I said 10-11.9mil, but only bc the ps5 is 5mo from releasing. Wouldnt surprise me if it exceeds that number, but there are several unknowns and variables thatll impact its sales. Most significant factors will be when the ps5 remaster releases and how widespread the negative word of mouth truly is.
The negative word of mouth does seem to be from a minority, considering the launch sales. Two anecdotes, though, include 1. my best friend, whos declined to play TLoUp2 (in part due to the leaks); and 2. A patient of mine today, who plays everything Ps4, said he had no plan to buy it bc his friends gave negative reviews. My review changed his mind tho :)
Bonus question: TLoU has to be #1 for me, though the more time that passes since finishing TLoUp2, and the more spoilercasts I listen to, the more I realize how freakin beautiful TLoUp2 was. So much incredible symbolism, and both likes and dislikes, its one of the most unique games Ive ever played. (!!!SPOILER!!!) But the infamous death was just so damn hard for me to deal with. It broke me.