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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

 

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.17%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 3.98%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.93%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.53%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 260 22.03%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 170 14.41%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 179 15.17%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.71%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 62 5.25%
 
More than 20 million 104 8.81%
 
Total:1,180
kazuyamishima on 10 July 2020
scottslater said:
kazuyamishima said:

And those numbers are not updated since May 2019.

But yeah PS4 games have no legs...

5 titles hit 10 million sales in 7 years... yeah, not exactly lighting up the sales charts...

Considering that in the PS3 days only one title passed the 10 million mark, this is a big improvement.

Still, first and third party titles on the system are doing excellent, there are a really high number of titles that crossed the 10 million mark.

Aside of Minecraft, can you name a third party title that crossed the 5 million mark and your beloved switch??



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scottslater on 10 July 2020
kazuyamishima said:
scottslater said:

5 titles hit 10 million sales in 7 years... yeah, not exactly lighting up the sales charts...

Considering that in the PS3 days only one title passed the 10 million mark, this is a big improvement.

Still, first and third party titles on the system are doing excellent, there are a really high number of titles that crossed the 10 million mark.

Aside of Minecraft, can you name a third party title that crossed the 5 million mark and your beloved switch??

Agree, I'm glad they are starting to get better at selling their Exclusives, it's really important to longevity.

I'm sure some 3rd party titles have sold well on the Switch, but hard to get that sales data since most publishers don't give out that info (Nintendo is one of the few that do).



Nintendo with the Switch:

DonFerrari on 10 July 2020
scottslater said:
Marth said:

It did not crash and burn in Japan.

Where do people get those hot takes from? It is doing mostly as expected in the japanese market and performs better than the first game in the series.

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

Must be the reason MS do better in Japan than in Europe right? So as Japan first week was like 150k and ww 4M did europe sold 3M?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

scottslater on 10 July 2020
DonFerrari said:
scottslater said:

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

Must be the reason MS do better in Japan than in Europe right? So as Japan first week was like 150k and ww 4M did europe sold 3M?

Huh? What I said is buying trends are currently the same, so the game will have big front loaded sales in the US and then quickly drop off...  I didn't say the same quantities... I'm guessing Asia+rest of the world is going to be around 500k, US around 1.5 million, Europe 2 million



Nintendo with the Switch:

DonFerrari on 10 July 2020
scottslater said:
DonFerrari said:

Must be the reason MS do better in Japan than in Europe right? So as Japan first week was like 150k and ww 4M did europe sold 3M?

Huh? What I said is buying trends are currently the same, so the game will have big front loaded sales in the US and then quickly drop off...  I didn't say the same quantities... I'm guessing Asia+rest of the world is going to be around 500k, US around 1.5 million, Europe 2 million

You are just spouting non-sense. And just to note UC4 had a 78% drop in UK while TLOU2 80%, so a big drop second week is quite the norm for AAA games.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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JWeinCom on 10 July 2020
YanisFromFrance said:
The Nintendo Switch will maybe outsell the PS4

That really has nothing to do with this topic.



scottslater on 10 July 2020
DonFerrari said:
scottslater said:

Huh? What I said is buying trends are currently the same, so the game will have big front loaded sales in the US and then quickly drop off...  I didn't say the same quantities... I'm guessing Asia+rest of the world is going to be around 500k, US around 1.5 million, Europe 2 million

You are just spouting non-sense. And just to note UC4 had a 78% drop in UK while TLOU2 80%, so a big drop second week is quite the norm for AAA games.

What other AAA games have this big of a drop?  Just because ONE other title has had the same scenario doesn't make it a "norm". Also, Uncharted 4 had excellent legs and maintained top 10 selling status on the charts for weeks.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch:

DonFerrari on 10 July 2020
scottslater said:
DonFerrari said:

You are just spouting non-sense. And just to note UC4 had a 78% drop in UK while TLOU2 80%, so a big drop second week is quite the norm for AAA games.

What other AAA games have this big of a drop?  Just because ONE other title has had the same scenario doesn't make it a "norm". 

From the report and the thread on the drop for UK there were listed several games. But you can keep your doom and gloom if you preffer.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

JWeinCom on 10 July 2020

📣 Thread Warning

This thread is about TLOU 2 sales... The legs of other Sony games may relevant to the conversation. Comparing the legs of Sony games to Nintendo games is, as far as I can tell from reading the posts here, not relevant to the conversation, and has completely derailed the topic. 

Feel free to make another topic to discuss that particular issue, but keep this topic focused on TLOU 2 sales.



scottslater on 10 July 2020
DonFerrari said:
scottslater said:

What other AAA games have this big of a drop?  Just because ONE other title has had the same scenario doesn't make it a "norm". 

From the report and the thread on the drop for UK there were listed several games. But you can keep your doom and gloom if you preffer.

Link?  Because I haven't seen any list of it being a "norm".  Also, I'm not being Doom and gloom, I'm simply stating that this game faces a very particular difficult path of hitting the 10+ million status on the PS4.

UN4 had amazing legs when it came out, lasting weeks in the Top 10 (often reclaiming the #1 spot again) and with the Nintendo Switch dominating so many headlines compared to what UN4 had to deal with, I just don't see TLOU2 making that same kind of impact globally.  When the updated PS5 version comes it will really get the numbers it needs to hit what TLOU hit in terms of sales.

EDIT: Off topic but it's funny looking back at 2016 and seeing how much of an impact Pokemon Go had on the series that year.

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

Nintendo with the Switch: