Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict sales of TLOU2 on PS4

How much TLOU2 will sell first week?

0-1M 1 1.39%
 
1.1-2M 2 2.78%
 
2.1-3M 6 8.33%
 
3.1-4M 20 27.78%
 
4.1-5M 16 22.22%
 
5.1-6M 15 20.83%
 
6.1-7M 3 4.17%
 
7.1-8M 0 0.00%
 
8.1-9M 1 1.39%
 
9.1-10M 8 11.11%
 
Total:72

I absolutely have no idea anymore,should sell well in the first weeks but the longer its out the more the negativity can effect it.



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God of War did 3.1 Million in 3 days.
Spiderman did 3.3 Million in 3 days.
Final Fantasy VII Remake did 3.5 Million in 3 days.

The Last of Us Part 2 will probably be between 3.5 to 4 Million, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it go beyond 4.

The hype is real.



                            

I originally predicted 4.1-5mil, but I’m no longer sure. Only thing I’m judging by is the Amazon US bestsellers hourly chart. I didn’t see TLoUp2 move to #1 a single time in the last week; highest I saw it was #3 or 4. The two games I compare it to are HZD and God of War. Both of those reached the #1 spot around 2-3wk from release iirc. That fact was actually the primary reason I predicted before HZD’s launch that it could reach 10mil in lifetime sales.

Anywho, everything else about TLoUp2 (TLoU’s sales, the hype, etc.) makes me think it’s going to destroy all other PS games’ launch week records and sell 15mil+ LT—except for the Amazon US charts. Is it possible that the spoilers really did negatively impact people’s purchase decision for TLoUp2? I feel like, relatively speaking, a small percentage of people planning to buy TLoUp2 ultimately saw the spoilers. I didn’t, but my friend did, and he said he isn’t planning to buy or play TLoUp2 anytime soon. Or maybe the TLoU was so popular that a higher percentage of people preordered it far in advance compared to HZD/God of War? Or maybe it will have a smaller than expected launch due to spoilers/controversy, but then word of mouth will give it very long legs. Either way, can’t wait to get launch week sales! Oh, and also to play the game tonight after work. :)



4.2m first week
18m LTD on PS4
Additional 10m on PS5.



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I hope it tanks, so Sony can shake things up and put ND's shit together for the better. But I'm not sure. There are several examples of review bombed games with huge sales.

(yes, I know I'll be banned for saying this).



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ESCROTO said:
I hope it tanks, so Sony can shake things up and put ND's shit together for the better. But I'm not sure. There are several examples of review bombed games with huge sales.

(yes, I know I'll be banned for saying this).

You are being banned for skipping ban by doing alt account to keep attacking and posting the same stuff.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Carl said:
God of War did 3.1 Million in 3 days.
Spiderman did 3.3 Million in 3 days.
Final Fantasy VII Remake did 3.5 Million in 3 days.

The Last of Us Part 2 will probably be between 3.5 to 4 Million, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it go beyond 4.

The hype is real.

you can't compare God of War and Spiderman with Final Fantasy, that's sales VS shipments.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

First week 3 million, first month 5-6 million.

Let’s see with the 1st game selling 8 and the PS4 version selling 11 million I think the game will sell 6 million lifetime on PS4 and the PS5 version (likely with the cut multiplayer to further demand) will sell 8-10 million lifetime. Bundles for the holidays should impact greatly if done.

It’s on the lower end of predictions, that’s just because the story is more divisive then the near universally loved 1st games story.



 

 

sales2099 said:
First week 3 million, first month 5-6 million.

Let’s see with the 1st game selling 8 and the PS4 version selling 11 million I think the game will sell 6 million lifetime on PS4 and the PS5 version (likely with the cut multiplayer to further demand) will sell 8-10 million lifetime. Bundles for the holidays should impact greatly if done.

It’s on the lower end of predictions, that’s just because the story is more divisive then the near universally loved 1st games story.

Whoa so you are saying that arguably one of if not the BIGGEST current PS4 exclusive will only do 6 million lifetime on PS4? So less that Spidey, GoW, Horizon etc.....wow. Now that is a bold prediction man.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

Ryng said:
Carl said:
God of War did 3.1 Million in 3 days.
Spiderman did 3.3 Million in 3 days.
Final Fantasy VII Remake did 3.5 Million in 3 days.

The Last of Us Part 2 will probably be between 3.5 to 4 Million, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it go beyond 4.

The hype is real.

you can't compare God of War and Spiderman with Final Fantasy, that's sales VS shipments.

Most of the FFVIIR was digital, and they basically sold out on the physical version to the point SE said they underestimated their sales potential for physical.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994