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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

 

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

Less than 7 million 120 10.22%
 
7.0 - 7.9 million 47 4.00%
 
8.0 - 8.9 million 70 5.96%
 
9.0 - 9.9 million 77 6.56%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 259 22.06%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 169 14.40%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 177 15.08%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 91 7.75%
 
18.0 - 20.0 million 61 5.20%
 
More than 20 million 103 8.77%
 
Total:1,174

10m by years end is a a given and actually low balling. I can't see it suddenly just stop selling, so I will go with 18m. It will be a premiere game for the early years of the PS5's life, especially this christmas and will probably be 12m by January.

I Imagine ND will have a unlocked 4k Patch come November.



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Otter said:

10m by years end is a a given and actually low balling. I can't see it suddenly just stop selling, so I will go with 18m. It will be a premiere game for the early years of the PS5's life, especially this christmas and will probably be 12m by January.

I Imagine ND will have a unlocked 4k Patch come November.

Considering the full BC, I also imagine the exclusives of PS4 mostly having a good enhanced mode (or for older titles even a remastered) that costed very little to make and will impulse the sales of those titles and give a more enticing library for the early PS5.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Otter said:

10m by years end is a a given and actually low balling. I can't see it suddenly just stop selling, so I will go with 18m. It will be a premiere game for the early years of the PS5's life, especially this christmas and will probably be 12m by January.

I Imagine ND will have a unlocked 4k Patch come November.

Considering the full BC, I also imagine the exclusives of PS4 mostly having a good enhanced mode (or for older titles even a remastered) that costed very little to make and will impulse the sales of those titles and give a more enticing library for the early PS5.

Honestly, some of these PS4 games with a unlocked framerate and native 4k will look better then many next gen launch titles. GOW/TLOU2/Horizon amongst them



Otter said:
DonFerrari said:

Considering the full BC, I also imagine the exclusives of PS4 mostly having a good enhanced mode (or for older titles even a remastered) that costed very little to make and will impulse the sales of those titles and give a more enticing library for the early PS5.

Honestly, some of these PS4 games with a unlocked framerate and native 4k will look better then many next gen launch titles. GOW/TLOU2/Horizon amongst them

I think it will have even more improvements than that.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Hmmm, are they counting "shipped" copies among the "sold" copies. There are piles of the game in countries like Japan sitting on shelves, and being given away with other purchases. Something about that announcement of "4 million" in sales doesnt add up. There have been no actual sales numbers released, as far as i can tell.

All that said, whatever it has sold so far, double it.....i think that will be what it ends up selling. Itll go on sale and then be listed in every Playstation Store sale for a year, and all the people who wait to buy games for the price to decrease will start buying it. Itll do fine. Sony doesnt let their properties fall out of the spotlight until they have reached their sales potential.



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Alec_J said:
Hmmm, are they counting "shipped" copies among the "sold" copies. There are piles of the game in countries like Japan sitting on shelves, and being given away with other purchases. Something about that announcement of "4 million" in sales doesnt add up. There have been no actual sales numbers released, as far as i can tell.

All that said, whatever it has sold so far, double it.....i think that will be what it ends up selling. Itll go on sale and then be listed in every Playstation Store sale for a year, and all the people who wait to buy games for the price to decrease will start buying it. Itll do fine. Sony doesnt let their properties fall out of the spotlight until they have reached their sales potential.

It have broke records in all places that released notes. Sony sure is using mostly shipped, but they also have digital sales (which amount to more than 50% of sales nowadays), they have access to everyone that installed or obtained a trophy, most of what is shipped on day one comes from pre-orders, etc.

So unless you have credible source to challenge 4 millions, which would prove Sony is lying on a statement that would be a fraud on USA law due to being publically traded company, then you'lll have to accept it sold 4M on the first weekend, which aligns with the increase of sales records the big hitters of Sony have been achieving since UC4 with each exclusive beating the previous.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
Alec_J said:
Hmmm, are they counting "shipped" copies among the "sold" copies. There are piles of the game in countries like Japan sitting on shelves, and being given away with other purchases. Something about that announcement of "4 million" in sales doesnt add up. There have been no actual sales numbers released, as far as i can tell.

All that said, whatever it has sold so far, double it.....i think that will be what it ends up selling. Itll go on sale and then be listed in every Playstation Store sale for a year, and all the people who wait to buy games for the price to decrease will start buying it. Itll do fine. Sony doesnt let their properties fall out of the spotlight until they have reached their sales potential.

It have broke records in all places that released notes. Sony sure is using mostly shipped, but they also have digital sales (which amount to more than 50% of sales nowadays), they have access to everyone that installed or obtained a trophy, most of what is shipped on day one comes from pre-orders, etc.

So unless you have credible source to challenge 4 millions, which would prove Sony is lying on a statement that would be a fraud on USA law due to being publically traded company, then you'lll have to accept it sold 4M on the first weekend, which aligns with the increase of sales records the big hitters of Sony have been achieving since UC4 with each exclusive beating the previous.

Don’t feed them, there are still a few left, there were more just before release and up until last week, but after the HUGE success of this game, most of them started to disappear, still a few left tho. 



Alec_J said:
Hmmm, are they counting "shipped" copies among the "sold" copies. There are piles of the game in countries like Japan sitting on shelves, and being given away with other purchases. Something about that announcement of "4 million" in sales doesnt add up. There have been no actual sales numbers released, as far as i can tell.

All that said, whatever it has sold so far, double it.....i think that will be what it ends up selling. Itll go on sale and then be listed in every Playstation Store sale for a year, and all the people who wait to buy games for the price to decrease will start buying it. Itll do fine. Sony doesnt let their properties fall out of the spotlight until they have reached their sales potential.

This is completely false.



Have we had any data on US sales? When UK makes up such a small percentage of overall sales of Video Games it isn't good to assume the game is doing well everywhere, it already crashed and burned in the Japanese market in terms of sales and I would say that the US market tends to follow more of the Japanese market than the European market in terms of Video Game buying trends.



Nintendo with the Switch:

scottslater said:
Have we had any data on US sales? When UK makes up such a small percentage of overall sales of Video Games it isn't good to assume the game is doing well everywhere, it already crashed and burned in the Japanese market in terms of sales and I would say that the US market tends to follow more of the Japanese market than the European market in terms of Video Game buying trends.

It did not crash and burn in Japan.

Where do people get those hot takes from? It is doing mostly as expected in the japanese market and performs better than the first game in the series.