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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

 

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.17%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 3.98%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.93%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.53%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 260 22.03%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 170 14.41%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 179 15.17%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.71%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 62 5.25%
 
More than 20 million 104 8.81%
 
Total:1,180

The first wind has cleared and the 11m is what it will sell along its current trajectory... I can't recall what I voted for but it was probably approaching 15-20m, so that is a lot lower than I expected. However Part 1 and the HBO show are sure to boost sales. But whether they're sales for the PS4 version or a soon to be announced PS5 version is yet to be seen. Probably the game could still do 20m LT with PS5/PC but that will really be dependant on the HBO show being huge and supporting future sales. Also the upcoming multiplayer game.

A double bundle has lowkey been confirmed by Bloomberg but again I think that will next year and likely a PS5 port

Last edited by Otter - on 11 June 2022

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Kyuu said:

It shouldn't come as a surprise that the game underperformed relative to some early expectations. No one saw the huge backlash/controversy coming. I for one loved the first game yet couldn't bring myself to finish the 2nd, and really fucking hated it, more so after skimming through let's plays.

But I wouldn't rule out that the HBO series + a new marketing campaign may give the games a healthy sales boost and push them beyond the current trajectory. The Witcher 3 did get a serious boost from the Netflix series iirc.

The first half the game is is amazing.  I just didn't like the 2nd half at all.  Felt like a lame attempt to make the game 2x longer than it actually was.  I always compared it to RE2...  scenario B was always optional.  TLoU 2 should have used a scenario option and not forced both stories at once.



Chrkeller said:
Kyuu said:

It shouldn't come as a surprise that the game underperformed relative to some early expectations. No one saw the huge backlash/controversy coming. I for one loved the first game yet couldn't bring myself to finish the 2nd, and really fucking hated it, more so after skimming through let's plays.

But I wouldn't rule out that the HBO series + a new marketing campaign may give the games a healthy sales boost and push them beyond the current trajectory. The Witcher 3 did get a serious boost from the Netflix series iirc.

The first half the game is is amazing.  I just didn't like the 2nd half at all.  Felt like a lame attempt to make the game 2x longer than it actually was.  I always compared it to RE2...  scenario B was always optional.  TLoU 2 should have used a scenario option and not forced both stories at once.

The absolute majority of scenarios, maps and assets of Abby's journey are original, so I strongly disagree with your idea it was just an attempt to make the game bigger (I also disagree with RE2, but for other reasons). 

The point of the second part of the game is to show any story has two sides. The third part of the game wouldn't work nearly as well if we haven't see Abby and Lev journey and, of course, how to create connection with both. I frankly just love Lev and hope he comes back later in the series, but anyway.

Gameplay wise I like Ellie's slightly better because I feel she's more focused on stealth, while Abby is more brutal remember me a bit of Joel. Overall I think both maps are equally well designed with a fair share of challenge, with Ellie's journey being more grey, rainy, grimmer and providing a nice view of the desolation in Seattle. Abby's give me a perspective that was still some kind of civilization living there and overall I found her scenarios to being either lighter or outright dark/nocturne, although the differences aren't pronunciated enough as still the same place. 

Narrative-wise is where the most important reason can be found: Ellie journey is about her disintegration and how he was growing more heartless and blood seeking. It was a pain to see the character we already love being consumed by the darkness.

Abby story is diametrically the opposite, she meets two kids and vow to help and protect them . Abby's journey is light-hearted, noble even. The effect is to see a character we hate turning into a better person. At the end of the game I was kinda of sympathizing with Abby so I guess it worked lol



IcaroRibeiro said:
Chrkeller said:

The first half the game is is amazing.  I just didn't like the 2nd half at all.  Felt like a lame attempt to make the game 2x longer than it actually was.  I always compared it to RE2...  scenario B was always optional.  TLoU 2 should have used a scenario option and not forced both stories at once.

The absolute majority of scenarios, maps and assets of Abby's journey are original, so I strongly disagree with your idea it was just an attempt to make the game bigger (I also disagree with RE2, but for other reasons). 

The point of the second part of the game is to show any story has two sides. The third part of the game wouldn't work nearly as well if we haven't see Abby and Lev journey and, of course, how to create connection with both. I frankly just love Lev and hope he comes back later in the series, but anyway.

Gameplay wise I like Ellie's slightly better because I feel she's more focused on stealth, while Abby is more brutal remember me a bit of Joel. Overall I think both maps are equally well designed with a fair share of challenge, with Ellie's journey being more grey, rainy, grimmer and providing a nice view of the desolation in Seattle. Abby's give me a perspective that was still some kind of civilization living there and overall I found her scenarios to being either lighter or outright dark/nocturne, although the differences aren't pronunciated enough as still the same place. 

Narrative-wise is where the most important reason can be found: Ellie journey is about her disintegration and how he was growing more heartless and blood seeking. It was a pain to see the character we already love being consumed by the darkness.

Abby story is diametrically the opposite, she meets two kids and vow to help and protect them . Abby's journey is light-hearted, noble even. The effect is to see a character we hate turning into a better person. At the end of the game I was kinda of sympathizing with Abby so I guess it worked lol

Fair enough, we will have to agree to disagree.  For me the story, gameplay and set pieces were too similar.  It reminded me of RE2 scenario B.  TLoU is great, the sequel just wasn't for me.  But I'm glad others enjoyed it.



I don't feel like changes to the story would of had a massive difference to its sales tbh but we'll never really know. I think the whole leaking + drama which followed did put a bad taste in many's mouth, but that's ultimately a small% of sales that wouldn've been lost.

Sophmore slums are actually very common, so especially for story driven IPs, its really important Sony keep investing in new stories. This is also risk for them, which is why its important they build up IPs which are more gameplay centric (Mario/Zelda/Halo/Fortnight) etc



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IcaroRibeiro said:
Chrkeller said:

The first half the game is is amazing.  I just didn't like the 2nd half at all.  Felt like a lame attempt to make the game 2x longer than it actually was.  I always compared it to RE2...  scenario B was always optional.  TLoU 2 should have used a scenario option and not forced both stories at once.

The absolute majority of scenarios, maps and assets of Abby's journey are original, so I strongly disagree with your idea it was just an attempt to make the game bigger (I also disagree with RE2, but for other reasons). 

The point of the second part of the game is to show any story has two sides. The third part of the game wouldn't work nearly as well if we haven't see Abby and Lev journey and, of course, how to create connection with both. I frankly just love Lev and hope he comes back later in the series, but anyway.

Gameplay wise I like Ellie's slightly better because I feel she's more focused on stealth, while Abby is more brutal remember me a bit of Joel. Overall I think both maps are equally well designed with a fair share of challenge, with Ellie's journey being more grey, rainy, grimmer and providing a nice view of the desolation in Seattle. Abby's give me a perspective that was still some kind of civilization living there and overall I found her scenarios to being either lighter or outright dark/nocturne, although the differences aren't pronunciated enough as still the same place. 

Narrative-wise is where the most important reason can be found: Ellie journey is about her disintegration and how he was growing more heartless and blood seeking. It was a pain to see the character we already love being consumed by the darkness.

Abby story is diametrically the opposite, she meets two kids and vow to help and protect them . Abby's journey is light-hearted, noble even. The effect is to see a character we hate turning into a better person. At the end of the game I was kinda of sympathizing with Abby so I guess it worked lol

Very well put. I don't see how people hate so much the idea of playing with Abbie and seeing her suffering and redemption, even though they like to play true villains that are purposed on killing whole countries.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

The absolute majority of scenarios, maps and assets of Abby's journey are original, so I strongly disagree with your idea it was just an attempt to make the game bigger (I also disagree with RE2, but for other reasons). 

The point of the second part of the game is to show any story has two sides. The third part of the game wouldn't work nearly as well if we haven't see Abby and Lev journey and, of course, how to create connection with both. I frankly just love Lev and hope he comes back later in the series, but anyway.

Gameplay wise I like Ellie's slightly better because I feel she's more focused on stealth, while Abby is more brutal remember me a bit of Joel. Overall I think both maps are equally well designed with a fair share of challenge, with Ellie's journey being more grey, rainy, grimmer and providing a nice view of the desolation in Seattle. Abby's give me a perspective that was still some kind of civilization living there and overall I found her scenarios to being either lighter or outright dark/nocturne, although the differences aren't pronunciated enough as still the same place. 

Narrative-wise is where the most important reason can be found: Ellie journey is about her disintegration and how he was growing more heartless and blood seeking. It was a pain to see the character we already love being consumed by the darkness.

Abby story is diametrically the opposite, she meets two kids and vow to help and protect them . Abby's journey is light-hearted, noble even. The effect is to see a character we hate turning into a better person. At the end of the game I was kinda of sympathizing with Abby so I guess it worked lol

Very well put. I don't see how people hate so much the idea of playing with Abbie and seeing her suffering and redemption, even though they like to play true villains that are purposed on killing whole countries.

Pacing was my reason.  You get to an amazing climax with Ellie..  and have to wait 8 to 10 hours to see the conclusion via Abbie.  Maybe switching back and forth would have been better?  I didn't personally have a problem with Abbie/scenario B...  just how it was paced/designed.  Does that make sense?  I'm not trying to change your mind, just giving my honest opinion.  For instance when I played Abbie I recall rushing just so I could get back to the climax that was build up quite nicely with Ellie.  So pacing was just weird to me.



Chrkeller said:
DonFerrari said:

Very well put. I don't see how people hate so much the idea of playing with Abbie and seeing her suffering and redemption, even though they like to play true villains that are purposed on killing whole countries.

Pacing was my reason.  You get to an amazing climax with Ellie..  and have to wait 8 to 10 hours to see the conclusion via Abbie.  Maybe switching back and forth would have been better?  I didn't personally have a problem with Abbie/scenario B...  just how it was paced/designed.  Does that make sense?  I'm not trying to change your mind, just giving my honest opinion.  For instance when I played Abbie I recall rushing just so I could get back to the climax that was build up quite nicely with Ellie.  So pacing was just weird to me.

I don't think switching every know and then would do much good, that would truly ruin pacing and would already spoil to you that you would play as both and also wouldn't let sink the full weight of Ellie actions you made.

In manga one of the stuffs I hate the most is when protagonist major fight is streached for like 4 volumes because they want to synch every minute of his fight with the fight of other people. That totally breaks my pace.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Chrkeller said:

Pacing was my reason.  You get to an amazing climax with Ellie..  and have to wait 8 to 10 hours to see the conclusion via Abbie.  Maybe switching back and forth would have been better?  I didn't personally have a problem with Abbie/scenario B...  just how it was paced/designed.  Does that make sense?  I'm not trying to change your mind, just giving my honest opinion.  For instance when I played Abbie I recall rushing just so I could get back to the climax that was build up quite nicely with Ellie.  So pacing was just weird to me.

I don't think switching every know and then would do much good, that would truly ruin pacing and would already spoil to you that you would play as both and also wouldn't let sink the full weight of Ellie actions you made.

In manga one of the stuffs I hate the most is when protagonist major fight is streached for like 4 volumes because they want to synch every minute of his fight with the fight of other people. That totally breaks my pace.

Fair enough, everybody is entitled to their opinion.  I struggled with the hard break in the climax.  I just was put off by it.  I get the idea/concept, I always understand why others liked it, but it wasn't for me.



Chrkeller said:
DonFerrari said:

I don't think switching every know and then would do much good, that would truly ruin pacing and would already spoil to you that you would play as both and also wouldn't let sink the full weight of Ellie actions you made.

In manga one of the stuffs I hate the most is when protagonist major fight is streached for like 4 volumes because they want to synch every minute of his fight with the fight of other people. That totally breaks my pace.

Fair enough, everybody is entitled to their opinion.  I struggled with the hard break in the climax.  I just was put off by it.  I get the idea/concept, I always understand why others liked it, but it wasn't for me.

Yep, It is understandable that you would like it in a different way, or appreciate if you could chose to go straight to the part 3 of the game without playing part 2 (although I think it would be somewhat disconnected).



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."