Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.22%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 4.00%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.96%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.56%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 259 22.06%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 169 14.40%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 177 15.08%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.75%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 61 5.20%
 
More than 20 million 103 8.77%
 
Total:1,174
scottslater said:
DonFerrari said:

Must be the reason MS do better in Japan than in Europe right? So as Japan first week was like 150k and ww 4M did europe sold 3M?

Huh? What I said is buying trends are currently the same, so the game will have big front loaded sales in the US and then quickly drop off...  I didn't say the same quantities... I'm guessing Asia+rest of the world is going to be around 500k, US around 1.5 million, Europe 2 million

You are just spouting non-sense. And just to note UC4 had a 78% drop in UK while TLOU2 80%, so a big drop second week is quite the norm for AAA games.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

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YanisFromFrance said:
The Nintendo Switch will maybe outsell the PS4

That really has nothing to do with this topic.



DonFerrari said:
scottslater said:

Huh? What I said is buying trends are currently the same, so the game will have big front loaded sales in the US and then quickly drop off...  I didn't say the same quantities... I'm guessing Asia+rest of the world is going to be around 500k, US around 1.5 million, Europe 2 million

You are just spouting non-sense. And just to note UC4 had a 78% drop in UK while TLOU2 80%, so a big drop second week is quite the norm for AAA games.

What other AAA games have this big of a drop?  Just because ONE other title has had the same scenario doesn't make it a "norm". Also, Uncharted 4 had excellent legs and maintained top 10 selling status on the charts for weeks.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
DonFerrari said:

You are just spouting non-sense. And just to note UC4 had a 78% drop in UK while TLOU2 80%, so a big drop second week is quite the norm for AAA games.

What other AAA games have this big of a drop?  Just because ONE other title has had the same scenario doesn't make it a "norm". 

From the report and the thread on the drop for UK there were listed several games. But you can keep your doom and gloom if you preffer.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

📣 Thread Warning

This thread is about TLOU 2 sales... The legs of other Sony games may relevant to the conversation. Comparing the legs of Sony games to Nintendo games is, as far as I can tell from reading the posts here, not relevant to the conversation, and has completely derailed the topic. 

Feel free to make another topic to discuss that particular issue, but keep this topic focused on TLOU 2 sales.



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DonFerrari said:
scottslater said:

What other AAA games have this big of a drop?  Just because ONE other title has had the same scenario doesn't make it a "norm". 

From the report and the thread on the drop for UK there were listed several games. But you can keep your doom and gloom if you preffer.

Link?  Because I haven't seen any list of it being a "norm".  Also, I'm not being Doom and gloom, I'm simply stating that this game faces a very particular difficult path of hitting the 10+ million status on the PS4.

UN4 had amazing legs when it came out, lasting weeks in the Top 10 (often reclaiming the #1 spot again) and with the Nintendo Switch dominating so many headlines compared to what UN4 had to deal with, I just don't see TLOU2 making that same kind of impact globally.  When the updated PS5 version comes it will really get the numbers it needs to hit what TLOU hit in terms of sales.

EDIT: Off topic but it's funny looking back at 2016 and seeing how much of an impact Pokemon Go had on the series that year.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
DonFerrari said:

From the report and the thread on the drop for UK there were listed several games. But you can keep your doom and gloom if you preffer.

Link?  Because I haven't seen any list of it being a "norm".  Also, I'm not being Doom and gloom, I'm simply stating that this game faces a very particular difficult path of hitting the 10+ million status on the PS4.

UN4 had amazing legs when it came out, lasting weeks in the Top 10 (often reclaiming the #1 spot again) and with the Nintendo Switch dominating so many headlines compared to what UN4 had to deal with, I just don't see TLOU2 making that same kind of impact globally.  When the updated PS5 version comes it will really get the numbers it needs to hit what TLOU hit in terms of sales.

Look your own posts for the game crash and burning on Japan and that certainly meaning it done the same in USA.

You need link to see threads on VGC? UC4 dominated the charts in Japan for several weeks? Since when?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

DonFerrari said:
scottslater said:

Link?  Because I haven't seen any list of it being a "norm".  Also, I'm not being Doom and gloom, I'm simply stating that this game faces a very particular difficult path of hitting the 10+ million status on the PS4.

UN4 had amazing legs when it came out, lasting weeks in the Top 10 (often reclaiming the #1 spot again) and with the Nintendo Switch dominating so many headlines compared to what UN4 had to deal with, I just don't see TLOU2 making that same kind of impact globally.  When the updated PS5 version comes it will really get the numbers it needs to hit what TLOU hit in terms of sales.

Look your own posts for the game crash and burning on Japan and that certainly meaning it done the same in USA.

You need link to see threads on VGC? UC4 dominated the charts in Japan for several weeks? Since when?

1st, Uncharted was the #1 selling game in Japan for 2 weeks and outsold it even in the face of better competition than what TLOU2 has faced in it's third week (it's losing to games that have been out for months or even years).

There is a couple variables that many of these games we are comparing it to that they didn't face, Nintendo being relevant again like in the Wii days and next gen systems coming this year.  That's why I'm comparing it the first game, it will have decent sales on the PS4 but it will have better sales on the PS5.  The only thing that could prevent it from doing better on the PS5 is if the system is a flop (think Xbox One/WiiU) or the economy is in such bad shape that people can't afford these new systems.



Nintendo with the Switch:

UC4 sold near 20 million.
Spiderman will get to 20 million
TLOU sold 20 million+

TLOU II will easily get to 20 million+



22 million