Still, first and third party titles on the system are doing excellent, there are a really high number of titles that crossed the 10 million mark.

Aside of Minecraft, can you name a third party title that crossed the 5 million mark and your beloved switch??

Agree, I'm glad they are starting to get better at selling their Exclusives, it's really important to longevity.

I'm sure some 3rd party titles have sold well on the Switch, but hard to get that sales data since most publishers don't give out that info (Nintendo is one of the few that do).



Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
Marth said:

It did not crash and burn in Japan.

Where do people get those hot takes from? It is doing mostly as expected in the japanese market and performs better than the first game in the series.

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

Must be the reason MS do better in Japan than in Europe right? So as Japan first week was like 150k and ww 4M did europe sold 3M?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
scottslater said:

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

Must be the reason MS do better in Japan than in Europe right? So as Japan first week was like 150k and ww 4M did europe sold 3M?

Huh? What I said is buying trends are currently the same, so the game will have big front loaded sales in the US and then quickly drop off...  I didn't say the same quantities... I'm guessing Asia+rest of the world is going to be around 500k, US around 1.5 million, Europe 2 million



Nintendo with the Switch: