Whoops answered the poll based on the thread title and not the poll title.

I predict 2.5m first 7 days.

Well if we count timed exclusive FFVIIR broke that record.

Will TLOU2 take the US NPD Exclusive Launch Record?

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1st Month U.S. Best-Selling Exclusives - Unit Sales

1/ Super Smash Bros. Ultimate 3.592 millions, DEC 2018 (30 days / 5 weeks tracking)

2/ Halo 3 : 3.3 millions, SEP 2007 (12 days / 2 weeks tracking)

2/ Halo Reach : 3.3 millions, SEP 2010 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

4/ Halo 2 : 3.27 millions, NOV 2004 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

5/ Halo 4 : 3.2 millions, NOV 2012 (19 days / 3 weeks tracking)

5/ Pokemon Sun+Moon : ~3.2 millions (estimate), NOV 2016 (9 days / 2 weeks tracking)

7/ Super Smash Bros Brawl : 2.7 millions, MAR 2008 (27 days / 4 weeks tracking)

8/ Spiderman : 2.6+ millions*, SEP 2018 (23 days / 4 weeks tracking)

9/ Pokemon Black & White : 2.5 millions, MAR2008

10/ GTA San Andreas : 2.06 millions, OCT 2004

11/ God of War : 1.9 millions**, APR 2018 (16 days / 3 weeks tracking)

* includes digital

** includes digital and bundle copies.

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SwSh and ACNH are absent due to lack of available numbers. Smash's 3,592K above excludes digital (NoA tweeted that 5M was total sell-through on 1/30/19, so Digital sales in DEC 18 cannot have been higher than 1.4M (more realistically, not higher than 1M).

SwSh: Nintendo confirmed that SwSh did >2M for the opening weekend and also confirmed >3M by the end of NPD November in "the Americas", so NPD US month must have been around 2.7M in 16 days of tracking. Makes the list but no way it got to the top if the highest figure Nintendo shared was 3M.

ACNH: We got a hint/leak in the March ERA thread indicating 1.8-1.9M for NPD for 16 days tracked. Nintendo themselves indicated ~50% global digital share for US/EUR/JP when they gave their 13.4M sell-through figure through 5.5 weeks, and we know JP was around 23%, so digital split in US/EUR combined was around 59%. That would suggest 4.4-4.6M for the US opening month if the 1.8-1.9M physical was accurate, so either that or SSBU are the top spot.

TLOU2 will have digital included and will have 16 tracked days inside of the June period (6/19 - 7/4). Can it take the top spot from SSBU? If it can push past 4.5M then even SSBU w/digital would be topped. Hopefully we get leaks, but if the sales are high enough perhaps NPD will acknowledge it themselves.

Preorders are tracking ahead of Spiderman and that hit 3.3m in the first 3 days. Gonna higher than that.

With whats going on the world, and people spending more time on video games, its gonna pull in huge numbers. I think 4.5m.

Edit: ah someone else pointed it out nvm.

SSBU is hard to top simply because it has 5 weeks tracked and in a holiday month as well. I think Halo 3 still has the most impressive opening: 3.3 million in 12 days.

I think TLOU has a shot at 3 million for 16 days.

It's gonna be the biggest first week for a Playstation exclusive.

Uncharted 4 sold 2.7 million at launch, Gow 3.1 million and Spiderman 3.3 million, i think we can see 4 million.

I posted that without knowing that Spiderman hit 3.3m. Didn't know it sold that well damn.

Make that 4.5m for TLOU2 aha

First week: Maybe ca. 3-5 Million ?
Overall: More than 10-15 Million Units.

The Last of Us 2 is very impressive. Its maybe the best Quality of Videogames, currently. Hope the best for this fantastic game!

I absolutely have no idea anymore,should sell well in the first weeks but the longer its out the more the negativity can effect it.

God of War did 3.1 Million in 3 days.
Spiderman did 3.3 Million in 3 days.
Final Fantasy VII Remake did 3.5 Million in 3 days.

The Last of Us Part 2 will probably be between 3.5 to 4 Million, but I wouldn't at all be surprised to see it go beyond 4.

The hype is real.