Forums - Sales Discussion - Predict sales of TLOU2 on PS4

How much TLOU2 will sell first week?

0-1M 1 1.39%
 
1.1-2M 2 2.78%
 
2.1-3M 6 8.33%
 
3.1-4M 20 27.78%
 
4.1-5M 16 22.22%
 
5.1-6M 15 20.83%
 
6.1-7M 3 4.17%
 
7.1-8M 0 0.00%
 
8.1-9M 1 1.39%
 
9.1-10M 8 11.11%
 
Total:72

Spider-Man currently holds the record for PS4 exclusive launch at 3,3 mil in the first week. I definitely expect this to top that though I don't think it will completely shatter the record either. I'm going with 4,1 mil.



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Whoops answered the poll based on the thread title and not the poll title.

I predict 2.5m first 7 days.



PS4(PS5 Soon)and PC gaming

There's only 2 races: White and 'Political Agenda'
2 Genders: Male and 'Political Agenda'
2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
2 Sexualities: Straight and 'Political Agenda'

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UnderwaterFunktown said:
Spider-Man currently holds the record for PS4 exclusive launch at 3,3 mil in the first week. I definitely expect this to top that though I don't think it will completely shatter the record either. I'm going with 4,1 mil.

Well if we count timed exclusive FFVIIR broke that record.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Will TLOU2 take the US NPD Exclusive Launch Record?

-----

1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales

1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.592 millions, DEC 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)

2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, SEP 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)

2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, SEP 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, NOV 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, NOV 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

5/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), NOV 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)

7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, MAR 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)

8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, SEP 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)

9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, MAR2008

10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, OCT 2004

11/ God of War : 1.9 millions**, APR 2018 (16 days / 3 weeks tracking)

* includes digital

** includes digital and bundle copies.

-----


SwSh and ACNH are absent due to lack of available numbers. Smash's 3,592K above excludes digital (NoA tweeted that 5M was total sell-through on 1/30/19, so Digital sales in DEC 18 cannot have been higher than 1.4M (more realistically, not higher than 1M).

SwSh: Nintendo confirmed that SwSh did >2M for the opening weekend and also confirmed >3M by the end of NPD November in "the Americas", so NPD US month must have been around 2.7M in 16 days of tracking. Makes the list but no way it got to the top if the highest figure Nintendo shared was 3M.

ACNH: We got a hint/leak in the March ERA thread indicating 1.8-1.9M for NPD for 16 days tracked. Nintendo themselves indicated ~50% global digital share for US/EUR/JP when they gave their 13.4M sell-through figure through 5.5 weeks, and we know JP was around 23%, so digital split in US/EUR combined was around 59%. That would suggest 4.4-4.6M for the US opening month if the 1.8-1.9M physical was accurate, so either that or SSBU are the top spot.

TLOU2 will have digital included and will have 16 tracked days inside of the June period (6/19 - 7/4). Can it take the top spot from SSBU? If it can push past 4.5M then even SSBU w/digital would be topped. Hopefully we get leaks, but if the sales are high enough perhaps NPD will acknowledge it themselves.



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ArchangelMadzz said:
Whoops answered the poll based on the thread title and not the poll title.

I predict 2.5m first 7 days.

Preorders are tracking ahead of Spiderman and that hit 3.3m in the first 3 days. Gonna higher than that.

With whats going on the world, and people spending more time on video games, its gonna pull in huge numbers. I think 4.5m.

Edit: ah someone else pointed it out nvm.

Last edited by hinch - on 17 June 2020

mk7sx said:

Will TLOU2 take the US NPD Exclusive Launch Record?

-----

1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales

1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.592 millions, DEC 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)

2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, SEP 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)

2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, SEP 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, NOV 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, NOV 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

5/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), NOV 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)

7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, MAR 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)

8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, SEP 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)

9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, MAR2008

10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, OCT 2004

11/ God of War : 1.9 millions**, APR 2018 (16 days / 3 weeks tracking)

* includes digital

** includes digital and bundle copies.

-----


SwSh and ACNH are absent due to lack of available numbers. Smash's 3,592K above excludes digital (NoA tweeted that 5M was total sell-through on 1/30/19, so Digital sales in DEC 18 cannot have been higher than 1.4M (more realistically, not higher than 1M).

SwSh: Nintendo confirmed that SwSh did >2M for the opening weekend and also confirmed >3M by the end of NPD November in "the Americas", so NPD US month must have been around 2.7M in 16 days of tracking. Makes the list but no way it got to the top if the highest figure Nintendo shared was 3M.

ACNH: We got a hint/leak in the March ERA thread indicating 1.8-1.9M for NPD for 16 days tracked. Nintendo themselves indicated ~50% global digital share for US/EUR/JP when they gave their 13.4M sell-through figure through 5.5 weeks, and we know JP was around 23%, so digital split in US/EUR combined was around 59%. That would suggest 4.4-4.6M for the US opening month if the 1.8-1.9M physical was accurate, so either that or SSBU are the top spot.

TLOU2 will have digital included and will have 16 tracked days inside of the June period (6/19 - 7/4). Can it take the top spot from SSBU? If it can push past 4.5M then even SSBU w/digital would be topped. Hopefully we get leaks, but if the sales are high enough perhaps NPD will acknowledge it themselves.

SSBU is hard to top simply because it has 5 weeks tracked and in a holiday month as well. I think Halo 3 still has the most impressive opening: 3.3 million in 12 days.

I think TLOU has a shot at 3 million for 16 days.



It's gonna be the biggest first week for a Playstation exclusive.

Uncharted 4 sold 2.7 million at launch, Gow 3.1 million and Spiderman 3.3 million, i think we can see 4 million.



2020 predictions: NSW 25m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 11m, XB1 4m

In December 2019 i predicted 21m Switch, 9m PS4 and 3m XB1, but that was before COVID, obvius increased my predictions.

hinch said:
ArchangelMadzz said:
Whoops answered the poll based on the thread title and not the poll title.

I predict 2.5m first 7 days.

Preorders are tracking ahead of Spiderman and that hit 3.3m in the first 3 days. Gonna higher than that.

With whats going on the world, and people spending more time on video games, its gonna pull in huge numbers. I think 4.5m.

Edit: ah someone else pointed it out nvm.

I posted that without knowing that Spiderman hit 3.3m. Didn't know it sold that well damn.

Make that 4.5m for TLOU2 aha



PS4(PS5 Soon)and PC gaming

There's only 2 races: White and 'Political Agenda'
2 Genders: Male and 'Political Agenda'
2 Hairstyles for female characters: Long and 'Political Agenda'
2 Sexualities: Straight and 'Political Agenda'

First week: Maybe ca. 3-5 Million ?
Overall: More than 10-15 Million Units.

The Last of Us 2 is very impressive. Its maybe the best Quality of Videogames, currently. Hope the best for this fantastic game!



Game of the Year 2020: Ghost of Tsushima, Persona 5 Royal or The Last of Us 2 ?!