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Forums - Sales Discussion - May NPD 2020: Switch ~530K; PS4/XBO >150K

Covid-19:

Nintendo Switch: AWWWWW YESSSS

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Parents trying to keep all their kids entertained at once: dang what now

Switch Lite: Allow me to introduce myself


As you can see from my argumentation, I'm going to go with 500k. 



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I believe Switch has a shot at 500k. Provided supply wasnt heavily constrained.

Ill go with
NSW: 515k
PS4: 200k
XBONE: 185k



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Interested in the numbers since all the consoles (especially Switch) will be affected by supply.



Switch: 550k-650k
Ps4: 170k-240k
Xone:130k-200k



 

mM

Year-to-date dollar sales of Nintendo Switch remain the highest of any hardware platform in US history. The previous high was set by the Nintendo Wii in the year-to-date period ending May 2008.



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No leaks yet, but NSW is:

633,500 > NSW MAY 2020 > 383,700

NPD confirmed that NSW MAY 2020 UNITS were highest ever for May since DS 2009.

DS 2009 is 633,500. Second highest figure since then is DS 2010 with 383,700, so that is our baseline range.

They also confirmed that YTD dollar sales of NSW are the highest ever for a five month period.

Second highest is Wii 2008.

They confirmed the same last month for YTD dollars through April (#1 NSW 2020, #2 Wii 2008).

We know the units sales for the NSW were 2,415,500 with an error of ~20,000 for JAN/FEB uncertainty.

We know the approximate ASP for the Wii 2008 was $250.00.

Based on all of the above, the minimum ASP for the NSW YTD units through April 2020 was $221.61.

Based on all of the above, the minimum ASP for the NSW YTD units through May 2020 was $251.73.

Cannot determine a tighter May unit range even based on all of that. Could use the DS 2009 YTD units as a ballpark top-end YTD constraint, but there is no easy way to determine ASP for that given DS Lite & DSi being available for sale.



trunkswd said:
Mar1217 said:
We don't have the numbers for now but it's kinda obvious that Switch's numbers were bigger than we first thought for this month. I sense an adjustment up coming soon.

Adjustments will be taking place, but we don't have a good range yet. It is way too large to get even close. 

Since Switch is probabily over 400K, it's been 3 months in a row Switch avg for weekly sales is over 100K. I'm sure this is going to continue at least for June too, June is always a better month than May. (Also Switch had shortages this month)

I'm the first one surprised by that btw, wasn't expecting May to be this big yet here we go again. We are living in 2008.



Hopefully we get a hint/leak.

400K would be a 50% drop from April. That sounds dramatic when the high end is currently a 22.6% drop.



I think we can definitely say 2020 will be Switch's peak year and that Nintendo's forecast numbers will have to be adjusted up in their next report.



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trunkswd said:
Ryng said:

Since Switch is probabily over 400K, it's been 3 months in a row Switch avg for weekly sales is over 100K. I'm sure this is going to continue at least for June too, June is always a better month than May. (Also Switch had shortages this month)

I'm the first one surprised by that btw, wasn't expecting May to be this big yet here we go again. We are living in 2008.

We are a bit low even for the lower possible range. I was using information from Benji to help with US figures for May, and he ended up being too low. I am gonna do some minor adjustments, so we are a tiny bit above 400,000 for May. 

I'm not even sure this is the right place to talk about it, but i'd like to see a different kind of VGChartz.

I used to get mad at those numbers for how "wrong" they were back in the day and still are, now i'm better than this, and i don't really care, though i must say i love what you guys did for software.

A collection of official numbers from every kind of source, so whenever someone is curios about the numbers, example someone wonder how much The Witcher 3 has sold, can go to VGChartz and maybe he can see the accurate numbers.

Just wonder, don't you think that could be the way for hardware too? For example last month we got concrete numbers from Pachter, those numbers would have been in the main page as "last update for USA numbers".

Maybe not only official numbers but also the range we can get from the ERA predictions, example we can know that in a month Switch has sold between 250k and 300k, or that PS4 is under 180k ecc

There would also be update for Japan numbers every weeks (that's an easy one), and for other markets like EU and the rest of the world, those update would be more rare but we surely get it some times.

And maybe a worldwide thing in general, using official numbers from Sony and Nintendo, while Microsoft... eh we'll think about something for this one.

In general, what i'm saying, i think i would love to have VGChartz as an encyclopedia of official numbers (some times leaks) for hardware and software, instead of having those estimate with a way too high margin of error...

Those numbers you guys get from VGChartz could still be used as a way to make predictions, kinda like Benji does for the numbers he get from his work.

I'd really love talk about that, if not now in the future (cause i'm kinda busy today lol).