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Forums - Sales Discussion - May NPD 2020: Switch ~530K; PS4/XBO >150K

i think you are forgetting that animal crossing is basically the number one biggest IP in japan, with new leaf and wild world both being the best selling games of their generations domestically. it is absolutely as rare as you say that a game causes such a significant and extended boost to hardware sales, but if anything is an exception, it is animal crossing.

i have zero doubt that without corona, new horizons would still handily become switch's number one title, and thus have a bigger, more pronounced effect on hardware than any other switch game.



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If a poster can't comprehend how the biggest game of all time in Japan can move hardware or how a game that appeals to female games can be the main cause of a spike of demand for the Nintendo Switch, I don't think it's worth your time to argue with him.

"Assertions", nope dude it's a game that is going to break all the records by the end of its first calendar year on the market. Comparing this to Splatoon on the Wii U, isn't the aptest comparison because there is actually no comparison for how well New Horizon is doing in a non-holiday quarter or how well Switch is selling compared to Wii U. Although COVID could be a major impact for the video game industry in Europe and North America - in Japan it was a non-factor. 

FAMITSU TOP SELLING GAMES JAPAN ALL TIME(physical):

10. Animal Crossing: New Leaf (3DS) - 5.067.988

11. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Switch) - 4.860.488

12. Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP) - 4.850.000

TOP 15 Switch Famitsu 2020(w/out New Horizon):

  1. Pokemon Sword / Shield - 632.934
  2. Ring Fit Adventure - 510.430
  3. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 327.445
  4. Smash Ultimate - 272.264
  5. Minecraft - 267.961
  6. Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Rescue Team DX - 258.185
  7. Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch - 212.375
  8. Super Mario Party - 203.628
  9. Splatoon 2 - 202.582
  10. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 147.436
  11. Super Mario Maker 2 -124.901
  12. Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games: Tokyo 2020 - 119.007
  13. One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 - 117.954
  14. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 116.147
  15. Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition - 115.525

TOTAL: 3.628.774



Shadow1980 said:
Agente42 said:

you are wrong, Nintendo switch, until now, is severe supply problems. Lotteries anywhere. The sales are not in decline or become or same status to the pre-AC level. The sales is bigger than same period now, with supply problems. 

The covid problem helps, but is not the mainline driver. Animal Crossing is. 

But there is one thing we know absolutely for certain: Only one game ever in the history of the Japanese market—ONE, out of however many tens of thousands of console games released since Famitsu started tracking sales—has caused a boost to hardware sales lasting for more than two months, and it was for a system with already poor sales.

What game are you alluding to there? FF VII or Splatoon? Because afaik both pushed their respective consoles to new longer term heights in terms of sales.

In any case, I can turn your argument against you: Just because you think it can't because only one game according to your data had given a console a 2 months+ sales push and think that this couldn't possibly happen again doesn't mean it can't happen again.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
Shadow1980 said:

But there is one thing we know absolutely for certain: Only one game ever in the history of the Japanese market—ONE, out of however many tens of thousands of console games released since Famitsu started tracking sales—has caused a boost to hardware sales lasting for more than two months, and it was for a system with already poor sales.

What game are you alluding to there? FF VII or Splatoon? Because afaik both pushed their respective consoles to new longer term heights in terms of sales.

In any case, I can turn your argument against you: Just because you think it can't because only one game according to your data had given a console a 2 months+ sales push and think that this couldn't possibly happen again doesn't mean it can't happen again.

Can you name a game that actually is impacted hardware almost a year after release? Hint it’s an rpg that you have to do workouts to atk and move with and it’s on the NSW now



Shadow1980 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

What game are you alluding to there? FF VII or Splatoon? Because afaik both pushed their respective consoles to new longer term heights in terms of sales.

In any case, I can turn your argument against you: Just because you think it can't because only one game according to your data had given a console a 2 months+ sales push and think that this couldn't possibly happen again doesn't mean it can't happen again.

Splatoon. It caused a significant increase in baseline Wii U sales from its release in late May 2015 through to the remainder of the year. So, we're talking about a period of just over six months where there was an increase in sales over the previous baseline (and YoY) that appears attributable to just a single game.

FF7's effect in Japan appears less pronounced than in the U.S. The PS1 was already out for ten months in Japan before it came out in the U.S., and three separate price cuts created continuous growth, culminating in a strong holiday in 1996. While it wasn't exactly posting huge numbers for 1996 as a whole, there was still major growth over 1995, and it was already utterly outclassing the N64, which was nearly dead on arrival in Japan.

There was a spike the week FF7 came out, then a drop for two weeks, then several weeks of grow culminating in a big week in Week 13 (even bigger than FF7 week), then sales began to drop off to a much lower baseline (with a mid-year spike associated with SaGa Frontier and Derby Stallion, which were popular titles for the PS1 in Japan). The growth from weeks 8-14 (with the big spike in Week 13) doesn't appear to be associated with any other game, so that is likely due to FF7 (maybe there were stock issues that kept the early rush depressed?).

So FF7 does appear to have affected sales for about 2-3 months (a bit longer than the norm, but vastly shorter than the Splatoon boost we would see 18 years later), but by roughly around mid-spring of 1997 sales were at a baseline roughly on par to where they were in Q3 1996. December 1997 was the PS1's biggest December, but that was preceded by a price cut in November.

Meanwhile, in the U.S. the PS1 was struggling in 1996, and while price cuts did result in sales growth, it was getting beat by the N64 on through August 1997 (in fact, the N64 sold almost as much in just 14 weeks of 1996 as the PS1 did that entire year). Then FF7 was released in September, the PS1 experienced a huge jump in sales and completely left the N64 in the dust. In the 4-month period of Sept.-Dec. 1997, the PS1 nearly doubled its lifetime sales in the U.S., and it retained significant momentum on throughout 1998 (with the latter third of 1998 getting a boost from a price cut. There was nothing else besides FF7 that could explain that huge increase in sales and radical shift in market share. So, FF7 was absolutely instrumental in pushing the PS1 into the forefront in the U.S. That was an extremely unusual situation there, and nothing has ever replicated the FF7 effect in the U.S.

Individual games producing long-term hardware growth is just such an extremely rare phenomenon that I am absolutely skeptical that Animal Crossing could have had the same effect. With the way stock is in Japan, we may never know if it could have done what Splatoon did; sales later in the year once stock isn't an issue may give some indication, but it could be damn near impossible to tell if any growth is attributable directly to AC. In the U.S., the COVID-19 effect is clearly the predominant factor, at least for April & May. That doesn't mean AC couldn't have been just the third game ever to affect baseline sales in the long term, but you can't prove a negative.

With the available data on hand, the only proper answers to whether AC could have had a long-term effect on sales is "We don't know" for Japan and "Most likely not" for the U.S.

I got a better one, Ring Fit Adventure. Check out that game which is much better hardware pusher than Splatoon. Never been a game that’s been out for over 8 months and still sold out. OG model is still the one everyone trying to grab with RFA