Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 120 million 136 11.87%
 
120.0 - 122.4 million 197 17.19%
 
122.5 - 124.9 million 133 11.61%
 
125.0 - 127.4 million 196 17.10%
 
127.5 - 129.9 million 107 9.34%
 
130.0 - 132.4 million 173 15.10%
 
132.5 - 134.9 million 27 2.36%
 
135.0 - 137.4 million 25 2.18%
 
137.5 - 140.0 million 16 1.40%
 
More than 140 million 136 11.87%
 
Total:1,146

Last week Sony reported that the PS4 had reached 110.4m in life to date shipments by March 31, 2020. This translates to 13.6m for the past twelve months (April 2019 to March 2020), down from 17.8m in the year before. Sony did not provide a PS4 hardware forecast for the current fiscal year ending March 2021, but it's supposed to be announced in August when Sony next reports on their financials.

A continuation of the PS4's decline is expected because the PS5 is still on track for its scheduled launch during the holiday season 2020, but how far can the PS4 go?

...

Bonus question: Hindsight is 20/20. When Microsoft announced their vision for the Xbox One roughly seven years ago, a huge gamer movement formed to push back against Microsoft's policies, such as always online and big restrictions on used game sales. Said movement ultimately succeeded because Microsoft abolished some of their policies before they launched their Xbox One console, demonstrating that gamers do have the power to dictate the direction. However, concurrently the same movement remained silent when Sony announced that they would stop providing the options for free online multiplayer or a paid premium online service, putting everything behind a PS+ subscription. Do you think the collective gaming community should have taken a stand, are you indifferent because you don't play online games anyway, or are you fine with gamers sending the message that it's okay to screw them over as long as it is Sony who is performing the deed?



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120m is guaranteed, the question is how close can it get to or surpass 130m.



I'll stick with 125 million.



OH! I voted and then saw it was the most popular option. Probably a slight low ball. As for your bonus question, I don't have to disassemble my system and spray poison on it every 6 months so it works properly, so I'm fine with a subscription that is required for MP, and has netted me 500+ games across 3 systems.

....I have to add though...That the Vita has totally screwed me over. I'm kinda famous for it in my PSN circle, and have mentioned it here. One or thirty times. A nightmare.

Last edited by COKTOE - on 18 May 2020

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17.8 to 13.6.
That's 4.2 million.
That's a pretty steep drop. About 23.5%
If that same drop holds for the next 12 months, that would mean the PS4 would ship 10.4 million units from April 2020 to March 2021, bringing its lifetime shipment totals to 120.8 million units. That's a drop of 3.2 million units YoY.
But because of the impending launch of the PS5, that drop will be significantly higher. I think the next drop will be roughly 30-33%. That would put the next FY shipment somewhere between 9.1-9.5 million. Just under 120 million.
So, 120 million is the floor. But I think 130 million is the ceiling. I'm guessing somewhere between 125-127.5 million will be the final mark.

Bonus Question: I don't have PS+ subscription and I don't play online multiplayer as a result, so I don't care.



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A little bit under 125m

As for bonus question, paid online needs to go and gaming community needs to take a stand to make companies to drop this policy.



 

Before the quarantine started i would've predicted 125m, now it's very hard to predict. It can't go much over that, it's the end of the life for PS4, but it could possible get to 130 million and maybe a bit over that.

Right now i'll just say 125-130 million, closer to 125 million.



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

I'm still sticking with my 130 million prediction, as there is little to 0 chance the PS4 won't manage to do another 20 million LT.



130m atleast.

I think PS5 & XBX are gonna be 500-600$.
That ontop of the current economy is gonna hurt next gen adoption rates.

If PS4 is lowered to like ~149$ (perm), I could see it selling pretty well for along time.



Final sales number really depend of what strategy Sony takes with PS4 in its final years. It’s been more than 3 and a half years since the last price drop for the system (September 2016).

As comparison, the PS3 received it last price cut on September 2012 ($269), more than a year before the launch of PS4. Ps3 did around 8.2 millions in 2013. PS4 is doing 3.6 millions in 2020 (1 million more compared to What the PS3 was doing in 2013 in the same time gap), so PS4 can do a little bit more than 10 millions for 2020.
However, that depends of how much is the price cut Sony will do, $50-100 and when.

But, it would end around 130-135 million units.