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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

 

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.17%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 3.98%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.93%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.53%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 260 22.03%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 170 14.41%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 179 15.17%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.71%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 62 5.25%
 
More than 20 million 104 8.81%
 
Total:1,180
kazuyamishima on 09 July 2020
DonFerrari said:
Alec_J said:
Hmmm, are they counting "shipped" copies among the "sold" copies. There are piles of the game in countries like Japan sitting on shelves, and being given away with other purchases. Something about that announcement of "4 million" in sales doesnt add up. There have been no actual sales numbers released, as far as i can tell.

All that said, whatever it has sold so far, double it.....i think that will be what it ends up selling. Itll go on sale and then be listed in every Playstation Store sale for a year, and all the people who wait to buy games for the price to decrease will start buying it. Itll do fine. Sony doesnt let their properties fall out of the spotlight until they have reached their sales potential.

It have broke records in all places that released notes. Sony sure is using mostly shipped, but they also have digital sales (which amount to more than 50% of sales nowadays), they have access to everyone that installed or obtained a trophy, most of what is shipped on day one comes from pre-orders, etc.

So unless you have credible source to challenge 4 millions, which would prove Sony is lying on a statement that would be a fraud on USA law due to being publically traded company, then you'lll have to accept it sold 4M on the first weekend, which aligns with the increase of sales records the big hitters of Sony have been achieving since UC4 with each exclusive beating the previous.

Don’t feed them, there are still a few left, there were more just before release and up until last week, but after the HUGE success of this game, most of them started to disappear, still a few left tho. 



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scottslater on 10 July 2020

Have we had any data on US sales? When UK makes up such a small percentage of overall sales of Video Games it isn't good to assume the game is doing well everywhere, it already crashed and burned in the Japanese market in terms of sales and I would say that the US market tends to follow more of the Japanese market than the European market in terms of Video Game buying trends.



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scottslater on 10 July 2020
Marth said:
scottslater said:
Have we had any data on US sales? When UK makes up such a small percentage of overall sales of Video Games it isn't good to assume the game is doing well everywhere, it already crashed and burned in the Japanese market in terms of sales and I would say that the US market tends to follow more of the Japanese market than the European market in terms of Video Game buying trends.

It did not crash and burn in Japan.

Where do people get those hot takes from? It is doing mostly as expected in the japanese market and performs better than the first game in the series.

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.



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hinch on 10 July 2020
scottslater said:
Marth said:

It did not crash and burn in Japan.

Where do people get those hot takes from? It is doing mostly as expected in the japanese market and performs better than the first game in the series.

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

Its trending the same way other NaughtyDog games have done in Japan - i.e Uncharted 4. Video games sales are always front loaded.

Just wait for sales figures in a few weeks. I would highly doubt it will drop off due to controversy. If anything this will keep sales going.



scottslater on 10 July 2020
hinch said:
scottslater said:

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

Its trending the same way other NaughtyDog games have done in Japan - i.e Uncharted 4. Video games sales are always front loaded.

Just wait for sales figures in a few weeks. I would highly doubt it will drop off due to controversy. If anything this will keep sales going.

No, Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded because most of the install base don't care about them so they don't have legs.  3rd party and Nintendo games have legs and sell well even years after their release.  It's why you see Animal Crossing, MK, CoD, FIFA, etc every month in top selling charts and games like FF7 fall of after a couple of weeks.



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Barkley on 10 July 2020

scottslater said:

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

It had the highest selling launch of any PS4 exclusive, and you think it will sell less than half of games like Uncharted 4 or Spiderman? Ok bud.

It'll be over 10m sold by the end of the year.



scottslater on 10 July 2020
Marth said:
scottslater said:

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

Did I stutter or what?

It did NOT crash and burn in Japan.

If anything it did better than most games of its kind. Digital ratio will be strong compared to many other games in Japan.
It sold out its initial shipment easily and did not need price drops to sell. But it is a western action adventure in Japan on the PS4 so the appeal was always going to be limited. It would NEVER perform like a Final Fantasy or Monster Hunter or even a Gran Turismo.

I know there are people out there that want to see this game fail badly by any means but they are grasping at straws here.

Tlou2 performance is fine and worldwide its doing great. Don't kid yourselves.

Did I stutter? Anyway you slice it, it is still a failure overall in that market, period, and the Japanese market is very important to overall success.

Just because it has performed better than the last game doesn't mean anything.  No one is "grasping" at straws here, I'm asking for very relevant sales data to get an idea of how it is performing, the NA market will be the most important market for this game in terms of it being successful overall in terms of sales.  You have to remember that TLOU got a sales boost by being included in a console bundle.



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KLXVER on 10 July 2020

GameStop is closing down in my country, so I bought the Collectors Edition for 50% off. Awesome statue of Ellie



scottslater on 10 July 2020
Barkley said:

scottslater said:

Yeah, crash and burn was expected and is already down to #5 in the chart.  And as I said, the US buying trends tend to match the Japanese market more than the European market which isn't a good sign for this game.  It will not have legs and no one will be talking about the game in a couple months just like FF7.  FF7 has already been outsold on Amazon this year by games 3 years old...  Sony Exclusives are heavily front loaded and trail off quickly and with the new systems coming this year I just don't see the PS4 version selling any better than how the PS3 version of the first game did.

It had the highest selling launch of any PS4 exclusive, and you think it will sell less than half of games like Uncharted 4 or Spiderman? Ok bud.

It'll be over 10m sold by the end of the year.

Most likely after they discount the game massively and/or do a console bundle like they have had to do for their other exclusives...  As for "selling better" to clarify I mean legs, not quantity. 

For the record, I voted for 9-9.9 so I think the game will still sell just fine, but without the Japanese market I don't see it hitting 10 million before it is heavily impacted by the PS5 debut and other new games... it is already being outsold by Paper Mario, Animal Crossing, and Mario Kart 8 on Amazon...

Last edited by scottslater - on 10 July 2020

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scottslater on 10 July 2020
Marth said:
scottslater said:

Did I stutter? Anyway you slice it, it is still a failure overall in that market, period, and the Japanese market is very important to overall success.

Just because it has performed better than the last game doesn't mean anything.  No one is "grasping" at straws here, I'm asking for very relevant sales data to get an idea of how it is performing, the NA market will be the most important market for this game in terms of it being successful overall in terms of sales.  You have to remember that TLOU got a sales boost by being included in a console bundle.

Except it is not a failure at all in Japan. Do you read what I wrote?

It opened around 30% better than Tlou1 WITHOUT DIGITAL and is now already at over 90% of Part 1 LIFETIME SALES, still WITHOUT DIGITAL which should account to at least 20%.

The game has yet to recieve a price cut, bundle or a holiday season and already outsold its predecessor and is in the top 10 of SIE published titles in Japan. AFTER 3 WEEKS!

The Famitsu data is completely out there you can look it up. Just because you saw -80% somewhere and came to some silly conclusions is completely on you.

The data shows it did not fail in the slightest.

We can play this little game further.

Guess which game easly took Nr 1 Spot in the June PSN charts of US and EU?

We already know it is the fastest selling Sony game after its first 3 days with 4M sold thorugh. Which is 700k (20%) more than Spiderman did. In the summer of all seasons. No holiday or black friday boost to speak of.

Other fun facts? Sure

Top 10 yearly amazon chart in Canada and France
2x Top 10 in yearly amazon UK
Top 15 in yearly amazon chart in Germany and the US

The chance of this game selling less than 10M are pretty much 0.
You can try to spin this all you want. The game did not fail.

Quite the opposite it is doing excpetional. Deal with it.

So because it did well compared to other failures it's not a failure?  That's not how this works, it is still a failure compared to other games there is my point.

Sure, those facts are fun but irrelevant to what I am saying, it will not have legs.  EVERY Sony exclusive has this trend, huge front loaded sales then fade into obscurity.  I'm not saying the game is a failure or will be a failure.  What I'm saying is I don't think it will have the legs to get to 10 million because a PS5 version will kill it just like how the PS3 version of the first game was killed by a PS4 version.



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