Forums - Sales Discussion - The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

The PS4 shipped 110.4m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 120 million 136 11.87%
 
120.0 - 122.4 million 197 17.19%
 
122.5 - 124.9 million 133 11.61%
 
125.0 - 127.4 million 196 17.10%
 
127.5 - 129.9 million 107 9.34%
 
130.0 - 132.4 million 173 15.10%
 
132.5 - 134.9 million 27 2.36%
 
135.0 - 137.4 million 25 2.18%
 
137.5 - 140.0 million 16 1.40%
 
More than 140 million 136 11.87%
 
Total:1,146

125M if Sony planned a relatively quick transition to next gen, 130M, even 135M, if Sony planned a slower one, with PS4 staying longer on the market as entry level console. Anything more is less likely, it would require not only a big price cut, but also a few new cross gen games and a decent schedule of older games budget versions, and probably a super slim restyling too, and all this done in time, as if the sales curve flattens at a level too low, lifting it again to viable numbers would require, if even possible, an excessive investment compared to possible profits.

So, to cut it short:
125M with little effort and no big mistakes
130M with some more efforts and no mistakes
135M with some more efforts and everything going the best way
More than 135M quite unlikely, requiring far more efforts, perfect timing and a lot of luck. Most probably not worth the investment, that money could be better spent to make a cheaper PS5 version possible earlier.



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RolStoppable said:

Last week Sony reported that the PS4 had reached 110.4m in life to date shipments by March 31, 2020. This translates to 13.6m for the past twelve months (April 2019 to March 2020), down from 17.8m in the year before. Sony did not provide a PS4 hardware forecast for the current fiscal year ending March 2021, but it's supposed to be announced in August when Sony next reports on their financials.

A continuation of the PS4's decline is expected because the PS5 is still on track for its scheduled launch during the holiday season 2020, but how far can the PS4 go?

...

Bonus question: Hindsight is 20/20. When Microsoft announced their vision for the Xbox One roughly seven years ago, a huge gamer movement formed to push back against Microsoft's policies, such as always online and big restrictions on used game sales. Said movement ultimately succeeded because Microsoft abolished some of their policies before they launched their Xbox One console, demonstrating that gamers do have the power to dictate the direction. However, concurrently the same movement remained silent when Sony announced that they would stop providing the options for free online multiplayer or a paid premium online service, putting everything behind a PS+ subscription. Do you think the collective gaming community should have taken a stand, are you indifferent because you don't play online games anyway, or are you fine with gamers sending the message that it's okay to screw them over as long as it is Sony who is performing the deed?

I don't think that's true.

You can still use a lot of internet based services that are subscriptions elsewhere. without PS+ you can still use party chat, share screenshots, live stream to twitch and other services. Use all of the streaming apps like netflix, etc. (Although I think that last one MS changed their minds so you can use it without any XB live if someone can correct me on that?)

And you can still play online on F2P games as well without PS+.



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ArchangelMadzz said:
RolStoppable said:

Last week Sony reported that the PS4 had reached 110.4m in life to date shipments by March 31, 2020. This translates to 13.6m for the past twelve months (April 2019 to March 2020), down from 17.8m in the year before. Sony did not provide a PS4 hardware forecast for the current fiscal year ending March 2021, but it's supposed to be announced in August when Sony next reports on their financials.

A continuation of the PS4's decline is expected because the PS5 is still on track for its scheduled launch during the holiday season 2020, but how far can the PS4 go?

...

Bonus question: Hindsight is 20/20. When Microsoft announced their vision for the Xbox One roughly seven years ago, a huge gamer movement formed to push back against Microsoft's policies, such as always online and big restrictions on used game sales. Said movement ultimately succeeded because Microsoft abolished some of their policies before they launched their Xbox One console, demonstrating that gamers do have the power to dictate the direction. However, concurrently the same movement remained silent when Sony announced that they would stop providing the options for free online multiplayer or a paid premium online service, putting everything behind a PS+ subscription. Do you think the collective gaming community should have taken a stand, are you indifferent because you don't play online games anyway, or are you fine with gamers sending the message that it's okay to screw them over as long as it is Sony who is performing the deed?

I don't think that's true.

You can still use a lot of internet based services that are subscriptions elsewhere. without PS+ you can still use party chat, share screenshots, live stream to twitch and other services. Use all of the streaming apps like netflix, etc. (Although I think that last one MS changed their minds so you can use it without any XB live if someone can correct me on that?)

And you can still play online on F2P games as well without PS+.

Yes the 2 biggest changes on Gold service were offering games for free and taking subscription services from the paywall due to PSN and PS+.

But as far as I know F2P games still depend on Gold.



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I say right around 130 million. I actually do think the inevitable permanent price cuts will help the PS4. There will be people who want a PS5, but can't afford or find one. And then they'll see a PS4 for $200 and jump in.



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140 Millions are possible, i think. Most developers will continue to support the PS4 for years to come :)



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I believe it will be like ps3. selling low amounts every week, but constant, after the PS5 is already solid in its life. Because maybe 6 months after PS5 launch, ps4 will sell like hot bread, since the prices will drop, making it affordable for people who wanted to have it, and didnt have the money for it before.

For the second question, I dont use MP side of games, so I dont care that much, but for sure I would like some of the premium things for free, like saves on the cloud at least.



                          

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I'd say around 125m units lifetime.



I'll stick with my early year estimate of about 130m. I'd be curious to hear from the "more than 140m" crowd to see how they get to that number.



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TruckOSaurus said:
I'll stick with my early year estimate of about 130m. I'd be curious to hear from the "more than 140m" crowd to see how they get to that number.

I reckon it’s because there may be room for a big price cut, still basically full priced since launch, and to push the console into poor/developing countries, and to the people that don’t have the luxury of buying video games like the PS1 and PS2. The world is a different place now than when the PS1/PS2 and PS2/PS3 co-existed as a cheaper last gen/expensive next gen console. 

130m is a reasonable target, but we will find out in the coming years. 



TruckOSaurus said:
I'll stick with my early year estimate of about 130m. I'd be curious to hear from the "more than 140m" crowd to see how they get to that number.

By the end of this year it will be around 118 million units sold o customer.

End of March around 120 million units. Even PS3 sold around 11 million units after PS4 released.