Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.22%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 4.00%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.96%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.56%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 259 22.06%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 169 14.40%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 177 15.08%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.75%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 61 5.20%
 
More than 20 million 103 8.77%
 
Total:1,174
scottslater said:
SilenceDeadly said:
Sony exclusives have no legs yet many have legged out to be 10M+ Sellers.

Horizon 2 weeks 2.7M, already >10M.
God of War 3.1M 3 Days, already >10M
Spider Man 3.3M 3 Days, already 13M+
The Last of Us 3M in a Month, already 20M+
Uncharted 4 2.7M 1 Week, already 16M+
Last of Us 2 4.?M 3 Days,.....

Compared to Nintendo already with 9 in 3 years... And if we combine sales New Super Mario Bros. U makes it 10

Nintendo games are still on the top selling charts every week/month even years after release, Sony games do not do that.

And I didn't say they didn't sell well, I said they didn't have legs... almost every one of those games you listed had 25% of their sales in the first few weeks, that's not good legs and the TLOU has roughly 10m on the PS4

So you are a big nNntendo fan......makes sense.

Well seeing as Nintendo is more of a 1st party console one would expect a majority of their games to remain in the top selling charts every week/month. But that is just my opinion. Because I definitely don't have a single 3rd party game on my Switch currently.

Also so all Nintendo games that had a great first week and are 10mil or less have bad legs? Or any company for that matter? Just trying to be clear here for myself for future knowledge.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

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Marth said:
scottslater said:

See my updated post, you fail to see what my point is.  NA Video Game trends mirror Japanese Video Game trends currently, not a good sign for TLOU2 to perform well outside of Europe long term, even more so when you know that a PS5 version will be coming.

And you fail to read my post as well, I said the game was a failure in Japan compared to other genres and franchises. "it is still a failure compared to other games there is my point."

Care to link that claim highlighted?

https://www.famitsu.com/ranking/game-sales/before_last/

I don't know how your japanese is but the red bar is basically how much stock is available. It has 5 different stages.
Having it in the 80-100% range in first week shows that demand was very strong.

FF XV for example had problems selling through its first shitment in Japan and got discounted heavily to get rid of stock. Tlou2 has none of that. Rather the opposite.

Where do you get your info that NA is mirroring Japan when it comes to trends?
They behave very differently, especially when it comes to buying used copies and buying digital.

I said currently, buying used games is not exactly an easy thing right now and digital sales are up overall.  We don't have a great deal of data on US sales but we do get from Amazon (which has a good portion of the market and probably an increased amount at the moment with the current world situation) buying trends are very similar when looking at overall sales charts positions.  Hence why I asked if we had any data on US sales yet.



Nintendo with the Switch:

TheBlackNaruto said:
scottslater said:

Compared to Nintendo already with 9 in 3 years... And if we combine sales New Super Mario Bros. U makes it 10

Nintendo games are still on the top selling charts every week/month even years after release, Sony games do not do that.

And I didn't say they didn't sell well, I said they didn't have legs... almost every one of those games you listed had 25% of their sales in the first few weeks, that's not good legs and the TLOU has roughly 10m on the PS4

So you are a big nNntendo fan......makes sense.

Well seeing as Nintendo is more of a 1st party console one would expect a majority of their games to remain in the top selling charts every week/month. But that is just my opinion. Because I definitely don't have a single 3rd party game on my Switch currently.

Also so all Nintendo games that had a great first week and are 10mil or less have bad legs? Or any company for that matter? Just trying to be clear here for myself for future knowledge.

Yeah, I would view it that way about legs but it is a "subjective" topic overall.  If you fall off of best selling charts within a couple weeks/months after release that can't be a good thing for overall sales (even more so when you take into count the amount that these games get discounted and bundled) and making money.

I'm a Nintendo fan, but you provided some data and I provided data on what I think presents a better idea of what "legs" look like.

Doesn't really make sense to expect Nintendo 1st party console games to consistently do well and not expect Sony titles to do the same with how much people like to say that the PS4 is successful because of their 1st party games...



Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

So you are a big nNntendo fan......makes sense.

Well seeing as Nintendo is more of a 1st party console one would expect a majority of their games to remain in the top selling charts every week/month. But that is just my opinion. Because I definitely don't have a single 3rd party game on my Switch currently.

Also so all Nintendo games that had a great first week and are 10mil or less have bad legs? Or any company for that matter? Just trying to be clear here for myself for future knowledge.

Yeah, I would view it that way about legs but it is a "subjective" topic overall.  If you fall off of best selling charts within a couple weeks/months after release that can't be a good thing for overall sales (even more so when you take into count the amount that these games get discounted and bundled) and making money.

I'm a Nintendo fan, but you provided some data and I provided data on what I think presents a better idea of what "legs" look like.

Doesn't really make sense to expect Nintendo 1st party console games to consistently do well and not expect Sony titles to do the same with how much people like to say that the PS4 is successful because of their 1st party games...

 I would agree it is semi subjective as far as legs goes. So in saying that it means you could be right and others can be wrong and vice versa. Do you have any proof that says that if a game falls off the top selling charts in the first couple of weeks/months is always bad for a games overall sales and making money?  Or is that just your personal thought?

That a big part of why the PS4 has been successful, because of Sony 1st party games. Which have been doing consistently well. So I guess I don't see where the issue is. This generation has been one of the biggest if not THE biggest for Sony 1st party games and their sales. To think other wise would mean one would think that almost all Sony 1st party games before this generation did not do well.

So I guess I am just at a loss to how you came to your stance.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

12 mill,but sales will be more frontloaded compared to the first game.

Another 5 mill for the PS5 version.



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TheBlackNaruto said:
scottslater said:

Yeah, I would view it that way about legs but it is a "subjective" topic overall.  If you fall off of best selling charts within a couple weeks/months after release that can't be a good thing for overall sales (even more so when you take into count the amount that these games get discounted and bundled) and making money.

I'm a Nintendo fan, but you provided some data and I provided data on what I think presents a better idea of what "legs" look like.

Doesn't really make sense to expect Nintendo 1st party console games to consistently do well and not expect Sony titles to do the same with how much people like to say that the PS4 is successful because of their 1st party games...

 I would agree it is semi subjective as far as legs goes. So in saying that it means you could be right and others can be wrong and vice versa. Do you have any proof that says that if a game falls off the top selling charts in the first couple of weeks/months is always bad for a games overall sales and making money?  Or is that just your personal thought?

That a big part of why the PS4 has been successful, because of Sony 1st party games. Which have been doing consistently well. So I guess I don't see where the issue is. This generation has been one of the biggest if not THE biggest for Sony 1st party games and their sales. To think other wise would mean one would think that almost all Sony 1st party games before this generation did not do well.

So I guess I am just at a loss to how you came to your stance.

No, the PS4 was so successful is the same reason the PS2 was so successful, no competition.  Microsoft punted the launch of the Xbox One with how it was presented (forced hardware, always "online", how used games were handled, etc) and the WiiU was just as bad with how it was marketed.

For sure I could be wrong. Games are getting more and more expensive to make/market/etc and if you have to discount a game heavily shortly after it releases to keep sales up that can't be a good thing for the overall health of the brand.

Another thing about games falling off the charts, part of it is about building brands, you want people talking about your IPs for as long as possible and the easiest way to do that is to have games that sell well for extended periods of time and turn "evergreen", Sony games don't have that yet and IMO you need to have that otherwise you have situations like the PS3, Xbox One, WiiU, etc. When a game sells to less than 10% of your install base to me that means not enough people care about your exclusive games.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

Btw guys are you from UK or USA ?



I like Nintendo and Sony but more than this I love video games

scottslater said:
TheBlackNaruto said:

 I would agree it is semi subjective as far as legs goes. So in saying that it means you could be right and others can be wrong and vice versa. Do you have any proof that says that if a game falls off the top selling charts in the first couple of weeks/months is always bad for a games overall sales and making money?  Or is that just your personal thought?

That a big part of why the PS4 has been successful, because of Sony 1st party games. Which have been doing consistently well. So I guess I don't see where the issue is. This generation has been one of the biggest if not THE biggest for Sony 1st party games and their sales. To think other wise would mean one would think that almost all Sony 1st party games before this generation did not do well.

So I guess I am just at a loss to how you came to your stance.

No, the PS4 was so successful is the same reason the PS2 was so successful, no competition.

For sure I could be wrong. Games are getting more and more expensive to make/market/etc and if you have to discount a game heavily shortly after it releases to keep sales up that can't be a good thing for the overall health of the brand.

Another thing about games falling off the charts, part of it is about building brands, you want people talking about your IPs for as long as possible and the easiest way to do that is to have games that sell well for extended periods of time and turn "evergreen", Sony games don't have that yet and IMO you need to have that otherwise you have situations like the PS3, Xbox One, WiiU, etc. When a game sells to less than 10% of your install base to me that means not enough people care about your exclusive games.

So like more than 75% of the exclusives Nintendo published on the Switch?

Mario Maker 2 and everything below it covers that criteria.

Last edited by Marth - on 10 July 2020

German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

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The Nintendo Switch will maybe outsell the PS4



I like Nintendo and Sony but more than this I love video games

June NPD results will be out next week (on the 17th to be prescise)

And TLou 2 will lead that list for sure. And probably set some records as well.



German YouTuber and Streamer:
StarCraft and Fallout 4 currently.

Me trying to write reviews:
Octopath Traveler

Amazon thread